The Probable Times — Monday, July 27, 2026

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? moved from 4% to 98% over the last 7d; Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026? moved from 5% to 98% over the last 7d; Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? moved from 98% to 21% over the last 24h; Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? moved from 9% to 84% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.

Sports

Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?

3.9%→ 98% 7d

$14,506 traded · 24h

Science & Tech

Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

4.6%→ 98% 7d

$14,674 traded · 24h

Sports

Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?

98%→ 21% 24h

$16,890 traded · 24h

Culture

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?

9%→ 84% 7d

$9,425 traded · 24h

Science & Tech

Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?

23%→ 94% 24h

$16,202 traded · 24h

Science & Tech

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

28%→ 97% 24h

$12,066 traded · 24h

Economy & Crypto

Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?

34%→ 89% 24h

$28,004 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

15%→ 58% 7d

$177,082 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) — July 31 at 58% (+19 pts/24h, +43 pts/7d); Iran military action against a gulf state on...? — July 25 at 2% (-60 pts/7d).

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) $603,069 · 24h

July 3158%▲ 19 24hJuly 2448%▲ 17 24hAugust 1464%▲ 11 24hAugust 3166%▲ 7 24h

Iran military action against a gulf state on...? $66,125 · 24h

July 252.3%▼ 60 7dJuly 2318%▼ 10 24hJuly 2410%▼ 1 24hJuly 277.5%▼ 7 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? $1,130,542 · 24h

July 3188%▲ 3 24hAugust 1566%▲ 24 7dAugust 3157%▲ 3 24hJuly 2995%▲ 6 24h

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? $144,647 · 24h

July 3197%▲ 2 24hAugust 3198%▲ 25 7dJuly 2894%

Iran full airspace closure by...? $145,457 · 24h

July 316.5%▼ 3 24hAugust 3126%▼ 4 24hAugust 1520%▼ 2 24hJuly 271.5%▼ 1 24h

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? $26,157 · 24h

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?61%▲ 8 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: 2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner — PH at 34% (-14 pts/24h); Fed Decision in July? — No change at 80% (+1 pts/24h, -14 pts/7d).

2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner $38,432 · 24h

PH34%▼ 14 24hBN64%▲ 10 24h

Fed Decision in July? $3,287,456 · 24h

No change80%▲ 1 24h25 bps increase20%▲ 14 7d

Fed Decision in September? $36,121 · 24h

No change44%▲ 3 24h25 bps increase50%▼ 3 24h25 bps decrease4%▲ 1 7d50+ bps decrease1.9%

Berlin State Election Winner $21,525 · 24h

AfD23%▲ 1 24hLinke33%▼ 4 7dGrüne14%▼ 1 7dCDU26%▼ 1 7d

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place $37,307 · 24h

Renan Santos15%▲ 5 24hLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva4.7%▼ 4 24hFlávio Bolsonaro76%▼ 2 24h

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner $36,829 · 24h

Haley Stevens36%▲ 4 24hAbdul El-Sayed64%▼ 1 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __? — ↑ 3T yuan at 89% (+55 pts/24h); Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 77% (+24 pts/7d).

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __? $191,915 · 24h

↑ 3T yuan89%▲ 55 24h↑ 3.5T yuan34%▲ 12 24h

Largest Company end of July? $133,653 · 24h

NVIDIA77%▲ 24 7dApple23%▼ 1 24h

Fed rate hike by...? $47,653 · 24h

September Meeting54%▼ 7 24hOctober Meeting62%▼ 6 24hJuly Meeting18%▼ 2 24h

Fed rate hike in 2026? $67,609 · 24h

Fed rate hike in 2026?66%▼ 5 24h

Largest Company end of August? $23,773 · 24h

NVIDIA72%▲ 17 7dApple26%▲ 2 24hAlphabet4%▼ 2 24h

Largest Company end of December 2026? $26,546 · 24h

Apple28%▼ 2 24hNVIDIA57%▲ 1 24hAlphabet9.5%▼ 1 7d

Science & Tech

Markets price: Best AI model on August 1? — Other at 98% (+80 pts/24h, +93 pts/7d); Best AI model on August 10? — Other at 94% (+71 pts/24h).

Best AI model on August 1? $26,406 · 24h

Other98%▲ 80 24hclaude-opus-4-6-thinking1.7%▼ 80 24h

Best AI model on August 10? $20,555 · 24h

Other94%▲ 71 24hclaude-opus-4-6-thinking4.5%▼ 71 24h

Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut? $49,497 · 24h

1500+97%▲ 69 24h1490+98%▲ 46 24h1480+98%▲ 27 24h1510+4.7%▼ 3 24h

Which company has best AI model end of August? $57,621 · 24h

Google7.4%▲ 2 24hAnthropic88%▼ 2 24hOpenAI3.6%▲ 1 24h

New pandemic in 2026? $30,558 · 24h

New pandemic in 2026?8%▲ 2 24h

Which company has best AI model end of July? $47,339 · 24h

Anthropic99%▲ 1 7d

Sports

Markets price: Next Italian National Team Head Coach — Andrea Pirlo at 21% (-78 pts/24h, -30 pts/7d); Where will Yan Diomande transfer? — Real Madrid at 98% (+23 pts/24h, +94 pts/7d).

Next Italian National Team Head Coach $40,841 · 24h

Andrea Pirlo21%▼ 78 24hRoberto Mancini35%▲ 35 24hAntonio Conte17%▲ 17 24hThiago Motta5%▲ 5 24h

Where will Yan Diomande transfer? $21,020 · 24h

Real Madrid98%▲ 23 24h

BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Winner $92,495 · 24h

Spirit44%▲ 5 24hMOUZ17%▼ 2 24hLiquid14%▲ 2 24hFaZe9.6%▼ 1 24h

F1 Drivers' Champion $210,791 · 24h

Kimi Antonelli75%▲ 6 24hLewis Hamilton9.4%▼ 4 24hGeorge Russell5.5%▼ 1 24hLando Norris3.1%▲ 1 7d

F1 Constructors' Champion $169,304 · 24h

Ferrari11%▼ 5 24hMercedes85%▲ 4 24h

NBA: 2027 Champion $433,490 · 24h

Philadelphia 76ers14%▲ 1 24hNew York Knicks8.5%▲ 1 7dIndiana Pacers1.8%Detroit Pistons2.9%

Culture

Markets price: # of views of MrBeast video week 1? — <40M at 84% (+21 pts/24h, +75 pts/7d); "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office — 86-92m at 96% (+12 pts/24h, +52 pts/7d).

# of views of MrBeast video week 1? $29,738 · 24h

<40M84%▲ 21 24h40-50M12%▼ 12 24h

"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office $57,684 · 24h

86-92m96%▲ 12 24h92-98m2.6%▼ 11 24h

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? $29,195 · 24h

A Toxic Love Story92%▲ 7 24h72 Hours9%▼ 8 24h

Highest grossing movie in 2026? $44,861 · 24h

Avengers: Doomsday9.5%▼ 1 24hThe Odyssey2.2%▼ 1 24hToy Story 52.2%▼ 2 7d