Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
87%→
7.5%
7d
Traders now give Apple a 93% chance of ending July atop the corporate world, an 80-point weekly reversal that also flipped the race for second place. NVIDIA, briefly installed as the world's biggest company, has slid to just 8%.
Markets rewrote the corporate hierarchy this week: traders now put Apple's odds of finishing July as the largest company at 93%, up 80 points on the week, while NVIDIA's claim collapsed to 8% — a reversal that holds into the August contract too (Apple 58%, NVIDIA 38%). Geopolitics moved just as sharply: traders now see a 77% chance of a U.S. anti-cartel operation abroad within the next day and a half, up 44 points in a single day, even as Iran ceasefire odds for July 31 slid 22 points to 22% on the day (still +6 on the week). In the primaries, Wesley Bell surged to 65% (+10 on the day, +20 on the week) against Cori Bush in Missouri's 1st, and Abdul El-Sayed climbed to 84% (+8) in Michigan's Senate race. September Fed rate-hike odds cooled 14 points to 55%.
Traders assigned a 77% chance of a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside the country within the next day and a half, a 44-point jump in a single day. The Iran ceasefire complex told a split story: the July 31 contract fell 22 points to 22% on the day but sits 6 points above where it stood a week ago, while Israel's continued-ceasefire odds through July 31 held near 92%. Russia's advance into Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka firmed to 98%, up 48 points on the day.
Missouri's 1st District primary flipped hard toward Wesley Bell, now 65% (+10 on the day, +20 on the week) against incumbent Cori Bush's 34%. Michigan's Democratic Senate primary moved the same direction, with Abdul El-Sayed rising to 84% (+8) over Haley Stevens' 16%. Fed watchers firmed up 'no change' odds for the October meeting to 64% (+4 on the day), while House control odds barely moved, Democrats still favored at 86%.
Apple reclaimed the market-cap throne markets had briefly handed NVIDIA: traders now give Apple 93% odds of finishing July as the largest company, up 80 points on the week, with NVIDIA's share cratering to 8%. The same reversal holds into August, 58% to 38%. Meanwhile, rate-hike odds for the September Fed meeting eased to 55% (-14 on the day), and odds of any 2026 hike fell to 66% (-9).
Anthropic's grip on the AI conversation tightened further: markets give it 94% odds of fielding the best model at month's end (+3 on the day) and 80% odds for the best agent (+2), both extending weekly gains. Traders cooled further on a Tesla-SpaceX merger ever landing, cutting September odds to just 2% (-7 on the day, -8 on the week).
Vinicius Junior's market-implied path to Real Madrid loosened to 70% (-9 on the day, -24 on the week) as Arsenal's odds climbed to 20% (+3 on the day, +10 on the week). In esports, BLAST Bounty saw Spirit and MOUZ both post double-digit weekly gains, to 52% and 23%. Harry Kane held a narrow Ballon d'Or lead at 49% (+3), while LaLiga's 2027 title race stayed a near coin flip between Barcelona (52%) and Real Madrid (44%).
With the clock essentially run out, MrBeast's latest video settled at 95% odds of under 40 million first-week views (+25 on the day) — a deadline effect more than a surprise. More telling: 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' opening-weekend odds above $280m climbed to 88%, up 51 points on the week as tracking estimates firmed. A new 'Stranger Things' episode by March 2027 lost 40 points of confidence over the week, down to just 10%.
Markets don't do loyalty: NVIDIA lost the crown, Cori Bush lost the lead, and Iran's ceasefire lost the room — all before lunch.
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