Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
5.2%→
80%
7d
Traders slashed the odds of a July rate rise to 7% even as shipping-lane and Iran-strike risk in the Gulf cooled sharply, while a stunning surge lifted a little-known South Carolina Republican to front-runner status.
Three fronts of anxiety eased or flared today. On the Fed decision market ($3.04m traded), the odds of a 25-basis-point July hike sank to just 7%, down 29 points over the week, as 'no change' traders now hold 93% conviction. Gulf security markets moved the same direction: expectations that 30 or more ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 fell to 16%, a 78-point weekly collapse, while the odds of Iranian military action against a Gulf state on July 20 dropped 46 points in a day to 36%. Politics offered the day's sharpest reversal: Darline Graham Nordone surged 75 points this week to 80% favorite in the South Carolina Republican Senate primary, eclipsing Russell Fry's collapse to 10%. In Westminster, Bridget Phillipson's cabinet odds jumped 38 points to 91% as Rachel Reeves's cratered 67 points to just 2%.
Gulf risk premia deflated across the board. Traders cut the odds of 30+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 to 16%, down 78 points in a week, and Iran-strikes-a-Gulf-state odds fell 46 points in a day to 36% (though the July 21 variant still sits at 67%, up 36 points weekly). Houthi shipping attacks, by contrast, grew more likely — 56% by July 31, up 24 points — while Alibaba reclaimed 'best Chinese AI model' honors at 89%, and the Bank of Russia's odds of a rate cut jumped 30 points to 56%.
Westminster's cabinet reshuffle market whipsawed: Bridget Phillipson soared 38 points to 91% while Rachel Reeves collapsed 67 points to 2%. In Washington, Fed traders all but abandoned a July hike, pricing it at 7% (down 29 points on the week) against 93% for no change. South Carolina's Republican Senate primary produced the day's most dramatic reversal — Darline Graham Nordone jumped 17 points on the day and 75 on the week to an 80% favorite, as Russell Fry's odds crumbled to 10%. Michigan Democrats now favor Abdul El-Sayed at 80%, up 14 points overnight.
Big-tech supremacy markets swapped places: Nvidia's odds of ending July as the world's largest company rose 15 points to 68%, while Apple slid 17 points to 29%. Further out, Nvidia still leads for December (60%) over Apple (22%). Rate-hike pricing eased across every Fed meeting this year — July's odds fell to 6%, September to 44%, October to 48% — with the broad 'hike in 2026' contract holding at 58%, up 5 points on the day but down 11 on the week.
Anthropic's grip on 'best AI model' tightened to 99% for July and 90% for August. Claude Opus release-date markets swung the other way, with the July 24 window slipping 17 points to 50% as traders push expectations toward the July 31 (84%) and October 31 (98%) deadlines. SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 13 firmed to 75% for a July 23 launch, up 6 points, with bettors still assigning an 80% chance the Super Heavy booster explodes.
LeBron James's market cooled slightly to 44% for a Miami Heat move (still up 27 points this week) as Philadelphia's odds climbed to 15%. Ballon d'Or traders swung hard toward Harry Kane, now 39% and up 10 points weekly, overtaking Lamine Yamal's 29%. In Formula 1, Kimi Antonelli's title odds strengthened to 74%, up 16 points on the week, at George Russell's expense, whose share fell to 8%.
With this week's Netflix rankings due to resolve in roughly 18 hours, 'The Hawk' jumped 19 points to a 92% favorite domestically while 'Little House on the Prairie' commands 82% globally — moves that look more like calendar convergence than genuine audience shifts. Among 2026 box office bets, 'Avengers: Doomsday' remains the runaway favorite for biggest opening weekend at 72%.
Whatever the crowd is pricing, it isn't panic — even the Strait of Hormuz seems to have gotten the memo.
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