What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Stand Down: Iran-Gulf Strike Odds Crater, but Hormuz Stays Snarled
Prediction markets stood down from Gulf-strike bets across four separate dates this week, even as they pushed the Strait of Hormuz's return to normal further into the future — a sign traders see the acute crisis cooling but the shipping disruption lingering.
Traders are unwinding their Gulf war bets in unison: the odds Iran strikes a Gulf state on July 9 collapsed to 2%, down 83 points in a day, while every other date in the same series — July 10 (8%, -28), July 26 (14%, -34) and July 27 (12%, -34) — fell in sympathy. Yet relief is only partial: the chance Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by July 31 sank to 4% (-22 points on the week), even as the December 31 outlook held at 62% (+4/24h). Elsewhere, the Fed's hike fever broke — 'no change' in July climbed to 84% (+7 points), clawing back ground from last week's surge — while GPT-6's odds of shipping by September 30 jumped to 74% (+10 on the day, +50 on the week). In cycling, Tadej Pogačar tightened his grip on the Tour de France, now priced at 92% (+7).
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
85%→1.6%24h
$20,364 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
4.6%→52%7d
$75,199 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
17%→64%7d
$17,233 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?
47%→88%24h
$50,351 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
24%→74%7d
$5,339 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?
42%→1.7%7d
$13,767 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
45%→3.5%7d
$5,775 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?
58%→94%24h
$18,920 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran-Gulf strike series cratered across the board: July 9 fell to 2% (-83 points on the day), with July 10, 26 and 27 all down 28-34 points in sympathy. Traders also pushed back the Strait of Hormuz's return to normalcy — just 4% by July 31 (-22 points/week) versus 62% by year-end (+4/24h) — implying the disruption outlasts the acute strike risk. Talks-venue odds drifted too: Pakistan gained 10 points on the week to 17%, while Qatar slid 24 points to 10%.
Qatar9.5%▼ 6 24hPakistan17%▼ 1 24hNo Meeting by September 3014%▲ 3 24hSwitzerland26%▼ 2 24h
Politics & Elections
Trump's UFO-declassification odds jumped to 88% as the July 15 deadline nears (+41 points on the day), with the July 31 backstop at 94% (+25). In the Clacton by-election, Count Binface's hold on second place slipped to 64% (-26 points) as Andrew Pemberton (11%, +11) and Tony Mack (8%, +8) gained ground. McConnell's odds of an early Senate exit eased to 60% (-11/24h) despite a 14-point weekly gain, and France's presidential race saw Marine Le Pen extend to 27% (+19/week) as Jordan Bardella retreated to 5% (-21/week).
OpenAI's valuation milestones lost ground across the board — the $1T threshold by December fell to 55% (-22 points on the day), the $1.25T mark to 32% (-8), and even the modest $900B bar eased to 83% (-10) — a broad markdown of AI-financing exuberance. The 2026 rate-hike question ticked down to 51% (-8/24h) even as the Fed's pause-pause-pause path held near-lock at 86% (+9). NVIDIA remained the runaway favorite for largest company, at 86% (+2 on the week).
GPT-6's odds of shipping by September 30 rose to 74% (+10 points on the day, +50 on the week) as the December 31 backstop firmed to 94% (+6). Anthropic's hold on 'best AI model' honors for end of July strengthened to 90% (+6), with Google slipping to 7% (-4) and OpenAI to 3% (-1).
Wimbledon's women's final tightened into a near coin flip as Karolína Muchová (52%, +24) and Linda Nosková (48%, +27) both surged past the rest of the field with the title two days out. Tadej Pogačar extended his Tour de France lead to 92% (+7/24h, +12/week) as Isaac del Toro's hopes evaporated to 2% (-41/week). In League of Legends, China's LPL reclaimed favorite status at 60% (+26) over Korea's LCK (36%, -20).
'Evil Dead Burn' traders now see a sub-$20m opening weekend as near-certain at 94% (+36 points), while 'Moana' bettors converged on the $34-39m band at 57% (+35). The guessing game over featured artists on Future's 'The Real Me' unraveled entirely, with every named contender — Travis Scott, Yebba, Giveon, 2 Chainz — losing 36 to 63 points on the day, as the reveal apparently went elsewhere.
Somewhere between a stood-down warship and a coin-flip Wimbledon final, the market's message is clear: uncertainty didn't vanish, it just found better hiding spots.
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