Politics & Elections
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
5.4%→
91%
7d
Prediction markets now assign a 91% chance Shabana Mahmood becomes the UK's next Chancellor of the Exchequer, a probability that has surged 86 points in a week as rival Ed Miliband's odds collapsed 66 points to just 2%.
Britain's fiscal succession now looks like a formality: prediction markets put Shabana Mahmood's odds of becoming the next Chancellor of the Exchequer at 91%, up 86 points over the past week, as Ed Miliband's chances collapsed 66 points to just 2%. Meanwhile the Gulf narrative keeps sharpening — traders now see an 83% chance of Iranian military action against a Gulf state today, up 14 points on the day and 66 over the week — yet expectations for heavy Strait of Hormuz traffic moved the other way, with odds of 30 or more daily ship transits by July 31 crashing 77 points over seven days to just 15%. In the boardroom, Apple clawed back into the world's-largest-company race, up 39 points over the week to 46%, closing on NVIDIA's fading 54%. And on the pitch, Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or hopes cratered 38 points in a single day to 7%, as Harry Kane surged 24 points to 39%.
Traders lifted the odds of Iranian military action against a Gulf state to 83% for today, up 14 points on the day and 66 over the week, with elevated readings for July 21 (73%, +8/+60) and July 22 (64%, +7/+55). Yet confidence in serious Strait of Hormuz disruption reversed hard: odds of 30-plus daily transits by July 31 fell 77 points over seven days to 15%. Ukraine's high command looks shakier too, with Oleksandr Syrskyi's odds of exiting as Commander-in-Chief by December 31 up 16 points to 84%.
Shabana Mahmood's odds of becoming the next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer reached 91%, up 86 points over the week, as Yvette Cooper held at 5% and Ed Miliband slid 66 points to 2%. In São Tomé and Príncipe, Carlos Vila Nova's re-election odds rose 16 points to 95% as that market nears its deadline. The Fed remains a settled bet, with markets assigning 93% to no July rate change, while France's Marine Le Pen extended her lead to 35%, up 3 points on the day.
NVIDIA's grip on the title of world's largest company by market cap keeps loosening — its odds for July 31 are down 38 points over the week to 54%, while Apple surged 39 points to 46%, nearly a coin flip. NVIDIA still leads the December 2026 contract at 55%, down 16 points on the week. Fed-watchers expect little drama: traders give 93% odds to a Pause-Pause-Pause run from April through July, and 85% odds of zero rate cuts in 2026, up 6 points on the week.
Anticipation for the next Claude Opus release firmed further, with markets assigning 92% odds to a July 31 launch, up 6 points on the day, and 95% to an August 31 ship date. SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 13 saw odds ease across the board: a July 23 launch date fell 18 points to 68%, and the chance of a successful splashdown slipped 6 points to 72%. Anthropic remains the field's clear leader, with markets giving it 98% odds of fielding the best AI model at July's end.
A single day reshuffled the Ballon d'Or race: Lionel Messi's odds collapsed 38 points to just 7%, while Harry Kane rocketed 24 points to a leading 39% and Lamine Yamal climbed 6 points to 35%. Elsewhere, LeBron James's next-team market kept drifting toward Miami, with the Heat up 1 point to 48% against Cleveland, up 3 points to 32%.
Culture markets mostly resolved on schedule: 'The Odyssey's' opening-weekend box office settled into the $120–125m band at 96%, up 58 points, as that contract reached its deadline. 'The Hawk' overtook 'Little House on the Prairie' for top US Netflix show, favored at 73% (up 46 points) with the weekly market closing in two days. Longer-dated bets stayed calmer, with 'Avengers: Doomsday' leading the highest-grossing-film-of-2026 race at just 14%, up 2 points on the day.
Between a chancellor nearly anointed and a Ballon d'Or upended overnight, the only unshaken market this week is Tadej Pogačar's Tour de France crown, holding at 97%.
The week’s biggest probability moves, in one email every Sunday. Free.