Saturday, July 25, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 45

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?: 24% → 93%

Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? moved from 24% to 93% over the last 24h; Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year? moved from 15% to 98% over the last 7d; Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? moved from 28% to 92% over the last 24h; Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026? moved from 4% to 69% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Geopolitics

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?

24% 93% 24h
$290,826 traded · 24h
Sports

Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?

15% 98% 7d
$38,946 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?

28% 92% 24h
$52,102 traded · 24h
Sports

Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?

3.5% 69% 24h
$10,080 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

29% 80% 7d
$16,678 traded · 24h
Sports

Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

24% 78% 7d
$9,235 traded · 24h
Culture

Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?

18% 60% 24h
$32,492 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto

Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?

35% 74% 24h
$12,879 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? — July 31 at 93% (+70 pts/24h, +32 pts/7d); Who will Trump meet with in July? — Benjamin Netanyahu at 92% (+64 pts/24h, +30 pts/7d).

July 3193%▲ 70 24hAugust 3194%▲ 41 24h
Benjamin Netanyahu92%▲ 64 24hElon Musk10%▼ 2 24hMohammed bin Salman2.9%▲ 1 24h
July 3180%▲ 45 24hJuly 245.2%▼ 1 24h
July 2596%▲ 20 24hJuly 2686%▲ 18 24hAugust 3142%▲ 14 24hJuly 3166%▲ 10 24h
Moonshot11%▼ 6 24hAlibaba85%▲ 5 24h
July 3120%▼ 18 24hAugust 1532%▼ 20 24hAugust 3136%▼ 20 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: Fed Decision in July? — No change at 74% (-21 pts/7d); Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Haley Stevens at 36% (+14 pts/24h, +2 pts/7d).

Fed Decision in July? $3,184,863 · 24h
No change74%▼ 21 7d25 bps increase26%▲ 1 24h
Haley Stevens36%▲ 14 24hAbdul El-Sayed64%▼ 15 24h
No change40%▼ 20 7d25 bps increase54%▲ 2 24h25 bps decrease3.5%50+ bps decrease1.9%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?32%▼ 5 24h
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?46%▲ 4 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro74%▼ 8 7dRenan Santos13%▼ 3 24hLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva7.5%▼ 1 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Total commitments for the RipCars public sale on MetaDAO — >32.5M at 74% (+40 pts/24h); 2nd Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 30% (+22 pts/24h, -10 pts/7d).

>32.5M74%▲ 40 24h>30M98%▲ 33 24h>35M36%▲ 16 24h>37.5M8%▼ 4 24h
NVIDIA30%▲ 22 24hApple70%▼ 21 24h
Apple28%▲ 19 24hNVIDIA72%▼ 17 24h
↑ 3T yuan32%▼ 20 24h↑ 3.5T yuan18%▼ 12 24h↑ 2.5T yuan66%▼ 10 24h↑ 2T yuan84%▼ 5 24h
Fed rate hike by...? $44,891 · 24h
September Meeting61%▲ 26 7dJuly Meeting26%▲ 2 24hOctober Meeting68%▲ 24 7d
Fed rate hike in 2026? $56,057 · 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▼ 1 24h

Science & Tech

Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 7 at 27% (-34 pts/24h, -17 pts/7d); Which company has best AI model end of August? — Google at 4% (-3 pts/7d).

August 727%▼ 34 24hJuly 303.7%▼ 2 24hAugust 3186%▲ 12 7dJuly 312.9%▼ 4 24h
Google3.5%▼ 3 7dAnthropic90%▼ 1 24h
Super Heavy booster explodes?>99%▲ 19 24h
Anthropic>99%▲ 1 24h

Sports

Markets price: NBA: How Much Will LeBron’s Next Contract Be? — Under $4M at 98% (+67 pts/24h, +82 pts/7d); NBA: Will LeBron James Sign By…? — July 24, 2026 at 69% (+65 pts/24h).

Under $4M98%▲ 67 24h$4M-$10M1.9%▼ 37 24h
July 24, 202669%▲ 65 24hJuly 27, 202694%▲ 62 24hAugust 3, 202676%▲ 25 24hJuly 30, 202675%▲ 23 24h
Richard Carapaz78%▲ 40 24hTadej Pogačar13%▼ 18 24hValentin Paret-Peintre9%▼ 16 24h
Richard Carapaz78%▲ 40 24hTadej Pogačar13%▼ 18 24hValentin Paret-Peintre9%▼ 16 24h
Freddy Deeb2.3%▼ 47 24hMartin Kabrhel49%▲ 46 24hRyuta Nakai98%▲ 48 7dErik Seidel3.8%▲ 2 24h
Scottie Scheffler12%▼ 25 24hMichael Kim30%▲ 30 24hEmiliano Grillo8%▲ 4 24hChandler Phillips4.1%▲ 4 24h

Culture

Markets price: "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office — 86-92m at 60% (+43 pts/24h); Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 82% (+1 pts/24h, +6 pts/7d).

86-92m60%▲ 43 24h80-86m11%▼ 28 24h92-98m24%▲ 12 24h98m+2.2%▼ 3 24h
Spider-Man: Brand New Day82%▲ 1 24hThe Odyssey3.6%▼ 3 7dToy Story 52.5%▼ 2 7dAvengers: Doomsday12%▼ 1 7d

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

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