What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?: 16% → 60%
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? moved from 16% to 60% over the last 7d; Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? moved from 26% to 73% over the last 7d; Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? moved from 1% to 45% over the last 7d; Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? moved from 50% to 3% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
26%→73%7d
$93,698 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
<1%→45%7d
$52,367 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
50%→2.5%7d
$10,937 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
8.5%→53%7d
$8,991 traded · 24h
Culture
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
28%→60%7d
$23,524 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
64%→97%7d
$17,061 traded · 24h
Culture
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
64%→34%7d
$20,815 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — December 31, 2026 at 60% (-31 pts/24h, +44 pts/7d); Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? — António Guterres at 64% (+49 pts/24h).
Markets price: 2nd Largest Company end of August? — Alphabet at 34% (+26 pts/24h, +24 pts/7d); Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...? — December 31 at 12% (-18 pts/24h).
September Meeting60%▲ 8 24hOctober Meeting65%▲ 4 24h
Science & Tech
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 14 at 50% (-24 pts/24h); GPT-6 released by…? — August 31, 2026 at 10% (-16 pts/24h, -18 pts/7d).
Markets price: PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Top 10 — Cameron Young at 76% (+54 pts/24h); Where will Vinicius Junior transfer? — Arsenal at 45% (+20 pts/24h, +44 pts/7d).