What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Price Iran Peace at 97% After Week-Long 92-Point Surge
Prediction markets recorded one of their largest geopolitical repricings in recent memory as the US-Iran diplomatic cluster moved en masse; crude oil followed within hours.
The week's defining move belongs to Iran. Markets now price a permanent US-Iran peace deal at 97%, up 92 points over seven days and 12 on the day, on volume exceeding $12 million — the kind of conviction traders show when an outcome is no longer a question of if but of paperwork. The downstream effects are legible across linked markets: crude oil hitting $80 by month-end is now priced at 90%, up 58 points on the week, while the probability of Iran closing its airspace has collapsed to 8%, off 42 points in seven days. A diplomatic meeting before June 21 sits at 90%; the venue debate has rotated from Switzerland (55%, down 17 on the day) toward Qatar (39%, up 27), a shift traders are reading as directional. Separately, SpaceX clearing a $3 trillion valuation by June 30 surged 46 points to 54%, the session's loudest non-Iran signal.
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
85%→91%24h
$107,273 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
14%→4.8%24h
$96,247 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
94%→93%24h
$13,992 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
82%→90%24h
$28,639 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
8.1%→54%24h
$31,776 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
12%→8.5%24h
$54,908 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran trade dominated every metric. A permanent peace deal prices at 97% (+92 pts/7d, +12/24h); oil sanctions relief at 91% (+68/7d); asset unfreezing at 70% (+49/7d). Airspace closure bled across the curve — June 30 at 8% (-42/7d), July 31 at 19% (-32/7d). Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 sits at 60%, up 33 on the week. Qatar (39%, +27/24h) is now challenging Switzerland (55%, -17/24h) as the preferred meeting venue.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?60%▼ 4 24h
Politics & Elections
Peru's Fujimori is a near-certainty to win the second round by precisely 0.2–0.3 percentage points: markets put that bracket at 93%, up 75 points on the week. The Fable 5 restoration market logged a notable slip: the June 22 date fell 22 points to 38%, while July 1 holds at 80%. Andy Burnham leads Makerfield at 80%. Brazil's Lula leads at 52% heading into the 2026 presidential election.
SpaceX was the session's second headline: the $3 trillion valuation ceiling by June 30 jumped 46 points to 54%, while sub-$1.5T floor bets collapsed symmetrically. Crude oil at or below $80 by month-end sits at 90% (up 58/7d), a move traders are reading as downstream of Iran. Anthropic IPO by October 31 gained 12 points to 58%; by year-end, 78%. US June inflation markets favor 3.8% at 42%.
Anthropic retains its AI supremacy position: markets assign it 92% odds of holding the best-model crown through June, gaining 3 points on the day. GPT-5.6 is expected in the June 22–28 window at 78% (+9/24h); the June 23 specific date slipped 16 points to 14%, implying a later-week release. Google holds 6% of the end-of-June best-model market.
Oklahoma surged to 51% favorite for the College World Series (+31 pts/24h) as Texas (-26), Georgia (-25), and West Virginia (-14) all cratered — one result rewrote the bracket. At IEM Cologne, FURIA advanced to 54% Grand Final odds (+22/24h) while Vitality leads the outright at 38%. Paper Rex extended to 64% in Valorant Masters London. Spain holds Group H at 72% despite a 7-point day drop.
MrBeast's latest video is tracking toward the 50–60M week-one bracket (36%, +24 pts/24h), cooling from the 60–70M range (64%, -18 pts/24h) — prediction markets as real-time Nielsen. Toy Story 5's opening weekend most likely lands in the $158–171M bracket at 49%. Spider-Man: Brand New Day remains 2026's presumptive box office champion at 52%.