What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? moved from 5% to 95% over the last 24h; Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 77% to 22% over the last 24h; Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? moved from 12% to 78% over the last 7d; Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 78% to 22% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
4.7%→95%24h
$52,561 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
77%→22%24h
$132,045 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
12%→78%7d
$9,246 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
78%→22%24h
$21,516 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
31%→84%7d
$18,846 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
55%→4.2%7d
$19,853 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
9.5%→49%7d
$290,093 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?
40%→1.6%7d
$25,940 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Iran military action against a gulf state on...? — July 23 at 4% (-14 pts/24h, -51 pts/7d); US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) — July 24 at 49% (+2 pts/24h, +40 pts/7d).
Markets price: Fed Decision in July? — No change at 72% (-8 pts/24h, -21 pts/7d); 2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner — BN at 74% (+10 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d).
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?32%▼ 5 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 22% (-56 pts/24h, -47 pts/7d); 2nd Largest Company end of July? — Apple at 22% (-56 pts/24h, -46 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut? — 1510+ at 95% (+91 pts/24h, +89 pts/7d); Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August? — Moonshot at 75% (+69 pts/24h, +32 pts/7d).
Markets price: Which league will Mo Salah play in next? — Süper Lig at 45% (-31 pts/24h, -25 pts/7d); Next Italian National Team Head Coach — Andrea Pirlo at 2% (-19 pts/24h, -38 pts/7d).