What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Price Iran Deal Near-Certainty; Oil Collapses on Diplomacy Wave
Prediction markets have swung violently toward a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough this week, dragging crude oil down with them. Peru's election margin, meanwhile, has been filed to the nearest decimal point.
The week's defining trade was a sprint into Iran deal optimism. Markets now price a 94% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21 — up 77 points in seven days — with traders converging on Switzerland as the venue at 80%, itself up 72 points on the week. The crowd expects Trump to agree to troop withdrawal from the Iranian region at 74% (up 62 points on the week) and to unfreeze Iranian assets at 88%, though enrichment concessions remain more contested at 60%. The diplomatic repricing is dragging oil with it: crude hitting $95 by month-end has collapsed to just 8%, down 56 points in a week, while the probability of oil trading below $75 has surged to 90%. Elsewhere, Peru's election arithmetic has become almost actuarial — Fujimori's margin of victory is now priced at exactly 0.2–0.3 percentage points with 92% confidence, up 63 points on the week.
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
55%→80%24h
$141,421 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
30%→74%24h
$201,335 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
93%→92%24h
$27,997 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
39%→60%24h
$642,441 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?
6.5%→8%24h
$25,545 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
7.5%→6.5%24h
$14,558 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
64%→24%24h
$8,222 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran signal is unambiguous. Traders have placed a 94% probability on a US-Iran meeting by June 21 — up 77 points in seven days — with Switzerland the overwhelming venue choice at 80%. Expected concessions: troop withdrawal at 74% (up 62 points on the week), asset unfreezing at 88%. Iran ending uranium enrichment by June 30 sits at a more hedged 60%, suggesting markets see a deal framework but not full capitulation. Transit fee demands at 10% remain the long shot of the menu.
Peru's second round has resolved to decimal-point precision: Fujimori's margin lands in the 0.2–0.3% bracket at 92%, up 63 points this week, migrating cleanly away from the 0.3–0.4% band. In Britain, markets price a 32% chance Starmer exits by June 30 (up 12 points today) and 70% by October. Romania's prime ministerial succession is live: Alexandru Nazare surged to 27% (up 22 points), displacing Veștea. Makerfield belongs to Andy Burnham at 85%.
Iran diplomacy is doing the work of an OPEC cut: crude hitting $95 by month-end trades at just 8%, down 56 points in a week, while the sub-$75 scenario has surged to 90%. SpaceX's valuation floor looks firm — a $1.5T print is priced at only 6%, down 42 points on the week — while the $3T ceiling sits at 35%. Brazil's central bank is expected to cut at 94%. The Anthropic IPO horizon keeps extending: December 2026 at 78%, with October at 34%.
Anthropic holds near-total dominance in markets' AI model rankings: 92% for best model in June, 82% for July, with Google at 8% and OpenAI at 2%. The Claude Fable 5 restoration market points to July 1 as the likeliest return date at 66% — down 15 points today — suggesting traders expect an absence measured in weeks rather than days.
World Cup Golden Boot is the day's single largest market by volume at $2.7M. Lionel Messi surged to 25% (up 19 points today, 20 on the week), narrowly edging Mbappé at 24%. Argentina leads Group J at 86%, France leads Group I at 78%. LeBron James remains a Laker at 72% probability. The College World Series crown shifted to North Carolina at 40% after Oklahoma fell 29 points on the day.
New York Knicks9.3%▼ 10 24hLos Angeles Lakers72%▲ 4 24hSan Antonio Spurs8%▲ 2 24hGolden State Warriors16%▲ 1 24h
Culture
MrBeast's video week-one range resolved overnight: the 60–70M bracket collapsed 41 points to 24% while 50–60M surged to 77%, with day-four views at 49–50M a near-certainty at 96%. Toy Story 5's opening weekend clusters around $158–171M at 52%. Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads the year's box-office race at 56%, with Toy Story 5 trailing at 24%.
The market's one lacuna: 'Show E' commands 50% of the top Netflix show vote — either the most anticipated original of the year, or a ticker symbol awaiting a name.
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