Sports
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
31%→
91%
7d
Markets now price an 84% chance of Iranian military action against a Gulf state, up 58 points this week, even as odds of a US-brokered halt collapsed to 10%.
Prediction markets turned sharply hawkish on the Gulf: traders now put the odds of Iranian military action against a Gulf state at 84%, up 10 points on the day and 58 over the week, while the chance Washington halts offensive operations by July 24 collapsed to just 10%, down 39 points overnight. In Whitehall, Shabana Mahmood's hold on the Chancellorship tightened to 89% (+6 on the day, +83 over the week) as Ed Miliband's odds withered to just 2%. Beijing's AI race flipped direction, with Alibaba retaking the lead for best Chinese model at 60% (+14 points) as Moonshot slid to 39% (-14) despite a strong week. Meanwhile NVIDIA edged back ahead of Apple, 53% to 44%, in the race for world's largest company by month's end, though it remains 38 points below its position of a week ago.
Gulf risk dominates: traders see an 84% chance of Iranian action against a Gulf state today, up 58 points this week, while hopes of a US halt to offensive operations by July 24 cratered to 10% (-39). Iran airspace closure by August 31 firmed to 56% (+14), and Houthi shipping attacks by August 31 hold at 54% (+32/7d). Ukraine's Syrskyi is given 68% odds of departing by year-end (+37/24h). Beijing's AI contest reversed course: Alibaba surged to 60% (+14) as best Chinese model, overtaking Moonshot's slide to 39% (-14) despite a strong week.
Shabana Mahmood's grip on the UK Chancellorship extended to 89% (+6/24h, +83/7d), leaving Ed Miliband at a mere 2% (-66/7d) and Yvette Cooper at 5%. The Home Secretary race stays muddled, with Wes Streeting favored at 32% and 'no successor' odds fading to 7%. In the Cook Islands, the ruling party surged to 86% (+35) for election victory. South Carolina's Senate primary remains Darline Graham Nordone's to lose at 65%. The Fed is priced for no July move at 94% (+15/7d).
NVIDIA reclaimed a slim edge over Apple, 53% to 44%, in the race for world's largest company by end of July, though its lead is 38 points softer than a week ago. Looking to December, NVIDIA holds 56% versus Apple's 32%. Traders assign 85% odds to zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 (+7/7d), and gold's climb to $6,000 by year-end is priced at just 8% (-4/7d). SpaceX remains the favorite for 2026's largest IPO at 86%.
Starship's thirteenth flight test drifted from a July 20 window (30%, -20 points) toward July 23 (86%, +12), with markets giving the booster an 86% chance of exploding on descent. Anthropic's grip on the best AI model title looks near-total — 98% for July, 90% for August — leaving Google (5%) and Moonshot (2%) as afterthoughts.
With the World Cup final hours away, markets have swung decisively to Kylian Mbappé for the Golden Boot (94%, +52/24h) and France for top-scoring nation (92%), while crowning Lionel Messi favorite for the Golden Ball at 91% — moves that likely owe as much to the approaching deadline as the pitch. Freshest of all: Dplus Kia's odds to win the EWC League of Legends title rocketed to 70% (+64 points in a day) as Karmine Corp climbed to 29%.
'The Odyssey' is now all but certain to open above $115m (99%, +75/7d), with traders converging on a $125-130m weekend take (48%, +16/24h). Its year-end prospects remain modest, though — just 9% odds of finishing 2026's highest-grossing film, versus Spider-Man: Brand New Day's commanding 75%.
Markets remain more certain about Messi's footwork than Washington's next move in the Gulf.
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