Science & Tech
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
82%→
78%
24h
A single session repriced both stories: traders stripped Elon Musk of his own IPO ceremony role while simultaneously marking up the odds of a US-Iran nuclear agreement to levels not seen before this week.
Thursday's session opened two parallel narratives that traders spent the day widening. On the IPO floor, Elon Musk's odds of appearing at SpaceX's bell ceremony collapsed 52 points in 24 hours to just 29%, with Brian Bjelde — the company's VP of People — surging to 74% as the likely standard-bearer. The IPO's opening price window of $150–$200 jumped 32 points to 82%, and traders now give a 78% chance the company closes above a $2 trillion market cap. Across the Atlantic and into the Persian Gulf, the Iran diplomacy cluster sustained its week-long rally: a US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 trades at 72%, up 19 points on the week, while a full nuclear deal by month-end reached 44%, up 18 points. A qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 68%, a 31-point weekly rise. In Lima, markets rendered a near-final verdict on Peru's presidential race: Keiko Fujimori at 96%, up 34 points on the week, as Roberto Sánchez Palomino fell to a terminal 3%. And in the AI league table, Anthropic's claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged 52 points over seven days to 78% as traders' consensus pick for tomorrow's top model.
Iran diplomacy dominated the week's volume. Traders price a US-Iran ceasefire extension by June 30 at 72%, up 19 points in seven days; a nuclear deal by month-end reached 44%, up 18 points. Switzerland leads as venue at 32% (+23pts/7d). Lifting the Hormuz blockade by June 30 trades at 62% (+16pts/7d). One discordant note: Iran closing its airspace by August spiked 12 points to 46%, suggesting markets are hedging the optimism with a simultaneous contingency bid.
Peru's presidential market reached effective resolution: Keiko Fujimori at 96%, up 34 points on the week, her rival Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 3%. California's gubernatorial race coalesced around Xavier Becerra at 88% (+16pts/7d). In the UK, traders give Andy Burnham a 65% chance of becoming next prime minister in 2026, while Keir Starmer's odds of surviving through year-end stand at just 18% — exit by December 31 trades at 82%, up 10 points on the week.
SpaceX's IPO reshaped itself overnight. Musk's bell-ceremony odds cratered to 29% (-52pts/24h); Brian Bjelde surged to 74% (+32pts/24h). Opening price of $150–$200 jumped to 82%; closing above a $2 trillion market cap trades at 78%, up 8 points on the day. Separately, crude oil's decline deepened: traders give a 90% chance WTI prints below $85 by month-end, up 35 points on the week, with the $80-or-below threshold now at 50% (+19pts/7d).
Anthropic's claude-opus-4-6-thinking posted the week's largest single-market move: up 52 points to 78% as traders' pick for the best AI model on June 13. Anthropic leads the company-level question at 86% for best model by month-end; OpenAI sits at 3%. With style controls applied, Anthropic's lead widens to 90%. GPT-5.6's release by June 30 is priced at 89% (+4pts/24h), suggesting the market expects OpenAI to ship before it leads.
The New York Knicks firmed to 80% for the NBA Finals, up 27 points on the week, with Jalen Brunson leading Finals MVP odds at 49%. In hockey, Carolina Hurricanes surged to 80% for the Stanley Cup (+25pts/7d), directly at the expense of Vegas Golden Knights (now 20%, -25pts/7d). Jordan Staal jumped 38 points in 24 hours to 52% for the Conn Smythe Trophy. In MLS, Choupo-Moting spiked 26 points to 26% for the Golden Boot. South Korea gained 19 points to 34% in World Cup Group A, narrowing Mexico's lead to 64%.
'Disclosure Day's' opening-weekend market weakened: the >$47m option fell 12 points to 22%, with the $39–$43m band now leading at 31%. For the year's highest-grossing title, Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds at 44% but Toy Story 5 gained 15 points on the week to 31%, tightening the race heading into summer. Avengers: Doomsday slipped to 14%.
The one number markets couldn't move: Jesus Christ's return before 2027, unchanged at 2% — some positions are held on faith alone.
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