Geopolitics
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?
3.3%→
87%
24h
Traders trimmed the odds of Israel-Iran and US-Iran ceasefires holding on nearly every dated contract, even as hopes for a next round of talks slipped further out of reach. Meanwhile Apple clawed back into a dead heat with Nvidia for the world's largest company, and 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' firmed toward blockbuster territory.
Confidence in Iran diplomacy cracked across nearly every Polymarket contract. The odds an Israel-Iran ceasefire survives to August 9 fell to 76%, down 11 points, while the August 15 contract eased to 66%, off 10; separately, traders marked down the odds of a formal US-Iran ceasefire taking effect by August 31 to 62% (-8 points) and by August 14 to 56% (-8), even as expectations for a next round of talks by August 7 collapsed to just 8%, down 18 points, on $85,662 traded. Economics offered a rare rally: Apple's odds of reclaiming the world's-largest-company crown by August 31 rose to 49%, up 31 points on the week, drawing level with Nvidia's fading 48%. And at the box office, 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' clearing $280 million opening weekend firmed to 83%, up 54 points over seven days.
Every Iran-related contract moved the same direction: down. The Israel-Iran ceasefire's odds of lasting to August 9 fell to 76% (-11 points) and to August 15 dropped to 66% (-10); the odds of a formal US-Iran ceasefire taking hold slipped to 62% by August 31 and 56% by August 14 (both -8), while hopes for a next round of talks by August 7 collapsed to 8% (-18). Traders also cut the odds of a US anti-cartel strike abroad by July 31 to 32% (-33), and, more curiously, priced 'no Trump-Netanyahu handshake' up to 87% (+84).
Bulgaria's presidential race swung sharply toward Iliana Iotova, whose odds jumped to 72% (+14 on the day, +20 on the week) as Andrey Gyurov's collapsed to 20% (-16). In Missouri's 1st District Democratic primary, Wesley Bell's lead over Cori Bush narrowed to 56%-44%, an 8-point drop for Bell against a 5-point gain for Bush. The Fed's July no-change odds settled at 78% as the meeting arrived, while traders nudged September's 25-basis-point-hike odds to 56%, up 7 points over the week.
The largest-company crown flipped again: Apple's odds of leading by July 31 rose to 85% (+6 on the day, +60 over the week) as Nvidia slid to 16% (-6, -59). Looking further out, the August 31 contest is now a coin flip — Apple 49% (+31 on the week) versus Nvidia 48% (-27). GRVT's projected valuation firmed, with sub-$300 million first-day FDV odds at 74% (+8). The Reserve Bank of Australia is priced 93% (+10) to hold rates steady in August.
Vinicius Junior's market swung back toward Real Madrid, now priced at 78% to keep him (+10 on the day), reversing a week that had favored a departure. In esports, Spirit's odds of winning BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 rose to 52% (+4 on the day, +26 on the week), with MOUZ close behind at 23% (+6). Harry Kane remains the Ballon d'Or favorite at 46% (+5 on the week), while Oklahoma City leads 2027 NBA title futures at 22%, down 4 on the week.
Anticipation for 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' keeps building: its odds of clearing $280 million opening weekend hold at 83% (+54 on the week), and it's now favored as 2026's highest-grossing film at 82% (+7). Its odds of the year's single biggest opening weekend rose to 44% (+4), still trailing 'Avengers: Doomsday' at 56% (-4). Critics' scores wobbled, though: the chance of a 90-plus Rotten Tomatoes score fell to 68%, down 14 points on the day.
Diplomats can't agree on a ceasefire or a handshake, but Spider-Man is still swinging in on schedule.
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