Monday, June 22, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 12

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Markets reprice the week

The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Politics & Elections

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

86%→ 88% 24h
$406,962 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?

7%→ 97% 24h
$16,293 traded · 24h
Culture

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?

32%→ 96% 24h
$29,826 traded · 24h
Culture

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

78%→ 98% 24h
$39,910 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

12%→ 6.5% 24h
$37,568 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

22%→ 6% 24h
$35,849 traded · 24h
Sports

Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

26%→ 66% 24h
$46,925 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

56%→ 98% 24h
$95,545 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by...? $23,005 · 24h
June 3097%▲ 90 24hJuly 3198%▲ 86 24h
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? $178,848 · 24h
Abbas Araghchi6%▼ 16 24hMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf17%▼ 4 24hSteve Witkoff2.8%▼ 13 24hSheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani9%▲ 2 24h
Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony? $159,433 · 24h
Jared Kushner9.5%▼ 34 24hJD Vance10%▼ 22 24hSteve Witkoff14%▼ 24 24hShehbaz Sharif12%▼ 21 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? $264,361 · 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?3.6%▼ 31 7d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? $91,060 · 24h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?2.5%▼ 1 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? $583,286 · 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?5.5%▼ 2 24h

Politics & Elections

Starmer out by...? $1,749,481 · 24h
June 3088%▲ 2 24hJuly 3196%▲ 2 24hAugust 3198%▲ 1 24hJune 2272%▲ 8 24h
Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá $212,475 · 24h
Iván Cepeda Castro98%▲ 42 24h
Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Turnout $30,219 · 24h
60-64%98%▲ 46 24h56-60%1.5%▼ 44 24h
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? $130,993 · 24h
June 226.5%▼ 6 24hJuly 142%▼ 28 24hJune 2628%▼ 8 24h
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? $580,172 · 24h
Andy Burnham93%▼ 3 24h
Fed Decision in July? $1,106,460 · 24h
25 bps increase24%▲ 3 24hNo change74%▼ 4 24h

Economy & Crypto

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? $341,585 · 24h
↓ $7584%▲ 27 24h↓ $7025%▲ 12 24h↑ $952.3%▼ 3 24h
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June? $20,538 · 24h
↑ $4,40014%▲ 4 24h↓ $3,8002.5%▼ 2 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? $83,235 · 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026?60%▼ 2 24h
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch? $26,048 · 24h
$300M32%▼ 17 24h$200M64%▼ 3 24h$100M97%▲ 16 7d$1B1.5%▼ 12 7d
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month $37,043 · 24h
$1.5T-$2.0T14%▼ 2 24h$2.5T-$3.0T25%▲ 15 7d$2.0T-$2.5T55%▲ 6 24h$1.0T-$1.5T3.4%▼ 6 7d
Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June? $54,010 · 24h
↓ $6026%▼ 6 24h

Science & Tech

When will GPT-5.6 be released? $131,704 · 24h
June 22–June 2843%▲ 25 24hNot released by June 2858%▼ 23 24h
GPT-5.6 released by...? $36,261 · 24h
June 3056%▲ 24 24hJune 233.1%▼ 26 7dJuly 3192%▼ 2 24h
Which company has best AI model end of June? $165,847 · 24h
Anthropic93%▼ 3 24hGoogle4%▼ 3 7dOpenAI2.4%▲ 1 24h
Which company has best AI model end of July? $182,126 · 24h
Google10%▲ 1 24hOpenAI5.3%▼ 1 7dAnthropic84%▲ 1 7d

Sports

World Cup Group G Winner $204,014 · 24h
Egypt66%▲ 40 24hBelgium24%▼ 39 24hIran10%▲ 3 24h
World Cup: Player to score $25,775 · 24h
Darwin Nunez10%▼ 36 24hMateo Kovačić9.5%▼ 20 24hArda Güler17%▼ 6 24hFerran Torres55%▼ 18 24h
World Cup Group F Winner $61,669 · 24h
Netherlands76%▲ 30 7dSweden2.9%▼ 1 24hJapan21%▲ 1 24h
NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team $27,475 · 24h
Utah Jazz27%▲ 27 24hMiami Heat70%▲ 19 24hBoston Celtics34%▲ 16 24hMilwaukee Bucks8%▼ 7 24h
World Cup Group H Winner $193,124 · 24h
Spain86%▲ 13 24hUruguay11%▼ 10 24hCape Verde2.2%▼ 1 24h
World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties $156,770 · 24h
10+ missed penalties7%▼ 10 24h5+ missed penalties70%▲ 11 24h15+ missed penalties4%▼ 10 7d

Culture

"Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office $56,781 · 24h
<14m96%▲ 65 24h14-15m2.6%▼ 64 24h
"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office $109,588 · 24h
158-171m98%▲ 19 24h
Highest grossing movie in 2026? $239,978 · 24h
Toy Story 58.1%▼ 1 24hSpider-Man: Brand New Day66%▲ 15 7dThe Odyssey3.5%▲ 2 7dThe Super Mario Galaxy Movie3.1%▼ 1 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? $35,360 · 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?1.9%

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

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