Sunday, June 21, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 11

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Markets reprice the week

The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Geopolitics

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

74%→ 98% 24h
$206,671 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

34%→ 98% 24h
$983,001 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

64%→ 86% 24h
$535,394 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

22%→ 98% 24h
$74,480 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

30%→ 98% 24h
$45,715 traded · 24h
Culture

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

86%→ 78% 24h
$58,403 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

30%→ 98% 24h
$20,565 traded · 24h
Sports

Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

27%→ 59% 24h
$202,313 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? $1,884,678 · 24h
June 2198%▲ 64 24h
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? $160,348 · 24h
J.D. Vance98%▲ 76 24hSteve Witkoff97%▲ 20 24hJared Kushner98%▲ 24 24hMarco Rubio2.1%▼ 5 24h
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...? $45,715 · 24h
June 3098%▲ 69 24h
Who will meet with Iran by June 30? $31,592 · 24h
J.D. Vance98%▲ 68 24hJared Kushner97%▲ 26 24hSteve Witkoff98%▲ 26 24hMarco Rubio3.7%▼ 6 24h
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen? $943,706 · 24h
Switzerland98%▲ 25 24h
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) $589,317 · 24h
Starmer - UK PM41%▼ 26 24hPetro - Colombia President51%▲ 20 24hDíaz-Canel - Cuba President3.5%▲ 2 24h

Politics & Elections

Starmer out by...? $1,518,457 · 24h
June 3086%▲ 22 24hJune 2264%▲ 42 24hJuly 3194%▲ 9 24hJune 2680%▲ 26 24h
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? $121,605 · 24h
June 2212%▼ 6 24hJune 2636%▼ 22 24hJuly 170%▼ 1 24h
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? $497,307 · 24h
Andy Burnham96%▲ 2 24hNo Next PM in 20261.7%▼ 1 24h
NY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory $21,792 · 24h
Conley 15%+42%▲ 22 24hConley 10–15%34%▼ 13 24hConley 5–10%8%▼ 14 24hConley <5%9%▼ 12 24h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by...? $30,272 · 24h
December 3138%▲ 23 24hJune 3016%▲ 14 24h
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner $123,906 · 24h
Darializa Avila Chevalier38%▼ 14 24hAdriano Espaillat60%▲ 12 24h

Economy & Crypto

Fed rate hike in 2026? $37,310 · 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼ 3 24h
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month $44,545 · 24h
$1.5T-$2.0T16%▼ 1 24h$2.5T-$3.0T26%▲ 14 7d$2.0T-$2.5T50%▼ 1 24h$1.0T-$1.5T3.2%▼ 4 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? $192,202 · 24h
↓ $7557%▼ 8 24h↓ $7013%▼ 8 24h↑ $955.8%▲ 3 24h↑ $1002.3%▲ 1 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30? $54,724 · 24h
↓$1.5T5%▼ 14 7d↓$1.45T3.7%▼ 1 24h↑$3.0T11%▲ 5 7d↓$1.35T1.8%▼ 5 7d
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? $41,017 · 24h
SpaceX86%▲ 3 24hAnthropic13%▼ 1 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? $177,443 · 24h
0 (0 bps)81%▲ 5 7d1 (25 bps)14%▲ 2 24h2 (50 bps)2.6%▼ 1 24h

Science & Tech

When will GPT-5.6 be released? $64,427 · 24h
Not released by June 2881%▲ 63 24hJune 22–June 2818%▼ 62 24h
GPT-5.6 released by...? $21,873 · 24h
June 3032%▼ 49 24hJune 233.2%▼ 1 24hJuly 3195%▼ 2 24h
Which company has the best Math AI model end of June? $24,810 · 24h
Google80%▲ 1 24hOpenAI7.5%▼ 10 24hAnthropic12%▲ 6 24h
Which company has best AI model end of June? $196,895 · 24h
Anthropic96%▲ 1 24hGoogle3.5%▼ 6 7d
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On) $76,588 · 24h
Anthropic96%▲ 2 24hGoogle2.5%▼ 3 7d
Which company has best AI model end of July? $164,493 · 24h
OpenAI5.3%▲ 2 24hAnthropic84%▼ 2 24hGoogle9.6%▼ 1 24h

Sports

PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner $1,054,660 · 24h
Wyndham Clark72%▲ 39 24hXander Schauffele2.5%▼ 10 24hScottie Scheffler12%▲ 5 24hTom Kim2.2%▼ 2 24h
IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner $622,555 · 24h
Falcons59%▲ 32 24hFURIA41%▲ 19 24h
World Cup Group F Winner $179,867 · 24h
Netherlands77%▲ 34 24hSweden3.5%▼ 26 24hJapan20%▼ 8 24h
NCAA Baseball: 2026 College World Series Champion $34,884 · 24h
Oklahoma68%▲ 26 24hNorth Carolina32%▼ 26 24h
World Cup: Third-Place Teams to Advance $37,562 · 24h
Ecuador24%▼ 34 24hMorocco2.1%▼ 22 24hScotland60%▼ 7 24hIvory Coast7%▼ 4 24h
Valorant Masters London 2026: Winner $27,698 · 24h
Leviatán34%▲ 14 24hPaper Rex66%▼ 3 24h

Culture

"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office $211,676 · 24h
158-171m78%▼ 8 24h145-158m21%▲ 14 24h
"Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office $27,066 · 24h
14-15m67%▲ 18 24h<14m32%▼ 4 24h
Highest grossing movie in 2026? $84,232 · 24h
Toy Story 58.8%▼ 5 24hAvengers: Doomsday14%▲ 2 24hThe Odyssey3%▲ 1 7d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? $21,937 · 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?1.9%

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

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