What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
AI Markets Reprice: GPT, Grok Debut Bets Crater as Google Surges in Math
Traders erased expectations that the next GPT or Grok model will debut atop the leaderboard, while Google's math model vaulted past Anthropic's for the first time this cycle.
Confidence in a blockbuster AI debut evaporated overnight: markets now give the next GPT model just 2% odds of scoring 1460 or higher on the Text Arena by year-end, down 82 points in a single day, while the equivalent bet on xAI's next Grok model fell 72 points to 3%. The retreat wasn't uniform — Google's odds of fielding the best math AI model by month-end jumped 40 points to 55%, overtaking Anthropic, which slid 30 points to 45%. Elsewhere, the World Cup reshuffled expectations: traders now put Spain's exit at the semifinal stage at 60%, up 14 points on the day and 34 over the week, while Erling Haaland's odds of an 8-goal tournament climbed to 60%. In Maine, Democratic primary bettors swung hard behind Troy Jackson, now favored at 70% after a 22-point one-day jump, at Shenna Bellows's expense.
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
85%→2.1%24h
$18,795 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
76%→3.1%24h
$10,801 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?
57%→7%24h
$9,756 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
12%→55%7d
$16,705 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13%→60%7d
$5,847 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
59%→16%7d
$11,411 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
25%→60%7d
$31,595 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?
26%→56%7d
$17,055 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz sentiment ticked up but remains far below last week's levels. Traders now give 16% odds that 60+ ships transit on any day this month, up 4 points on the day but down 42 over the week; bets on a return to normal traffic by July 31 rose to 8% (+3 points), by August 31 to 22% (+6), and by September 30 to 38% (+8). Meanwhile, weekly ship-count bettors have grown more pessimistic, with under-150 odds up 10 points to 57%.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?7.5%▲ 3 24h
Politics & Elections
Maine's Democratic Senate primary saw the sharpest one-day swing on the board: Troy Jackson jumped 22 points to a 70% favorite, as Shenna Bellows slipped to 24%. Fed watchers trimmed odds of a July hold to 78% (-7 points) while nudging a 25bp July hike up to 22%. Samuel Alito retirement bets drifted toward the June 2027 term-end option, now 56%, as nearer-term dates faded.
Anthropic's valuation trajectory brightened: markets lifted the odds it tops $1.75 trillion by year-end to 66% (+15 points on the day), and $2.0 trillion to 46% (+9). NVIDIA further cemented its lead as largest company by month-end, rising to 92% (+7). Fed-rate-hike bettors split their attention across meetings, nudging September odds up 14 points on the week to 44%.
The board's biggest reversal: next-generation model hype cooled sharply, with GPT's odds of a 1460+ Arena debut collapsing 82 points to 2% and Grok's falling 72 points to 3% — both now seen landing just above 1450 instead. Google, meanwhile, surged into math supremacy, up 40 points to 55% and overtaking Anthropic (down 30 to 45%), even as Anthropic still commands 94% odds for best overall AI model.
NBA free-agency markets swung sharply against Cleveland, whose odds of re-signing LeBron James fell 21 points to 41% as Miami climbed to 26% (+8 on the day, +14 on the week). World Cup bettors pushed Spain's semifinal-exit odds to 60% (+14 on the day, +34 on the week) and held Haaland's 8-goal odds at 60% after a 46-point weekly run. With Wimbledon's final approaching, Sinner surged to 81% (+18).
LPL (China)56%▼ 4 24hLCK (South Korea)42%▲ 7 24hLCS (North America)2.4%▲ 2 24h
Culture
Moana's opening-weekend bracket snapped decisively into the $39-44 million range (72%, +36 points) as actual box-office figures arrive, with the $34-39 million bracket collapsing 50 points to 7%. Bettors also nudged the odds of a new Stranger Things episode arriving by year-end to 6%, while the market pricing a Second Coming before 2027 held steady at 2%.
In a day when AI benchmark bets crumbled and LeBron's next zip code became a coin flip, only the Second Coming held its line — 2%, unchanged, world without end.
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