What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?…
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? moved from 14% to 97% over the last 7d; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? moved from 11% to 56% over the last 24h; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? moved from 14% to 64% over the last 7d; Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2? moved from 40% to 78% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
14%→97%7d
$61,490 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
11%→56%24h
$1,023,236 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
14%→64%7d
$87,006 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
40%→78%7d
$88,318 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
50%→2.1%7d
$7,742 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
37%→79%7d
$11,713 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
42%→5.9%7d
$25,225 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
66%→97%7d
$30,111 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) — July 31 at 56% (+45 pts/24h, +17 pts/7d); US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — August 15 at 38% (+30 pts/24h).
August 315.9%▼ 37 7dOctober 3114%▼ 3 24hDecember 3126%▼ 1 24h
Politics & Elections
Markets price: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner — Mark Sanford at 2% (-48 pts/7d); Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Abdul El-Sayed at 97% (+32 pts/7d).
Markets price: Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31? — <$0.70T at 79% (-21 pts/24h, +42 pts/7d); PPI YoY - July 2026 — 5.2% at 10% (-20 pts/24h, -22 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 7 at 6% (-4 pts/24h, -25 pts/7d); #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026? — Avengers: Doomsday at 2% (-11 pts/24h).
Markets price: Which league will Mo Salah play in next? — Süper Lig at 70% (+36 pts/24h, -2 pts/7d); BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Winner — Spirit at 78% (+13 pts/24h, +39 pts/7d).