What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?: 7%…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 7% to 87% over the last 24h; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? moved from 17% to 92% over the last 7d; Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? moved from 92% to 12% over the last 24h; U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? moved from 9% to 72% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
7.5%→87%24h
$640,363 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
17%→92%7d
$204,038 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
92%→12%24h
$63,540 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
8.5%→72%7d
$279,745 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
7%→64%7d
$14,503 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
45%→98%7d
$25,419 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?
66%→7%24h
$5,595 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
70%→20%24h
$6,472 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — December 31, 2026 at 92% (+64 pts/24h, +75 pts/7d); U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? — July 31 at 72% (-5 pts/24h, +63 pts/7d).
Markets price: Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 87% (+80 pts/24h, -1 pts/7d); 2nd Largest Company end of July? — NVIDIA at 12% (-80 pts/24h, +4 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 14 at 74% (+44 pts/24h); Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? — September 30 at 4% (+2 pts/24h, -6 pts/7d).
Markets price: BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Winner — Spirit at 63% (+12 pts/24h, +27 pts/7d); Where will Vinicius Junior transfer? — Real Madrid at 72% (+2 pts/24h, -22 pts/7d).
Markets price: What will be the top US Netflix show this week? — The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare at 91% (+37 pts/24h); "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office — >280m at 98% (+10 pts/24h, +53 pts/7d).