Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
7.2%→
96%
7d
Traders pushed the odds of an Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting through July 31 to 84%, up 19 points in a day, while a broader Iran truce climbed across every horizon out to August 31. Elsewhere, the Fed's hawkish drift rolled into September and Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or hopes kept fading.
Confidence in the Israel-Iran truce is compounding. Markets now price a ceasefire through July 31 at 84%, up 19 points on the day and 34 over the week, while a broader 'effective ceasefire' contract climbed at every horizon traders quoted — 40% for July 31, 52% for August 14, 60% for August 31, up 6 to 24 points across the curve. Iran-targets-shipping odds by July 25 collapsed to 3% as that deadline passed, but the July 31 version of the same contract jumped 36 points to 52% — not vanishing risk, just a later clock. Elsewhere, the Fed's hawkish drift rolled forward a month: September odds of a 25bp hike rose 18 points to 54% even as July's hike odds eased back 6 points to 20%. In markets far from macro, Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or odds collapsed to just 4%, down 41 points in a week, as Harry Kane's rose to 43%. And NVIDIA reclaimed ground as the world's most valuable company, now 76%, up 24 points on the week.
The Israel-Iran ceasefire is being priced as increasingly durable: the July 31 contract rose 19 points on the day to 84%, and every dated version through August 15 gained 18-20 points in 24 hours. A broader 'effective ceasefire' contract climbed in tandem, from 40% (July 31) to 60% (August 31), up 6-24 points across the curve. Iran full-airspace-closure odds fell 18-22 points at every horizon. A shipping-attack contract for July 25 expired near zero, but its July 31 counterpart jumped 36 points to 52%, redistributing rather than resolving the risk.
The Fed's hawkish repricing rolled forward a month: September odds of a 25bp hike rose 18 points to 54%, overtaking 'no change' (40%, down 18), even as July's hike odds eased 6 points to 20% with that meeting days away. In the presidential field, Trump's announcement odds fell 18 points to 9% while Buttigieg and Harris held near 10%. Clacton's by-election runner-up market gave Count Binface 81%, up 6 points. The Clarity Act's passage odds ticked up 5 points to 38%.
NVIDIA extended its hold on the world's-largest-company crown, rising 5 points on the day and 24 over the week to 76%, as Apple slipped to 24%. Broader Fed-hike sentiment for 2026 climbed 18 points over the week to 72%. The Bank of Japan's no-change odds held near-certain at 98%, and CXMT's IPO is now priced 88% to close above 2 trillion yuan.
Anthropic's grip on the best-AI-model title held near-total at 99%. Traders trimmed bets on the next Claude Opus debuting high on the Arena leaderboard, with 1490+ down 12 points to 52% and 1500+ down 4 to 28%. Google's next Gemini Pro release window firmed toward August, with the August 31 contract at 84%, up 12 points over the week.
Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or odds collapsed to 4%, down 41 points over the week, as Harry Kane climbed to 43% (+28 points). Mercedes' hold on the F1 constructors' title eased 5 points to 82% on the day. In esports, BLAST Bounty odds shifted toward MOUZ (19%, +10) and away from Spirit (40%, -3). The PGA's 3M Open leaderboard reshuffled sharply as Sunday's finish neared, with Jackson Koivun surging 45 points to 53%.
MrBeast's day-one and week-one view counts swung hard as the video's release resolved the bet: sub-20-million-view odds for day one jumped 77 points to 96%, and the under-40-million week-one contract rose 43 points to 64% — deadline arrivals, not fresh news. 'The Odyssey' second-weekend box office contract likewise snapped toward its $86-92 million band (84%, +24) with resolution roughly 18 hours out. Spider-Man: Brand New Day remained the clear favorite for 2026's top grosser at 82%.
Turns out a ceasefire is easier to price than a Fed meeting.
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