What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?: 3% → 87%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026? moved from 3% to 87% over the last 24h; Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? moved from 68% to 4% over the last 24h; Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 74% to 16% over the last 7d; Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 76% to 15% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?
3.3%→87%24h
$5,789 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
68%→4.2%24h
$64,954 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
74%→16%7d
$151,478 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
76%→15%7d
$15,644 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
28%→83%7d
$33,010 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
65%→32%24h
$89,430 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
18%→49%7d
$15,381 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
26%→52%7d
$36,505 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for? — No Handshake at 87% (+84 pts/24h); How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20? — <50 at 4% (-64 pts/24h, -19 pts/7d).
Markets price: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? at 26% (-10 pts/24h, -20 pts/7d); Bulgaria Presidential Election — Iliana Iotova at 72% (+14 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d).
Markets price: Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 16% (-6 pts/24h, -59 pts/7d); 2nd Largest Company end of July? — Apple at 15% (-6 pts/24h, -60 pts/7d).
Markets price: BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Winner — Spirit at 52% (+4 pts/24h, +26 pts/7d); Where will Vinicius Junior transfer? — Arsenal at 17% (-12 pts/24h, +11 pts/7d).