Geopolitics
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?
64%→
7.5%
24h
Markets staged a near-total overnight reversal on US-Iran diplomacy: meeting probability hit 70%, a nuclear deal by June 30 reached 42%, and the airspace-closure threat across all dates fell to single digits.
The defining move of June 11 is Iran. Overnight, the probability of Iran closing its airspace by June 13 collapsed to 8%, down 57 points in a single session — a near-total repricing of near-term conflict risk. The inverse trade paid handsomely: a qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 surged to 70% (+37 points), a nuclear deal by June 30 reached 42% (+27 points), and odds of a ceasefire extension by June 30 hit 71% (+36 points). Switzerland leads the venue market at 35% (+27 points). Markets have, in one session, rotated from confrontation to negotiation. Elsewhere, the New York Knicks seized the NBA Finals narrative, climbing to 78% (+16 points overnight, +25 on the week) to win the championship, while the Spurs faded to 21%. Across the Atlantic, Keir Starmer's departure by December 31 is priced at 84% (+8 points). Crude oil bears are meanwhile winning June: the probability of oil closing below $85 by month-end jumped to 82% (+25 points overnight).
The session's dominant repricing: Iran airspace-closure probabilities collapsed 55–57 points across all dates, from June 12 (now 6%) to June 30 (now 20%). A US-Iran meeting by June 30 stands at 70% (+37 pts), a deal at 42% (+27 pts), and a ceasefire extension at 71% (+36 pts). The 'no meeting' market fell to 29% (-38 pts). Switzerland leads the venue market at 35%. Israel's airspace-closure probabilities also retreated materially, down 15–28 points across near-term dates. The crowd has, in a single day, voted for the negotiating table.
Keiko Fujimori is now a 97% favorite in Peru's second-round presidential election (+19 pts on the week), with Roberto Sánchez Palomino stranded at 3%. In the UK, Keir Starmer's exit by December 31 trades at 84% (+10 pts on the week), with July already at 44%. Andy Burnham leads the succession market at 66% (+18 pts on the week) and is 80% to win the Makerfield by-election. Karen Bass leads the Los Angeles mayoral race at 60%, though Nithya Raman has closed to 38% (+15 pts on the week).
Oil bears are pricing in relief: crude below $85 by June 30 sits at 82% (+25 pts overnight, +28 on the week), while the $105 upside target faded to 17%. SpaceX IPO valuation expectations are being trimmed — a closing market cap above $2.6T is now 12% (-14 pts on the week), though above $2T holds at 70%. OpenAI's IPO timeline is slipping; a 2026 close fell to 48% (-25 pts on the week). US June annual inflation is priced in a tight band: 4.0% leads at 42%, with 3.9% close behind at 36%.
Anthropic commands the AI model leaderboard: 85% probability of holding the top spot at end of June, widening to 92% when style-control is applied. Claude-opus-4-6-thinking leads the June 13 best-model market at 82% (+9 pts overnight). GPT-5.6's near-term release window is closing — the June 15 date is down to 4% (-10 pts overnight), with June 23 at 56%. OpenAI and Google are distant runners in the monthly model race at 3% and 10%, respectively.
The NBA Finals shifted overnight: New York Knicks at 78% (+16 pts) to win the championship, San Antonio Spurs fading to 21%. Knicks 4-1 is now the modal series outcome at 36% (+18 pts). OG Anunoby surged to 30% for Finals MVP (+27 pts overnight), trailing Jalen Brunson at 51%. Carolina Hurricanes lead the Stanley Cup market at 57% (+16 pts on the week). Mexico pulled away in World Cup Group A to 70% (+12 pts overnight). George Pickens to the Miami Dolphins jumped to 42% (+30 pts overnight).
The entertainment markets offer modest drama. 'Obsession' is now 91% likely to finish as May's top domestic grosser through June 30, up 18 points overnight and 63 on the week — a film that apparently needed the prediction market to cement its box-office legacy. Stranger Things fans remain in a 6% probability purgatory for any new episode by December 31, unchanged and unsparing.
If the crowd is right, the next US-Iran meeting will be held in Switzerland — quieter than the Strait of Hormuz, and considerably easier to book.
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