What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Signing Roster Upended; Sharif Surges as Ceremony Odds Crater
Markets wholesale repriced who signs the US-Iran deal overnight, while crude oil marches past $75 and the Fed turns hawkish.
Prediction markets staged a dramatic reshuffling of the US-Iran deal's cast on Wednesday. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's odds of signing the agreement collapsed 72 points to just 22%, while Shehbaz Sharif surged to 64% as the presumptive signatory — a near-complete reversal in under 24 hours. The signing ceremony itself fared worse: JD Vance, Abbas Araghchi, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff each shed 58 to 66 points, suggesting markets no longer expect an imminent formal event. Yet deal substance looks firmer — traders price Trump agreeing to troop withdrawal at 78%, up 54 points on the week. Elsewhere, crude oil's $75 floor by month-end reached 94% probability, up 70 points over seven days. And in a hawkish pivot, a Federal Reserve July rate hike jumped to 38%, adding 31 points on the day.
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
94%→22%24h
$38,692 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
89%→94%24h
$44,390 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
92%→26%24h
$66,050 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
74%→78%24h
$529,421 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
68%→10%24h
$18,944 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
78%→61%24h
$52,087 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
88%→92%24h
$35,792 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The US-Iran deal's cast changed overnight. Ghalibaf cratered 72 points to 22% as presumptive signatory; Shehbaz Sharif surged to 64%. All four named ceremony attendees — Vance, Araghchi, Kushner, Witkoff — shed 58–66 points each. Yet markets still price troop withdrawal at 78%, up 54 points on the week — the deal's substance holding even as its staging dissolves. An Israel-Lebanon meeting by June 22 is now just 10%, down 58 points.
N'Kiyla Thomas is near-certain for Oklahoma's Democratic Senate primary at 92% (+50 points on the week). Markets see Starmer surviving to month-end — June 30 departure odds stand at just 20% — but 81% of traders price him gone by October 31. The Claude Fable 5 US restoration market drifted further: June 26 fell to 14% (-36 points), with July 1 the modal date at 38%.
Crude oil's $75 floor by June 30 sits at 94%, up 70 points on the week, with the $70 target now at 48%. The o1 token launch leads crypto: markets price 97% odds it debuts above $300M FDV and 88% for $400M, both up roughly 77 points since last week. Fed rate-hike expectations surged — a 2026 hike is now 52% (+19 points), with July the leading meeting at 38% (+31 points on the day).
Anthropic's AI model crown looks uncontested: traders price a 95% probability it holds the top spot through June, falling to 82% through July. Google and OpenAI each sit in single digits. Movement here has been minimal — this market reads less as a horse race than a slow-motion coronation.
England stormed to 90% in World Cup Group L (+20 points on the day), with Croatia tumbling to 3%. Group K flipped: Colombia edged to 48% over Portugal's 45%, an 18-point swing. USA leads Group D at 70% (+31 points on the week). In the College World Series final, North Carolina holds at 58% to Oklahoma's 41%, both climbing on the day.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day surged to 58% (+17 points on the week) as likely 2026's highest-grossing film, while Toy Story 5 slid to 20%. Toy Story 5's opening weekend range shifted upward to $171–184M at 49%. The MrBeast day-five view count is near-settled at 88% for 52–52.5M views.