Thursday, July 23, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 43

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?: 6% → 97%

Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event? moved from 6% to 97% over the last 7d; Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? moved from 4% to 94% over the last 24h; Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? moved from 10% to 86% over the last 24h; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? moved from 16% to 73% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Sports

Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?

6.2% 97% 7d
$20,278 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?

3.5% 94% 24h
$17,901 traded · 24h
Science & Tech

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?

10% 86% 24h
$11,181 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

16% 73% 7d
$25,558 traded · 24h
Science & Tech

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?

43% 92% 24h
$36,119 traded · 24h
Sports

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

14% 50% 7d
$486,494 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?

40% 86% 24h
$9,566 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto

Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?

32% 70% 24h
$10,200 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...? — July 31 at 94% (+91 pts/24h, +86 pts/7d); Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...? — December 31 at 86% (+45 pts/24h).

July 3194%▲ 91 24hSeptember 3096%▲ 70 24hDecember 3198%▲ 30 24h
December 3186%▲ 45 24hSeptember 3080%▲ 9 24h
July 2133%▼ 37 24hJuly 2230%▼ 37 24hJuly 2370%▲ 3 24hJuly 2564%▼ 11 24h
August 3122%▼ 23 24hJuly 318.3%▼ 1 24hJuly 242.7%▼ 3 24h
July 2574%▼ 6 24hJuly 3158%▼ 7 24hAugust 3140%▼ 4 24hAugust 1548%▼ 3 24h
July 3142%▲ 14 24hAugust 3156%▲ 14 24hAugust 1550%▲ 14 24hJuly 2734%▲ 12 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner — Darline Graham Nordone at 73% (+3 pts/24h, +57 pts/7d); Fed Decision in July? — No change at 75% (-10 pts/24h, -21 pts/7d).

Darline Graham Nordone73%▲ 3 24hRussell Fry6.5%▼ 2 24hRalph Norman20%▲ 4 24hMark Lynch1.6%▲ 1 24h
Fed Decision in July? $3,828,627 · 24h
No change75%▼ 10 24h25 bps increase24%▲ 10 24h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?36%▼ 10 24h
No change44%▲ 1 24h25 bps increase50%▲ 1 24h25 bps decrease3.1%▼ 1 7d50+ bps decrease1.9%
Renan Santos11%▲ 2 24hFlávio Bolsonaro24%▼ 2 24hRonaldo Caiado1.8%Michelle Bolsonaro1.7%
J.D. Vance43%▲ 1 24hTucker Carlson1.7%▼ 1 24hRon DeSantis2.6%

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Total commitments for the RipCars public sale on MetaDAO — >30M at 70% (+38 pts/24h); Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — Other at 58% (+6 pts/24h, +28 pts/7d).

>30M70%▲ 38 24h>27.5M89%▲ 17 24h>25M98%▲ 14 24h>35M29%▲ 14 24h
Other58%▲ 6 24hPause–Pause–Pause40%▼ 6 24hPause–Pause–Cut2.5%▼ 1 7d
Fed rate hike by...? $42,554 · 24h
September Meeting59%▲ 8 24hJuly Meeting25%▲ 12 24hOctober Meeting62%▲ 6 24h
NVIDIA87%▲ 12 24hApple13%▼ 12 24h
Other24%▲ 11 24hPause–Pause–Pause76%▼ 11 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? $88,584 · 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026?66%▲ 5 24h

Science & Tech

Markets price: Next Claude Opus released on...? — July 23 at 86% (+76 pts/24h, +74 pts/7d); Next Claude Opus released by...? — July 24 at 92% (+49 pts/24h, +21 pts/7d).

July 2386%▲ 76 24hNo release by July 314.3%▼ 16 24hJuly 274.1%▼ 12 24hJuly 283.5%▼ 6 24h
July 2492%▲ 49 24hJuly 3195%▲ 11 24hDecember 31>99%▲ 1 7d
OpenAI2.5%▲ 1 24hAnthropic92%▼ 2 24hGoogle4.8%▼ 7 7d
July 2355%▼ 19 24hSuper Heavy booster explodes?82%▼ 6 7dJuly 3193%▲ 3 24hSuccessful splash down?70%▼ 2 24h
Hong Wang96%▼ 1 24hJacob Tsimerman96%▼ 2 24hYu Deng96%▼ 2 7dJohn Pardon96%▼ 1 7d
Anthropic99%▲ 1 7d

Sports

Markets price: WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash — Chris Moneymaker at 97% (+1 pts/24h, +91 pts/7d); Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2: Qualify to LAN — OG at 6% (-42 pts/24h).

Chris Moneymaker97%▲ 1 24hErik Seidel2.8%▼ 46 24hGreg Merson49%▲ 47 7dGerard Piqué49%▲ 45 7d
OG5.6%▼ 42 24hFOKUS9.2%▼ 39 24h3DMAX18%▼ 32 24hG265%▼ 24 24h
NBA: LeBron James Next Team $3,695,200 · 24h
Miami Heat50%▲ 1 24hGolden State Warriors15%▲ 1 24hCleveland Cavaliers26%▼ 2 24hPhiladelphia 76ers8.6%▼ 2 24h
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 $1,443,091 · 24h
Harry Kane41%▲ 24 7dKylian Mbappé12%▲ 1 24hLamine Yamal27%▼ 6 7dOusmane Dembélé1.6%▼ 2 7d
$4M-$10M58%▼ 17 24h$15M-$50M12%▲ 5 24hUnder $4M24%▲ 5 24h$10M-$15M8.8%▲ 4 24h
Hideki Matsuyama42%▲ 15 24hBen Kohles28%▲ 10 24hLucas Glover20%▲ 2 24hAdrien Dumont De Chassart11%▲ 2 24h

Culture

Markets price: "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office — 98m+ at 19% (-11 pts/24h); Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 82% (+8 pts/24h, +6 pts/7d).

98m+19%▼ 11 24h80-86m29%▲ 10 24h92-98m22%▼ 3 24h74-80m12%▼ 2 24h
Spider-Man: Brand New Day82%▲ 8 24hAvengers: Doomsday10%▼ 5 24hThe Odyssey3.5%▼ 1 24hToy Story 52.5%▼ 2 24h

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

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