What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Gaza Disarmament Bet Craters, Iran Ceasefire Confidence Slips
Markets that spent the week pricing a Gaza-Iran thaw spent today unwinding it. Hamas disarmament odds fell 31 points and Israel-Iran ceasefire confidence eroded across every horizon, even as a transfer saga and a Fed bet moved the other way.
Traders spent yesterday pricing a Gaza-Iran thaw; today they're taking it back. Markets on Hamas disarming by December 31 fell to 60%, down 31 points on the day even after a 44-point weekly climb, while confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through August 31 slid to 43%, down 22 points, with every nearer deadline sliding in tandem on $1.7m in trading. Elsewhere, the transfer saga swung hard: Arsenal's odds of landing Vinicius Junior jumped to 45%, up 20 points on the day and 44 over the week, as Real Madrid's retention odds sank to 55%. In Washington, traders lifted the odds of a 25bp Fed hike in September to 60%, up 7 points. And in Hollywood's awards circuit, Colman Domingo's Emmy favorite status for 'Euphoria' crumbled to 34%, down 28 points, as rivals gained ground.
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
26%→73%7d
$93,698 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
<1%→45%7d
$52,367 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
50%→2.5%7d
$10,937 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
8.5%→53%7d
$8,991 traded · 24h
Culture
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
28%→60%7d
$23,524 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
64%→97%7d
$17,061 traded · 24h
Culture
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
64%→34%7d
$20,815 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Yesterday's Middle East thaw is fraying. Hamas disarmament by December 31 dropped to 60%, down 31 points in a day that erased nearly all its 44-point weekly gain. The Israel-Iran ceasefire curve fell in lockstep — 84% through August 2, 68% through August 9, 57% through August 15, 43% through August 31 — down 10 to 22 points apiece. US-Iran ceasefire odds also retreated, with the blockade market's August 15 contract falling 18 points to 8%.
Fed watchers moved decisively: traders now put a 25bp September hike at 60%, up 7 points, while odds of no change fell 6 points to 38%. In South Carolina's Senate primary, Darline Graham Nordone holds a 61% lead as Ralph Norman's odds cratered 19 points to 20%. In Trump's insult market, Marjorie Taylor Greene's odds tumbled 22 points to 26% as the July 31 deadline passed, while Emmanuel Macron climbed 12 points to 42%.
The 'largest company' race flipped hard: NVIDIA's odds of topping the list by end of August jumped 10 points to 72%, while Apple sank 16 points to 18%. For second place, Alphabet surged 26 points to 34% as NVIDIA slid 16 points to 14%. Anthropic's IPO-by-October-31 odds rose 12 points to 36%, even as the December 31 contract eased 1 point to 62%.
September Meeting60%▲ 8 24hOctober Meeting65%▲ 4 24h
Science & Tech
Google's next Gemini Pro release drew closer on the calendar, with the August 14 contract falling 24 points to 50% as traders shifted weight toward the August 31 deadline, now 90%. GPT-6 markets stayed skeptical of an August arrival, at 7% for August 21 and 10% for August 31, with December 31 the favored date at 90%. Anthropic remains the runaway favorite for best AI model, up 2 points to 95%.
The Vinicius Junior transfer saga swung sharply toward Arsenal, up 20 points on the day and 44 over the week to 45%, as Real Madrid's hold on him slipped 18 points to 55%. On the golf course, Cameron Young surged into Rocket Classic contention, his top-10 odds up 54 points to 76% and outright win odds up 22 points to 25%, with the tournament closing within a day.
Awards season reshuffled: Colman Domingo's Emmy favorite status for 'Euphoria' fell 28 points to 34%, with Bradley Whitford and Ernest Harden Jr. both gaining ground. Box-office markets, meanwhile, mostly reflect the calendar — 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' opening-weekend odds above $350m jumped 36 points to 73% as its release date nears, a shift better read as clock-running-out than fresh conviction.