What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Lebanon Talks Collapse, Vučić Exit Certain, Starmer Priced Next
A single trading session wiped out the Lebanon-Israel normalization trade while Balkan finality and a British political countdown sharpened into focus.
Markets delivered a swift verdict on Monday: the Lebanon-Israel recognition bet is effectively dead. At 14%—down 47 points in 24 hours—traders have priced the June 30 deadline as a clean miss, erasing what was briefly a live trade. Meanwhile, Aleksandar Vučić's departure from the Serbian presidency is all but resolved at 98%, up 91 points on the week, with the clock expiring tomorrow. The period's quieter but perhaps more consequential move belongs to Keir Starmer: traders now make the UK Prime Minister the 92% favourite to be the next major leader out of power before 2027, up 62 points in seven days. Against this political turbulence, the Strait of Hormuz reads almost serene—94% probability of 40-plus daily ship transits by June 30, up 48 points on the week—suggesting the waterway has quietly normalised even as regional diplomacy staggers.
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
98%→98%24h
$160,391 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
61%→14%24h
$346,806 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?
26%→87%24h
$12,300 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
86%→94%24h
$51,750 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
75%→80%24h
$15,061 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
73%→26%24h
$21,779 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
76%→76%24h
$24,185 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
94%→96%24h
$21,002 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Three stories converge. Vučić's Serbian exit is priced as fait accompli at 98% (+91 pts/7d) ahead of tomorrow's deadline. Lebanon-Israel recognition has collapsed to 14%, shedding 47 points overnight. The Strait of Hormuz, by contrast, is almost tranquil: 94% for 40-plus daily transits (+48 pts/7d), with the 20–40 average daily band at 80%. US-Iran talks are expected in the July 10–17 window, priced at 45–53%.
Starmer's 92% probability of being the next major leader out before 2027 (+62 pts/7d) dominates. In Colorado, Phil Weiser leads the Democratic gubernatorial primary at 76% (+42 pts/7d); Melat Kiros holds CO-01 at 78% (+29 pts/7d). On AI access: Claude Mythos 5 restoration by June 30 crashed to 26% (-47 pts/24h), while Claude Fable 5's August 31 window holds firm at 96% (+42 pts/7d).
Tesla Q2 delivery expectations have migrated downward: the 400k–425k band now leads at 33% (+24 pts/7d), displacing 450k–475k. OpenAI IPO odds by year-end fell to 23% (-29 pts/7d). June US inflation is centred on 3.8% at 48%. The Fed is seen pausing in three consecutive meetings at 46%, up 8 points on the week.
GPT-5.6 has repriced firmly into mid-July: July 17 at 72% (+44 pts/7d) and July 24 at 86% (+41 pts/7d). Next Claude Sonnet is 48% to arrive by July 3. Anthropic holds the best-model crown at 99% for end of June and 84% for end of July, with Google at 10% and OpenAI at 5% for the July contest.
Messi is now the clear Golden Boot favourite at 52%, up 32 points on the week. Canada has surged to 76% for a Round of 16 exit (+40 pts/7d), while Cape Verde is 94% out in the Round of 32. Penalty drama expectations have compressed sharply: 5-plus missed penalties sits at 33% (-37 pts/7d), and shootout-decided matches of 6-plus have shed 16 points in 24 hours to 50%.
MrBeast's latest video has settled into the 50–60M views bracket at 87% (+62 pts/24h), dislodging the 60–70M outcome. The Odyssey's opening weekend has gravitated toward $75–85M at 28% (+20 pts/24h), away from the $115M-plus scenario at 24% (-18 pts). Spider-Man: Brand New Day remains the year's box-office favourite at 73%. No Bond has been chosen: 99%.