Geopolitics
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
12%→
83%
7d
Contracts on Iranian military action against a Gulf state surged to 65-74% across near-term windows, even as traders' odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31 slid to 30%, down 43 points on the week.
Polymarket's Iran book moved fastest today. Traders now put Iranian military action against a Gulf state at 65% for the window through July 9, up 46 points in a day, while the July 13 contract climbed to 74% (+39 points) — even as the July 22 window fell to just 8%. That escalation view coincided with traders abandoning diplomacy: odds of a US-Iran meeting by July 31 dropped to 30%, down 43 points on the week. Strait of Hormuz traffic held near-certain at 83% for fewer than 150 ships, though that reading mostly reflects last week's window closing. Elsewhere, Mitch McConnell's odds of an early Senate exit collapsed to 32%, down 24 points on the day, reversing a market that had leaned toward retirement. And in the World Cup market, Spain's odds of a semifinal exit rose to 60%, up 34 points this week, while Anthropic's grip on the 'best math model' crown widened to 76%, up 23 points, as Google slid to 8%.
Escalation dominated the desk: Iran military action against a Gulf state jumped to 65-74% across near-dated contracts (+46, +39 points), while 'Iran successfully targets shipping' for July 13 rose to 58% (+30) as that window nears its deadline. Blockade odds diverged by horizon — 60% by December 31 (+32 pts/week) but only 32% by July 31. Diplomatic hopes faded fastest: a US-Iran meeting by July 31 fell to 30% (-43 pts/week), while the July 17 talks contract lost 26 points. Hormuz traffic stayed near-certain at 83% for the closing week.
Mitch McConnell's odds of stepping down early collapsed to 32%, down 24 points on the day and 30 on the week — a sharp reversal for a market that had priced retirement as likely. In Maine, Troy Jackson's path to the Democratic Senate nod held at 68% (+24 pts/week) as rivals faded. Marine Le Pen's 2027 French presidential odds ticked up to 28%, a 20-point weekly gain. The Fed is priced for a July hold (76%, though down 13 pts/week), and traders trimmed Samuel Alito retirement bets across every horizon.
NVIDIA's grip on 'largest company' by month-end firmed to 92% (+9 pts/week). Anthropic's IPO timeline compressed: December 31, 2026 remains favorite at 66%, but both that contract and the October 31 date (28%, -10 pts/24h) lost ground on the week. Traders see a 60% chance of a 2026 Fed rate hike, up 12 points this week, even as the base case stays 'no change' in July. Intel's Q2 gross-margin distribution shifted toward the 40-42% band (36%, +7 points), away from 38-40% (32%, -15).
Anthropic tightened its hold on the AI leaderboard: traders now give it 76% odds of the best math model at month-end, up 23 points on the day, as Google's share cratered to 8% (-36 points). The broader 'best AI model' market shows a similar lean — Anthropic 94%, up 9 points this week, against Google's 5%.
World Cup markets moved sharply against Spain, whose odds of a semifinal exit rose to 60% (+34 pts/week), while England's route splits between a semifinal finish (44%) and the final (36%). In the Golden Ball race, Mbappé leads at 42% ahead of Messi (31%) and Bellingham (19%). Pogačar is a near-lock for a third Tour de France title at 93% (+14 pts/week). And traders are still finalizing the guest list for Swift-Kelce's wedding, with Gracie Abrams up to 97% (+16 points).
The Emmys' variety-series race flipped: 'Last Week Tonight' surged to 43% (+33 points) for outstanding variety series, overtaking 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!,' which slid to 30% (-6). 'Avengers: Doomsday' remains the favorite for 2026's top-grossing film at just 14%, reflecting a wide-open field. Traders give a Second Coming before 2027 only 2% odds. 'Moana (2026)' opening-weekend box office is effectively settled at 100% for the $39-44m band as that market nears its close.
Between a Gulf-state strike, a Senate exit, and a wedding guest list, today's order book couldn't decide whether it was pricing war, retirement, or reception seating.
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