Thursday, July 30, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 50

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?: 87…

Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 87% to 8% over the last 7d; U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? moved from 8% to 77% over the last 7d; Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? moved from 7% to 95% over the last 7d; Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 14% to 92% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Economy & Crypto

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

87% 7.5% 7d
$235,908 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

8.5% 77% 7d
$564,415 traded · 24h
Culture

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?

7.3% 95% 7d
$13,494 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

14% 92% 7d
$20,894 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?

38% 98% 7d
$58,069 traded · 24h
Culture

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

37% 88% 7d
$15,860 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

80% 38% 7d
$19,282 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

42% 5.5% 7d
$71,365 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? — July 31 at 77% (+44 pts/24h, +68 pts/7d); Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...? — September 30 at 98% (+48 pts/24h, +60 pts/7d).

July 3177%▲ 44 24h
September 3098%▲ 48 24hDecember 3198%▲ 13 24h
July 3122%▼ 22 24hAugust 1442%▼ 14 24hAugust 3152%▼ 10 24h
July 315.5%▲ 1 24hAugust 1526%▲ 3 24hAugust 3138%▲ 5 24hDecember 3158%▲ 8 24h
July 3192%▲ 1 24hAugust 1564%▼ 1 24hAugust 3148%▼ 6 24hAugust 972%▼ 4 24h
July 312.6%▼ 2 24hAugust 1520%▲ 2 24hAugust 3132%▲ 3 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner — Cori Bush at 34% (-10 pts/24h, -22 pts/7d); Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Haley Stevens at 16% (-9 pts/24h, -6 pts/7d).

Cori Bush34%▼ 10 24hWesley Bell65%▲ 10 24h
Haley Stevens16%▼ 9 24hAbdul El-Sayed84%▲ 8 24h
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?28%▲ 2 24h
25 bps increase22%▼ 1 24hNo change64%▲ 4 24h25 bps decrease7.5%▼ 2 24h50+ bps decrease2.1%
Fed Decision in September? $1,163,425 · 24h
No change38%▼ 2 24h25 bps increase56%▲ 6 7d25 bps decrease2.4%▼ 1 24h
Republican Party14%▲ 2 24hDemocratic Party86%▼ 1 7d

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 8% (-8 pts/24h, -80 pts/7d); 2nd Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 92% (+11 pts/24h, +79 pts/7d).

NVIDIA7.5%▼ 8 24hApple93%▲ 8 24h
NVIDIA92%▲ 11 24hApple7.5%▼ 8 24h
NVIDIA38%▼ 10 24hApple58%▲ 10 24hAlphabet4.3%▲ 1 7d
Fed rate hike by...? $110,918 · 24h
September Meeting55%▼ 14 24hOctober Meeting60%▼ 14 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? $911,299 · 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026?66%▼ 9 24h
Other62%▼ 10 24hPause–Pause–Pause33%▲ 11 24hPause–Pause–Cut3.2%▲ 2 7d

Science & Tech

Markets price: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? — September 30 at 2% (-7 pts/24h, -8 pts/7d); Which company has the best AI Agent end of August? — Anthropic at 80% (+2 pts/24h, +12 pts/7d).

September 301.6%▼ 7 24hDecember 3116%▼ 2 24h
Anthropic80%▲ 2 24hOpenAI20%▼ 1 24h
Anthropic94%▲ 3 24hGoogle2.1%▼ 1 24hOpenAI2.8%▼ 1 24h

Sports

Markets price: Where will Vinicius Junior transfer? — Real Madrid at 70% (-9 pts/24h, -24 pts/7d); BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Winner — MOUZ at 23% (+17 pts/7d).

Real Madrid70%▼ 9 24hArsenal20%▲ 3 24hManchester City2.8%▲ 2 7d
MOUZ23%▲ 17 7dSpirit52%▲ 15 7dLiquid7.5%▼ 1 24hThe MongolZ4.9%▼ 1 24h
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 $350,955 · 24h
Harry Kane49%▲ 3 24hRodri8.5%▼ 1 24hLamine Yamal24%▼ 3 7dKylian Mbappé9.8%▼ 2 7d
NBA: 2027 Champion $208,858 · 24h
Philadelphia 76ers14%▲ 7 7dOklahoma City Thunder22%▼ 4 7dSan Antonio Spurs20%▲ 1 7dLos Angeles Lakers2.1%
LALIGA: 2027 Champion $240,744 · 24h
Real Madrid44%▲ 2 24hBarcelona52%▼ 1 7d
Ferrari12%▲ 2 24hMercedes84%▼ 4 7dMcLaren1.8%▲ 1 24h

Culture

Markets price: # of views of MrBeast video week 1? — <40M at 95% (+25 pts/24h, +88 pts/7d); "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office — >280m at 88% (+6 pts/24h, +51 pts/7d).

<40M95%▲ 25 24h40-50M4.5%▼ 22 24h
>280m88%▲ 6 24h260-280m7.3%▼ 4 24h240-260m3.4%▼ 1 24h220-240m2.1%▲ 1 24h
March 31, 202710%▼ 40 7d
300-310m14%▼ 11 24h310-320m13%▼ 10 24h350m+17%▲ 6 24h<280m13%▼ 3 24h

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

The weekly digest

The week’s biggest probability moves, in one email every Sunday. Free.