What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Apple Retakes the Crown: Markets Flip on World's Biggest Company
In a single trading day, traders swapped NVIDIA and Apple's rankings entirely — Apple surged to 79% favorite for largest company honors while NVIDIA cratered to 22%, a mirror-image reversal across both the top and second-place contracts.
Markets executed a wholesale swap of the corporate pecking order Tuesday: Apple's odds of ending July as the world's largest company by market cap rocketed to 79%, up 56 points on the day and 50 over the week, while NVIDIA's cratered to just 22%, down an identical 56 points — the second-place contract flipped in perfect mirror image, NVIDIA now favored there at 77%. Geopolitical risk kept fading in parallel: Iran military action against a Gulf state fell to 4%, down 14 points on the day and 51 over the week, while an Israel-Iran ceasefire through July 31 firmed to 94%, up 7. In AI, the next Claude Opus's Arena-debut probability leapt to 95%, up 91 points in 24 hours — the sharpest move anywhere in today's data. In Rome, Roberto Mancini's odds of taking Italy's bench climbed further to 53%, up 18, as Andrea Pirlo's collapsed to 2%.
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
4.7%→95%24h
$52,561 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
77%→22%24h
$132,045 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
12%→78%7d
$9,246 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
78%→22%24h
$21,516 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
31%→84%7d
$18,846 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
55%→4.2%7d
$19,853 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
9.5%→49%7d
$290,093 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?
40%→1.6%7d
$25,940 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-related risk kept draining out of the market: military action against a Gulf state fell to 4% (-14 pts/24h, -51/7d) across dated contracts, while ceasefire bets firmed up — US-Iran ceasefire by August 31 now 70% (+19/7d), Israel-Iran ceasefire through July 31 at 94% (+7/+20). Contracts on Iran losing control of Hormuz and Abu Musa Islands both sit at 4%, down more than 20 points on the week.
The Fed's July decision, resolving within hours, saw a late wobble: 'no change' odds slipped to 72% (-8) as a 25bps-hike bet gained 7 points to 27%. September traders lean the same direction, with a hike now 56% (+5/+14). In Malaysia, Negeri Sembilan's BN camp surged to 74% (+10/+27) over PH.
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?32%▼ 5 24h
Economy & Crypto
The largest-company race flipped wholesale: Apple jumped to 79% (+56/+50) for end-of-July honors as NVIDIA collapsed to 22% (-56/-47), with the second-place contract mirroring it exactly. By end of August the race resets to a near coin flip, 48% apiece. Broader Fed-path markets also drifted toward 'Other' outcomes, now 70% (+14/+28), away from a clean pause streak.
The next Claude Opus's Arena-debut probability leapt to 95% for clearing 1510+, up 91 points on the day — the sharpest move in today's data. Moonshot jumped to 75% (+69/+32) as second-best WebDev coding lab for August, at Anthropic's expense (18%, -35/-28), even as Anthropic holds a 90% lead for best overall model.
Roberto Mancini's bid for Italy's bench kept compounding, now 53% (+18/+36), while Andrea Pirlo's odds were ground down to 2% (-19/-38). Salah's Süper Lig favorite status cooled to 45% (-31 on the day). Vinicius Junior markets still favor a Real Madrid stay at 69% (-8/-18), as Arsenal's bid gained to 29% (+8/+22).
Philadelphia Phillies24%▼ 17 7dAtlanta Braves72%▼ 4 24h
Culture
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' tightened its grip on the box-office over/under, >280m now 84% (+11/+54), and held its lead as 2026's top-grosser at 82%. MrBeast's sub-40M week-1 view count sat at 78% as its deadline arrived, the tail of a 66-point weekly climb. 'A Toxic Love Story' remains Netflix's top film at 98%.