Politics & Elections
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?
30%→
18%
24h
Prediction markets spent the week pricing out optimism on both a nuclear accord and a British premiership — while the AI race ran a full lap without OpenAI or Google keeping up.
The week's dominant movement was the collapse of hope. Iran's probability of ending uranium enrichment by June 30 fell to 2%, down 57 points on the week, with the July 31 horizon barely better at 8%, down 54 points. Traders now see the next US-Iran talks arriving no earlier than July 31 — that date surged to 73% while July 10 lost 34 points in a single day. Simultaneously, markets concluded that Keir Starmer's tenure is effectively over: the probability he is the next major leader out before 2027 reached 84%, up 52 points on the week, with a successor priced at 82% to be appointed by July 19. In technology, GPT-5.6 missed its June 22–28 window — now at 7%, down 64 points — and a Gemini Pro release by June 30 was repriced to near-impossible at 94% probability of no release, up 80 points. Anthropic, meanwhile, held firm at 98% for best AI model of June.
The Iran nuclear deal is, in market terms, finished for now. Enrichment-ending-by-June-30 sits at 2% (-57 pts/7d); July 31 at 8% (-54 pts/7d); even December 31 at just 30% (-39 pts/7d). The next round of talks is repriced to July 31 or later at 73%, while July 10 collapsed 34 points in a single session. On a lighter note, Strait of Hormuz shipping is back to normal: traders put 97% on 75–99 transits this week, up 57 points on the day.
Starmer's political position deteriorated sharply to 84% next-out (-before-2027), up 52 points on the week, with a successor now 76% likely appointed by July 17. Romania's PM race remains fluid; Sorin Grindeanu surged to 56% (+46 pts/7d). In Colombia, Iván Cepeda Castro is 98% to lead Bogotá in the presidential runoff (+61 pts/7d). The Trump insult market for June 21 settled near 18% (-74 pts/7d) as the date passed; June 25 and June 29 remain priced above 90%.
Silver is now 52% likely to breach $60 by end of June, up 44 points on the week. SpaceX IPO pricing consolidated into a $1.5T–$2.5T band (44% and 46% respectively), with the $2.5T–$3T scenario at just 4%. A Fed rate hike in 2026 is now priced at 60% (+27 pts/7d). Tesla Q2 deliveries: markets put 57% on 450k–475k, with the 475k+ bucket climbing to 20% (+15 pts/24h).
GPT-5.6 missed its June 22–28 window decisively (7%, -64 pts/7d); June 30 delivery sits at 13% (-65 pts/7d), with July 17 now the modal arrival at 81%. Google's Gemini Pro is all but ruled out before June 30 at 94% no-release probability, up 80 points on the week. The beneficiary: Anthropic at 98% for best model of June and 88% for July. Claude Fable 5's US restoration shifted to August 31 (84%) after the July 1 date fell to 25% (-40 pts/7d).
World Cup group stages are sharpening. Portugal edged ahead of Colombia for the Group K win (52% vs 48%). England dominates Group L at 88%; Netherlands leads Group F at 76%. Bruno Fernandes's goal probability collapsed 40 points on the week to 43%, while Marcus Thuram surged 25 points in a day to 34%. DR Congo's second-place hopes in Group K fell to 2% (-19 pts/24h).
Spider-Man: Brand New Day consolidates as the markets' favorite 2026 box office champion at 66%, up 11 points on the week. Toy Story 5 sits at 11% (-13 pts/7d), suggesting the Pixar nostalgia trade is losing believers to superhero money.
The market, as ever, offers two certainties this week: Anthropic is winning AI, and optimism about Iran had nowhere left to fall.
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