What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Trump-Starmer Fracture Reaches 96% as Alphabet Dethrones Apple
A single session repriced trans-Atlantic relations, big-tech rankings, and SpaceX's debut valuation all at once.
Markets rendered three decisive verdicts on Tuesday. Traders pushed the probability that Donald Trump publicly insults Keir Starmer before midnight to 96%, a leap of 91 points in a single session — a move that size typically signals an event has occurred rather than merely become imminent. Simultaneously, Alphabet displaced Apple as the world's second-largest company by market capitalization in crowd pricing: the Alphabet outcome reached 90%, up 56 points on the day and 64 on the week, while Apple's corresponding probability fell to 9%. SpaceX's IPO-month valuation converged tightly on the $2.0–2.5 trillion band at 95%, up 37 points, as the $1.5–2.0 trillion scenario deflated to 4%. On geopolitics, US-Iran peace-talk venue pricing pivoted decisively toward Qatar, now at 56% (up 12 points on the day), while the 'no meeting by September' scenario collapsed to 5% and Pakistan fell to 4%.
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?
5%→96%24h
$7,320 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
34%→90%24h
$15,354 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
58%→95%24h
$42,950 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
76%→82%24h
$23,485 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
4.1%→2.4%24h
$23,622 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?
92%→85%24h
$30,345 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
8%→4.5%24h
$28,884 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
96%→98%24h
$16,411 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz transit counts repriced sharply: the 10–20 ships-per-day band collapsed to 2%, down 54 points on the week, with 20–40 now the consensus at 84%. Lebanon recognizing Israel spiked 23 points in a day to 38%. US-Iran diplomacy locked onto Qatar at 56% for the next venue, with July 3 emerging as the leading date at 34% (up 12 points). Mojtaba Khamenei's continued absence kept his public-appearance markets unsettled across all time horizons.
The Trump-insult market's 91-point session surge to 96% on Starmer overshadowed everything else. In Colorado, Phil Weiser extended his lead in the Democratic governor primary to 82%, up 56 points on the week, with Michael Bennet falling to 18%. The UK reshuffled its shadow cabinet in market form: Ed Miliband vaulted to 66% as next Chancellor (up 42 points on the week), displacing Wes Streeting, who fell to 11%.
Alphabet's ascent to second-largest company slot (90%, up 56 points) and SpaceX's valuation anchor at $2.0–2.5 trillion (95%) defined the session. Laso Finance's public-sale momentum faded — the '>40M commitments' bucket sits at 3%, down 47 points on the week. STRC's path to $100 by December holds at 45%, while Arc's token-launch timeline remains a 2027 story at 74%, shedding 16 points in a day.
Claude Code's 750k commit milestone sits at 85% with hours remaining, though an 8-point intraday slip shows residual uncertainty. The AI release calendar crystallized: GPT-5.6 by July 17 is priced at 88% (up 40 points on the week), and markets sharply repriced a new Claude Sonnet for early July — the July 2 and July 3 dates each jumped 24–26 points in a day to 70–75%. Anthropic leads the 'best AI model end of July' poll at 84%.
Lionel Messi leads the World Cup Golden Boot race at 53% (up 19 points on the week) as Harry Kane fell 11 points to 4%. Paraguay is 86% likely to exit in the Round of 16. Morocco's ceiling has risen, with quarterfinals at 50%. The penalty-shootout count keeps climbing — 6 or more is now 75%. LeBron James to Golden State Warriors surged 15 points to 34%, meaningfully cutting into the Lakers' 52%.
MrBeast's latest video settled firmly into the 50–60 million view band at 95%, abandoning the 60–70M range (now 5%, down 45 points on the week). 'Voicemails for Isabelle' is a near-lock at 98% for top US Netflix movie, up 48 points on the week. 'Little Brother' was consoled with 97% odds of the No. 2 slot — a market that has somehow become its own story.