Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
As hopes for a near-term Washington-Tehran ceasefire evaporate, traders now see Iranian action against a Gulf state as all but certain — even as longer-dated relief bets keep climbing.
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Traders now give a September rate hike 48% odds, up 12 points on the week and ahead of a no-change vote for the first time in weeks, while contracts on an Iran strike against a Gulf state jumped 16 points in a day to 68%. South Carolina Republicans are meanwhile coalescing around a single Senate nominee, and LeBron James's market for a Miami return keeps climbing.
Traders slashed the odds of a July rate rise to 7% even as shipping-lane and Iran-strike risk in the Gulf cooled sharply, while a stunning surge lifted a little-known South Carolina Republican to front-runner status.
Prediction markets now assign a 91% chance Shabana Mahmood becomes the UK's next Chancellor of the Exchequer, a probability that has surged 86 points in a week as rival Ed Miliband's odds collapsed 66 points to just 2%.
Markets now price an 84% chance of Iranian military action against a Gulf state, up 58 points this week, even as odds of a US-brokered halt collapsed to 10%.
Prediction markets flipped two leadership races overnight, naming Shabana Mahmood the clear favorite for UK Chancellor and Darline Graham Nordone the frontrunner for South Carolina's GOP Senate nod — both were afterthoughts a week ago.
Traders have all but erased a Trump-Netanyahu sit-down before July 20, even as they price an 80% chance of Iranian military action against a Gulf state today and watch Hormuz shipping forecasts keep sliding.
Traders now back Shabana Mahmood for Chancellor at 83%, up 49 points in a single day, as parallel bets on the Home and Foreign Secretary posts swung just as sharply toward Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband.
Traders now give just 31% odds that 30 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz by month's end, down 63 points in a day. Meanwhile they price Iranian military action against a Gulf state at 94% for today and 74% for tomorrow — a pairing that reads less like noise than a coherent bet on escalation.
Traders have flipped their Fed bet: a 25-basis-point September hike is now favored at 51%, up from a minority view a week ago. Meanwhile South Carolina Republicans consolidated fast behind one Senate candidate, and Gulf shipping risk collided with its own deadline.
Contracts on Iranian military action against a Gulf state surged to 65-74% across near-term windows, even as traders' odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 slid to 30%, down 43 points on the week.
Traders push the odds of a US blockade on Iran to 58% by year end while the chance of near-term peace talks craters to 7%, even as World Cup and Fed markets reprice elsewhere.
Traders erased expectations that the next GPT or Grok model will debut atop the leaderboard, while Google's math model vaulted past Anthropic's for the first time this cycle.
Prediction markets stood down from Gulf-strike bets across four separate dates this week, even as they pushed the Strait of Hormuz's return to normal further into the future — a sign traders see the acute crisis cooling but the shipping disruption lingering.
Odds of a 2026 rate hike jumped to 58%, up 9 points on the day, as traders across three separate Fed contracts abandoned bets on a steady pause. Gulf shipping risk and a scrambled AI release calendar added to the day's volatility.
Traders now put Marine Le Pen's odds of being the National Rally's 2027 presidential candidate at 94%, up 74 points in a day, as Jordan Bardella's collapse to 4% marks one of the sharpest reversals prediction markets have priced this year. The reversal follows her ineligibility-ban appeal market settling at 94% just as it hit its deadline.
Traders now see a 96% chance Graham Platner exits his race, a 67-point swing in a day, while Iran-shipping contracts spiked above 90% and Hormuz-normalization bets sank to 8%.
Traders slashed the odds of a July 10 US-Iran meeting to just 3%, a 42-point weekly collapse, even as they piled into a July 9 GPT-5.6 launch and a LeBron return to Cleveland.
A cluster of near-term bets repriced hard overnight: the AI industry's launch clock, Tehran's diplomatic calendar, Whitehall's next top diplomat, and LeBron James's next jersey all moved by double digits in a single day.
Traders have pushed the odds of an imminent GPT-5.6 launch to fresh highs even as they cut expectations for a Gulf de-escalation — a reminder that certainty in one market rarely travels to another. Elsewhere, crypto sale commitments, a Ukrainian frontline city, and LeBron's next jersey all saw double-digit swings.
Strait traffic odds halve in a week as Iran talk hopes implode; GPT-5.6 crystallises for Monday while the Fed holds firm.
A week-long collapse in Persian Gulf threat premia coincides with a late surge in AI model anticipation—and Colorado Republicans hand their primary to a 24-hour sensation.
Markets delivered two clean verdicts on July 1: one AI embargo apparently lifted, one diplomatic deadline quietly expired.
A single session repriced trans-Atlantic relations, big-tech rankings, and SpaceX's debut valuation all at once.
A single trading session wiped out the Lebanon-Israel normalization trade while Balkan finality and a British political countdown sharpened into focus.
A Serbian presidency ends and a Middle East diplomatic taboo shatters — at least in the estimation of prediction markets — as two 50-point-plus swings define the day.
Markets near-certify US forces are back in Venezuela while London's leadership crisis shifts from imminent to postponed; GPT-5.6 runs out of June.
The week's sharpest single-market reprice puts US military re-entry in Venezuela at near-certainty, while the Iran nuclear deal and GPT-5.6's June launch evaporate together.
Prediction markets spent the week pricing three simultaneous implosions: a British prime ministership, a commodity floor, and an OpenAI product roadmap.
Prediction markets spent the week pricing out optimism on both a nuclear accord and a British premiership — while the AI race ran a full lap without OpenAI or Google keeping up.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
Markets erased majority odds of an imminent US-Iran meeting overnight, yet simultaneously raised the chances of a uranium deal. Across the Channel, traders now price Keir Starmer leaving office by July 31 at nearly three-to-one.
Markets wholesale repriced who signs the US-Iran deal overnight, while crude oil marches past $75 and the Fed turns hawkish.
Prediction markets have swung violently toward a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough this week, dragging crude oil down with them. Peru's election margin, meanwhile, has been filed to the nearest decimal point.
Prediction markets recorded one of their largest geopolitical repricings in recent memory as the US-Iran diplomatic cluster moved en masse; crude oil followed within hours.
Prediction markets logged their largest single-session swing of the year on the US-Iran front, while crude oil priced out its geopolitical risk premium and Elon Musk's UFC attendance evaporated overnight.
A week of relentless buying has pushed US-Iran permanent peace to 50% and a nuclear deal to 66%, with traders treating June 30 as the most consequential date on the calendar.
Prediction markets swung decisively toward a US-Iran agreement this week, dragging crude toward $80 and reordering every adjacent market in its wake.
A single session repriced both stories: traders stripped Elon Musk of his own IPO ceremony role while simultaneously marking up the odds of a US-Iran nuclear agreement to levels not seen before this week.
Markets staged a near-total overnight reversal on US-Iran diplomacy: meeting probability hit 70%, a nuclear deal by June 30 reached 42%, and the airspace-closure threat across all dates fell to single digits.