What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?: 7% → 96%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? moved from 7% to 96% over the last 7d; Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? moved from 4% to 64% over the last 7d; Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25? moved from 63% to 3% over the last 7d; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? moved from 50% to 84% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
7.2%→96%7d
$27,511 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
3.7%→64%7d
$16,639 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?
63%→2.8%7d
$7,215 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
50%→84%7d
$427,625 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
45%→4.2%7d
$16,674 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 3M Open?
8.6%→53%24h
$5,977 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
61%→95%7d
$71,232 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
53%→76%7d
$40,436 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Iran military action against a gulf state on...? — July 25 at 3% (-59 pts/24h, -60 pts/7d); US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) — July 24 at 31% (+24 pts/24h, +21 pts/7d).
Markets price: Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? — Donald Trump at 9% (-18 pts/24h, +3 pts/7d); Fed Decision in July? — No change at 79% (+5 pts/24h, -15 pts/7d).
Markets price: Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 76% (+5 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d); Fed rate hike in 2026? — Fed rate hike in 2026? at 72% (+18 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut? — 1480+ at 72% (-16 pts/24h, -2 pts/7d); Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 31 at 84% (-1 pts/24h, +12 pts/7d).
Philadelphia 76ers13%▲ 6 7dOklahoma City Thunder22%▼ 2 24hMinnesota Timberwolves3.2%Indiana Pacers1.7%
Culture
Markets price: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? — <20M at 96% (+77 pts/24h, +89 pts/7d); # of views of MrBeast video week 1? — <40M at 64% (+43 pts/24h, +60 pts/7d).