Markets reprice the week
The crowd moved its odds; the bulletin below shows where.
Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Geopolitics
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
29%→
93%
24h
$29,553 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?
9.3%→
30%
24h
$38,017 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
30%→
80%
24h
$424,916 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
58%→
79%
24h
$37,117 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
56%→
19%
24h
$27,850 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?
32%→
93%
24h
$17,530 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
8.1%→
2.9%
24h
$29,311 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
79%→
27%
24h
$21,016 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
June 3093%▲ 64 24hDecember 31, 202699%▲ 39 24h
Starmer - UK PM80%▲ 50 24hPetro - Colombia President16%▼ 50 24h
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf18%▲ 1 24hSheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani8.5%▼ 35 7dAbbas Araghchi7%▲ 1 24hSteve Witkoff3.5%▲ 1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?3.6%▼ 36 7d
June 261.5%▼ 42 7dJuly 3130%▲ 4 24hJune 302.5%▼ 11 7d
United States8.5%▼ 8 24hBahrain1.6%▼ 1 24hIndia2.1%▼ 9 24hUnited Kingdom2.1%▼ 16 7d
Politics & Elections
June 2130%▲ 20 24hJune 2396%▲ 1 24hJune 2994%▲ 2 24hJune 2891%▼ 2 7d
Lander 30%+25%▼ 38 24hLander 20–30%50%▲ 32 24hLander <10%3.5%▲ 1 24h
July 134%▼ 8 24hJune 2618%▼ 10 24hDecember 3188%
Wes Streeting56%▲ 30 24hNo next Chancellor in 20262.2%▼ 29 24hEd Miliband23%▼ 24 24hYvette Cooper12%▲ 9 24h
Sorin Grindeanu38%▲ 23 24hDan Motreanu12%▲ 8 24hAlexandru Nazare15%▲ 1 24hIlie Bolojan8.1%▲ 4 24h
Economy & Crypto
$300M93%▲ 60 24h$800M5.5%▼ 4 24h$500M16%▼ 2 24h
Alphabet27%▼ 52 24hApple74%▲ 52 24h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?42%▼ 39 24h
$1.5T-$2.0T46%▲ 32 24h$2.5T-$3.0T5.7%▼ 20 24h$2.0T-$2.5T39%▼ 16 24h$1.0T-$1.5T8.2%▲ 5 24h
↑$3.0T2.9%▼ 5 24h↓$1.4T9.3%▲ 6 24h↓$1.45T11%▲ 7 24h↓$1.5T12%▲ 6 24h
↑ $4,4009%▼ 6 24h↓ $3,8001.5%▼ 1 24h
Science & Tech
Not released by June 2879%▲ 22 24hJune 22–June 2822%▼ 21 24h
June 3019%▼ 37 24hJune 232.4%▼ 1 24hJuly 3194%▲ 2 24h
Google6.4%▲ 2 24hAnthropic93%▲ 1 7d
Anthropic84%▲ 4 7dOpenAI4.7%▼ 1 24hGoogle11%▲ 1 24h
Google1.9%▼ 1 24hAnthropic94%▲ 2 7dOpenAI4.5%▲ 1 24h
Sports
Marcus Thuram9.5%▼ 16 24hDésiré Doué62%▼ 22 24hIliman Ndiaye60%▲ 22 24hBrahim Díaz49%▼ 20 7d
Egypt63%▼ 2 24hBelgium26%▲ 1 24hIran12%▲ 1 24h
Lionel Messi9%▲ 2 24hOusmane Dembélé8.7%▲ 1 24hLamine Yamal12%▼ 2 24hHarry Kane32%▲ 4 7d
Lionel Messi34%▲ 14 24hKylian Mbappe32%▲ 7 24hMikel Oyarzabal2.1%▼ 3 24hErling Haaland9.5%▲ 1 24h
Netherlands76%▲ 33 7dSweden3.7%▲ 1 24hJapan20%▼ 8 7d
England94%▲ 1 24hCroatia1.8%▼ 1 24hGhana4.4%▼ 1 24h
Culture
Toy Story 59.3%▲ 1 24hThe Super Mario Galaxy Movie3.2%▼ 2 7dAvengers: Doomsday14%
Callum Turner4.8%▲ 3 24hNo Bond chosen92%▼ 1 24h
Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.
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