What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?: 6% → 97%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event? moved from 6% to 97% over the last 7d; Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? moved from 4% to 94% over the last 24h; Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? moved from 10% to 86% over the last 24h; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? moved from 16% to 73% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?
6.2%→97%7d
$20,278 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?
3.5%→94%24h
$17,901 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?
10%→86%24h
$11,181 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
16%→73%7d
$25,558 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
43%→92%24h
$36,119 traded · 24h
Sports
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
14%→50%7d
$486,494 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?
40%→86%24h
$9,566 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?
32%→70%24h
$10,200 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...? — July 31 at 94% (+91 pts/24h, +86 pts/7d); Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...? — December 31 at 86% (+45 pts/24h).
Markets price: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner — Darline Graham Nordone at 73% (+3 pts/24h, +57 pts/7d); Fed Decision in July? — No change at 75% (-10 pts/24h, -21 pts/7d).
Markets price: Total commitments for the RipCars public sale on MetaDAO — >30M at 70% (+38 pts/24h); Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Other at 58% (+6 pts/24h, +28 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Claude Opus released on...? — July 23 at 86% (+76 pts/24h, +74 pts/7d); Next Claude Opus released by...? — July 24 at 92% (+49 pts/24h, +21 pts/7d).
Markets price: WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash — Chris Moneymaker at 97% (+1 pts/24h, +91 pts/7d); Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2: Qualify to LAN — OG at 6% (-42 pts/24h).
Markets price: "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office — 98m+ at 19% (-11 pts/24h); Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 82% (+8 pts/24h, +6 pts/7d).