What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Traders Reprice the Fed: Hike Odds Surge to 58% as 'Pause' Bets Crumble
Odds of a 2026 rate hike jumped to 58%, up 9 points on the day, as traders across three separate Fed contracts abandoned bets on a steady pause. Gulf shipping risk and a scrambled AI release calendar added to the day's volatility.
Prediction markets swung hawkish on the Federal Reserve, pushing the odds of a 2026 rate hike to 58%, up 9 points on the day, while wagers on a hike by the October meeting climbed to 50% (+8 points) and September to 46% (+9 points) — bets on a steady 'pause-pause-pause' path through autumn fell 11 points to 55%. In the Gulf, traders grew less confident that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by July 31, cutting that probability to 4%, down 24 points over the week, even as odds of a July 8 tanker strike faded to 3% with the contract's resolution imminent. In AI, Google's release calendar scrambled overnight — the Gemini Pro 'by July 24' contract cratered 44 points to 34%, the 'by July 17' contract fell 42 points to 24%, and bettors increasingly expect no release at all by July 31, up 10 points to 20%.
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
64%→14%7d
$18,931 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Valli Geiger be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
50%→2.1%24h
$10,668 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?
48%→2.5%24h
$14,627 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026?
78%→34%24h
$5,622 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?
43%→11%7d
$64,308 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
13%→48%7d
$8,083 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
28%→4.5%7d
$394,571 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
31%→64%7d
$12,423 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets deepened their doubt that shipping lanes fully recover: the odds Hormuz traffic normalizes by July 31 fell to 4% (-24 points on the week), and expectations that 60 ships transit the strait by month's end dropped to 14% (-50 points on the week). A one-day strike on shipping faded to 3% as that July 8 contract nears resolution, even as July 10's ticks up to 20% (+6 points). Traders also grew more bullish on diplomacy: a Russia-Ukraine meeting by July 31 rose 16 points to 52%, and by August 31 to 77% (+25 on the week).
Maine's Democratic Senate primary reshuffled sharply: Valli Geiger's nomination odds collapsed 48 points to just 2% as Troy Jackson (55%, +4) and Shenna Bellows (27%, +6) absorbed the shift. In Romania, Alexandru Nazare's odds of becoming premier eased 5 points to 48% but remain up 35 on the week as the deadline nears. Washington chatter intensified too: traders now give Samuel Alito 62% odds of retiring by mid-2027 (+12 on the day) and Mitch McConnell 70% odds of stepping down early (+10).
The rate debate flipped hawkish across the board: 2026 hike odds rose to 58% (+9 on the day), hike-by-October climbed to 50% (+8), and the catch-all 'Other' outcome for the Fed's June-September path jumped 18 points to 44% as 'pause-pause-pause' bets eroded. Meanwhile NVIDIA's grip on the title of world's largest company by July's end firmed to 86% (+6 on the day), even as Apple crept up to 11% (+7 on the week).
Google's next Gemini Pro release turned into the week's most volatile contract: the 'by July 24' date cratered 44 points to 34% and 'by July 17' fell 42 points to 24%, while 'no release by July 31' surged 10 points to 20%. GPT-6 odds climbed too, with its September 30 and December 31 deadlines near enough now to pull both contracts up to 64% (+22) and 88% (+16). Anthropic's hold on 'best model' honors ticked down slightly to 84%.
Tadej Pogačar's Tour de France coronation looks all but priced in at 86% (+42 on the week), as Jonas Vingegaard's odds sank to 11% (-32 on the week). At Wimbledon, Alexander Zverev's title odds jumped 14 points to 22% while Jannik Sinner held favorite status at 64%. In the NBA offseason market, LeBron James's odds of joining Cleveland eased slightly to 46%, with Miami climbing to 21% (+5 on the day).
LCK (South Korea)56%▼ 13 24hLEC (Europe / EMEA)6.6%▲ 5 24hLPL (China)34%▲ 3 24hLCS (North America)1.6%▲ 1 24h
Culture
Box office traders raised their estimate for 'Evil Dead Burn's opening weekend, pushing the 20-25m bracket up 17 points to 34% while the under-20m outcome slipped 10 points to 59%. Longer-range, Spider-Man: Brand New Day remained the heavy favorite for 2026's top grosser at 72%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant second at 16% (+3 on the week).
Britain's political churn found a ceiling in traders' eyes: the odds that the UK sees exactly two Prime Ministers through the end of 2027 jumped 24 points to 82% on the day, as both the three-PM scenario (down 14 points to 13%) and the four-or-more scenario (down 14 points to 2%) were priced out almost in tandem.