Markets reprice the week
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
59%→
5.5%
24h
$3,670,798 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?
9%→
90%
24h
$11,757 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?
28%→
86%
24h
$30,415 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
65%→
12%
24h
$291,418 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
12%→
3.4%
24h
$7,556 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
42%→
64%
24h
$529,194 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
42%→
74%
24h
$225,948 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
74%→
28%
24h
$251,069 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5.5%▼ 54 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?12%▼ 52 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?28%▼ 46 24h
Switzerland74%▲ 31 24hNo Meeting by June 3024%▼ 17 24h
June 223.4%▼ 9 24hJune 3083%▼ 2 24h
20+94%▲ 4 24h40+46%▼ 16 24h60+14%▼ 14 24h80+7%▼ 12 24h
Politics & Elections
Wilson 15%+90%▲ 82 24hWilson 10–15%3.6%▼ 19 24hWilson <5%3.9%▼ 8 24hWilson 5–10%2.4%▼ 7 24h
June 3064%▲ 23 24hJuly 3186%▲ 11 24hAugust 3193%▲ 9 24hOctober 3194%▲ 2 24h
Pamela Evette4.4%▼ 6 24hAlan Wilson96%▲ 8 24h
Andy Burnham94%▲ 6 24hNo Next PM in 20262.6%▼ 3 24h
July 170%▼ 4 24hJune 2218%▼ 8 24hJune 2657%▼ 4 24h
25 bps increase25%▼ 2 24hNo change74%▲ 2 24h25 bps decrease1.6%
Economy & Crypto
Fed rate hike in 2026?66%▲ 6 24h
↓ $7565%▼ 3 24h↑ $952.9%▼ 1 24h↓ $7021%▼ 7 24h↓ $601.8%▼ 1 24h
October Meeting66%▲ 20 24hSeptember Meeting50%▲ 18 24hJuly Meeting26%▲ 6 24h
↑ $4,40016%▼ 17 24h↓ $3,8004.2%▼ 2 7d
$1.5T-$2.0T18%▼ 22 7d$2.0T-$2.5T50%▲ 12 7d$2.5T-$3.0T25%▲ 3 24h$1.0T-$1.5T3.1%▼ 3 24h
↓$1.5T5.5%▼ 1 24h↓$1.45T4.7%▼ 2 24h↓$1.4T3.1%▼ 11 7d↓$1.3T2.4%▼ 9 7d
Science & Tech
June 22–June 2880%▼ 9 24hNot released by June 2818%▲ 8 24h
Anthropic95%▼ 2 24hGoogle3.8%▲ 2 24hOpenAI1.9%▼ 2 7d
Anthropic94%▼ 2 24hGoogle2.9%▲ 2 24hOpenAI1.6%▼ 3 7d
Anthropic86%▲ 1 24hOpenAI3.2%▲ 1 24hGoogle11%▼ 1 24h
Sports
Xander Schauffele70%▲ 52 24hCollin Morikawa53%▲ 43 24hSam Burns44%▲ 22 24hSahith Theegala28%▲ 20 24h
Collin Morikawa76%▲ 54 24hDustin Johnson18%▼ 36 24hScottie Scheffler82%▲ 24 24hSam Burns68%▲ 23 24h
Raphinha34%▼ 42 24hArda Güler18%▼ 34 24hChristian Pulisic48%▼ 20 24hMiguel Almirón8.5%▼ 6 24h
Falcons27%▲ 20 24hTeam Spirit35%▲ 10 24hFURIA22%▲ 6 24hAurora12%▲ 2 24h
Falcons44%▲ 33 24hSpirit56%▲ 22 24hFURIA58%▲ 43 7dAurora42%▲ 1 24h
North Carolina58%▲ 4 24hOklahoma42%▼ 4 24h
Culture
158-171m86%▲ 59 24h171-184m7%▼ 35 24h145-158m6.8%▼ 6 24h
Spider-Man: Brand New Day62%▲ 4 24hToy Story 513%▼ 3 24hThe Super Mario Galaxy Movie4%▼ 1 24hThe Odyssey3%▲ 1 24h
Spider-Man: Brand New Day21%▲ 4 24hAvengers: Doomsday74%▲ 3 24hToy Story 52.9%▼ 3 24h
Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.
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