Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
4.2%→
70%
7d
Traders now give a September rate hike 48% odds, up 12 points on the week and ahead of a no-change vote for the first time in weeks, while contracts on an Iran strike against a Gulf state jumped 16 points in a day to 68%. South Carolina Republicans are meanwhile coalescing around a single Senate nominee, and LeBron James's market for a Miami return keeps climbing.
Prediction markets reversed course today. Traders now put the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in September at 48%, up 7 points on the day and 12 on the week, overtaking a no-change vote, which slid to 44%, down 10 points on the day and 14 on the week — a sharp flip from the rate-cut optimism of recent weeks. Geopolitical risk moved in tandem: markets priced Iran military action against a Gulf state at 68% for today's window, up 16 points on the day and 38 on the week, while the July 25 contract climbed further to 75%, up 32 points in 24 hours. In South Carolina, Darline Graham Nordone's odds of winning the Republican Senate nomination eased to 70%, down 10 points on the day after a 66-point surge over the week, as Ralph Norman gained 8 points to reach 16%. In sports, LeBron James's odds of joining the Miami Heat rose to 48%, up 5 points on the day and 34 on the week, tightening a crowded field that still gives Cleveland 28%.
Markets are pricing Gulf risk higher today: Iran military action against a Gulf state sits at 68% for today's window (+16 pts/24h, +38 pts/7d), with the July 25 contract at 75% (+32 pts/24h). Yet the diplomatic track looks shakier for the other side — odds of Iran quitting MOU talks by August 15 fell to 14% (-4 pts/24h, -31 pts/7d), and a US-Iran ceasefire is now seen arriving no sooner than August 31 (56%, +4 pts/24h). Elsewhere, the Bank of Russia is favored to cut its key rate this week, up to 66% (+11 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d).
South Carolina Republicans are converging on Darline Graham Nordone, whose nomination odds eased to 70% (-10 pts/24h) after rocketing 66 points over the week, while Ralph Norman climbed to 16% (+8 pts/24h). At the Fed, September rate-hike odds jumped to 48% (+7 pts/24h, +12 pts/7d), overtaking no-change at 44% (-10 pts/24h, -14 pts/7d) — even as a July move is still seen as unlikely (85% no-change, -7 pts/24h). In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed remains the heavy favorite for the Democratic Senate nod at 80% (-1 pt/24h, +12 pts/7d).
Crypto traders are piling into MetaDAO's RipCars sale, where odds of raising over $25M jumped to 84% (+44 pts/24h). In the corporate race, NVIDIA reclaimed favorite status for largest company at 74% (+6 pts/24h) as Apple slipped to 25% (-5 pts/24h, though still +20 pts/7d). Expectations for a blowout Anthropic valuation cooled, with odds of topping $1.25T by year-end falling to 82% (-9 pts/24h, -8 pts/7d), even as the case for a more modest $800B floor rose to 22% (+12 pts/24h). A Fed hike by October is now seen as more likely than not, at 56% (+8 pts/24h).
Anthropic-watchers pushed back their timeline: odds that the next Claude Opus model arrives by July 24 fell to 42% (-8 pts/24h, -44 pts/7d), with July 31 now the favored date at 84% (-1 pt/24h, -9 pts/7d). GPT-6 bettors grew more optimistic about an August 21 release, up to 26% (+12 pts/24h), though September 30 remains the modal outcome at 75% (+4 pts/24h). SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 is still expected to fly by July 31 (91%), with traders giving the booster an 82% chance of exploding again. Anthropic keeps its crown for best AI model through August, at 94%.
LeBron James's odds of suiting up for the Miami Heat next season rose to 48% (+5 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d), pulling further ahead of Cleveland (28%) and Golden State (14%). At the WSOP Main Event, Michael Mizrachi surged to a 96% cash probability (+46 pts/24h, +46 pts/7d), matching Chris Moneymaker, also at 96% (+46 pts/7d). Kimi Antonelli's grip on the F1 title tightened to 74% (+16 pts/7d), while Ballon d'Or bettors still favor Harry Kane at 41% over Lamine Yamal's 27% (-3 pts/24h, +11 pts/7d).
Culturally, the year's box-office race looks all but settled: markets give Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 74% chance of finishing 2026 as the highest-grossing film, up 1 point on the day. Avengers: Doomsday climbed to 16% (+4 pts/24h, +2 pts/7d), while The Odyssey ticked up to 5% (+2 pts/24h) but remains a distant third in a field with little suspense left.
Poker pros cash out, rate-cutters fold, and Miami's front office might want to start clearing cap space just in case.
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