What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Gaza and Iran Fronts Both Firm Up as Traders Price a Middle East Thaw
Disarmament and ceasefire markets surged together for the first time in months, while Michigan's Senate primary flipped underneath everyone's feet.
Middle East peace markets repriced sharply overnight. Traders now put Hamas disarmament by December 31 at 92%, up 64 points on the day and 75 over the week, while a second-phase Gaza ceasefire by year's end jumped to 64% (+49 points/24h, +57/7d). The Israel-Iran truce is holding better than expected too: odds it survives through August 31 climbed to 64% (+17/24h, +37/7d), with the near-term July 31 contract at 98%. Closer to home, Michigan's Senate primary flipped in real time — Abdul El-Sayed surged to 70% in Wayne County (+41 points) and 51% in Oakland (+44), while Haley Stevens collapsed to 20% and 49% respectively. Elsewhere, NVIDIA reclaimed the largest-company crown at 87% (+80 points) as today's deadline arrives, undoing yesterday's Apple flip — though that swing owes more to the calendar than conviction.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
7.5%→87%24h
$640,363 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
17%→92%7d
$204,038 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
92%→12%24h
$63,540 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
8.5%→72%7d
$279,745 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
7%→64%7d
$14,503 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
45%→98%7d
$25,419 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?
66%→7%24h
$5,595 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
70%→20%24h
$6,472 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The week's clearest signal: three separate Gaza/Iran contracts moved the same direction at once. Hamas disarmament by December 31 jumped to 92% (+64/24h, +75/7d), a Phase II ceasefire to 64% (+49/24h), and the Israel-Iran truce's odds of lasting to August 31 rose to 64% (+17/24h, +37/7d). Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30 also firmed to 54% (+29/24h). The U.S. anti-cartel operation contract, sitting at 72%, is drifting mainly because its window closes in roughly six hours.
August 1512%▼ 9 24hJuly 311.6%▼ 1 24hAugust 3124%▼ 8 24h
Politics & Elections
Michigan's Senate primary reshuffled hard: Abdul El-Sayed jumped to 70% in Wayne County (+41/24h, +28/7d) and 51% in Oakland (+44/24h, +33/7d), as Haley Stevens fell to 20% and 49%. South Carolina's GOP special primary tightened too, with Darline Graham Nordone slipping to 55% (-19/24h) and Ralph Norman climbing to 40% (+16/24h). Trump's insult market saw Jerome Powell's odds collapse to 2% (-36/24h) and Emmanuel Macron's fall to 30% (-18/24h), with the day's deadline looming.
NVIDIA retook the largest-company title at 87% (+80/24h) as today's resolution deadline arrives, flipping Apple back to 14% — a reversal of yesterday's move that owes more to the calendar than new conviction. Looking further out, NVIDIA already leads the August contest at 62% (+24/24h). GRVT's post-launch valuation odds cratered across every threshold, with $350M+ falling to 7% (-60/24h). The Bank of Japan's September hike odds rose to 40% (+19/24h).
Traders pulled forward their expectations for the next Google Gemini Pro release, with the August 14 contract up to 74% (+44/24h), August 21 to 80% (+32/24h), and August 31 to 86% (+22/24h) — a broad-based repricing toward an imminent launch. Anthropic remains the runaway favorite for best AI model through August at 92%.
Spirit firmed to 63% (+12/24h, +27/7d) favorite for BLAST Bounty Season 2, while MOUZ held at 20%. Harry Kane stayed the Ballon d'Or favorite at 51%, and Vinícius Júnior's market kept Real Madrid at 72% for his next transfer despite Arsenal creeping up to 25% (+20/7d).
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" crossed 98% (+10/24h, +53/7d) odds of a $280M+ opening, with its 800–900M domestic-gross band rising to 55% (+21/24h, +48/7d). Eurovision 2027's host city flipped meaningfully, with Sofia falling to 68% (-23/24h, -20/7d) as Burgas climbed to 27% (+18/24h, +17/7d). Netflix's weekly top-show market also flipped, with "The Idaho Murders" surging to 91%.