Monday, August 3, 2026GraphArchiveSubscribeDaily · No. 54

The Probable Times

What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news

Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?: 8% → 61%

Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m? moved from 8% to 61% over the last 24h; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? moved from 14% to 60% over the last 7d; Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? moved from 58% to 97% over the last 24h; Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m? moved from 26% to 64% over the last 24h. Full section tables below.

Today’s biggest movesprobability shifts, volume-weighted
Culture

Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?

7.9% 61% 24h
$23,574 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

14% 60% 7d
$23,522 traded · 24h
Culture

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

58% 97% 24h
$86,558 traded · 24h
Culture

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?

26% 64% 24h
$24,708 traded · 24h
Sports

Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Wyndham Championship?

48% 6.2% 24h
$6,933 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

64% 98% 7d
$12,262 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?

42% 8% 7d
$9,768 traded · 24h
Geopolitics

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

58% 32% 24h
$166,266 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Who will Trump speak to in July? — Emmanuel Macron at 32% (-25 pts/24h, -17 pts/7d); Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — December 31, 2026 at 60% (-3 pts/24h, +47 pts/7d).

Emmanuel Macron32%▼ 25 24hElon Musk5%▼ 2 24hLula da Silva1.7%▼ 5 24hUrsula von der Leyen26%▼ 7 24h
December 31, 202660%▼ 3 24h
Alibaba86%▲ 23 24hMoonshot5%▼ 16 24hDeepSeek2.6%▼ 3 24hZ.ai7.5%▲ 1 24h
August 318%▼ 34 7dSeptember 3022%▼ 6 24hDecember 3152%▼ 8 24h
December 3192%▼ 1 24hOctober 3189%▼ 2 24hAugust 1547%▲ 8 24hSeptember 3080%▼ 2 24h
September 3029%▼ 6 24hDecember 3140%▼ 6 24hAugust 1511%▼ 8 24hAugust 3123%▲ 3 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — Hong 30%+ at 36% (-28 pts/24h); Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Abdul El-Sayed at 98% (+1 pts/24h, +33 pts/7d).

Hong 30%+36%▼ 28 24hHong 25–30%34%▲ 20 24hCrowley wins13%▲ 12 24hHong 10–15%3.8%▼ 2 24h
Abdul El-Sayed98%▲ 1 24hHaley Stevens2.4%▼ 34 7d
Farage 70–80%49%▲ 19 24hFarage 40–50%2.5%▼ 5 24hFarage 80%+12%▼ 5 24hFarage 50–60%9.5%▼ 2 24h
Count Binface92%▲ 12 24hWilliam Clouston1.9%▼ 7 24hNigel Farage1.8%▼ 2 24hLaurence Fox4%▼ 1 24h
Abdul El-Sayed80%▼ 13 24hHaley Stevens16%▲ 12 24h
Wesley Bell64%▼ 6 24hCori Bush34%▲ 4 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Core CPI YoY - July 2026 — 2.5% at 42% (+22 pts/24h, +14 pts/7d); Largest Company end of August? — Apple at 18% (-8 pts/7d).

2.5%42%▲ 22 24h2.4%26%▼ 5 24h2.6%18%▲ 11 24h2.7%10%▲ 8 24h
Apple18%▼ 8 7dNVIDIA76%▼ 2 24hAlphabet7.2%▲ 1 24h
$300M49%▲ 6 7d$150M80%▲ 4 24h$500M23%▲ 2 24h$1B4.5%▼ 3 7d
SpaceX92%▲ 6 7dAnthropic7.4%▼ 6 7d
Fed rate hike by...? $32,636 · 24h
September Meeting57%▼ 3 24hOctober Meeting62%▼ 2 24h
≥0.1%64%▲ 1 24h-0.1%3.5%▼ 1 24h0.0%32%▼ 2 24h

Science & Tech

Markets price: #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026? — The Odyssey at 38% (+16 pts/24h); Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 14 at 71% (+10 pts/24h).

The Odyssey38%▲ 16 24hAvengers: Doomsday10%▲ 8 24hSpider-Man: Brand New Day16%▼ 2 24hMichael2.1%▼ 2 24h
August 1471%▲ 10 24hAugust 78%▲ 2 24hAugust 3188%▼ 5 24hAugust 2180%▼ 1 24h
Anthropic70%▲ 7 7dGoogle6.5%▼ 1 24hOpenAI12%▲ 2 24hMoonshot2.4%▲ 1 24h
Anthropic94%▲ 6 7dGoogle3.1%▼ 4 7dOpenAI1.9%▼ 2 7d

Sports

Markets price: PGA Tour: Wyndham Championship Winner — Rasmus Hojgaard at 6% (-41 pts/24h); Where will Emiliano Martinez transfer? — Juventus at 10% (-38 pts/24h, -36 pts/7d).

Rasmus Hojgaard6.2%▼ 41 24h
Juventus10%▼ 38 24hAl-Hilal3.3%▼ 1 24hAston Villa68%▲ 8 24hChelsea7.5%▲ 2 24h
Arsenal32%▼ 10 24hReal Madrid66%▲ 8 24h
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 $342,459 · 24h
Harry Kane54%▲ 9 7dLamine Yamal21%▼ 4 7dKhvicha Kvaratskhelia2.9%▲ 2 24hRodri8.5%▼ 3 7d
Boston Red Sox7.4%▲ 3 24hLos Angeles Dodgers38%▲ 4 7dHouston Astros1.8%▲ 1 7dChicago White Sox2.9%
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?7%▲ 3 24h

Culture

Markets price: "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office — 52-57m at 61% (+53 pts/24h, +18 pts/7d); Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? — Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? at 97% (+39 pts/24h).

52-57m61%▲ 53 24h47-52m35%▼ 52 24h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?97%▲ 39 24h
360-370m64%▲ 37 24h350-360m36%▼ 34 24h
700 - 800m4.5%▼ 6 24h800 - 900m57%▲ 8 24h900m+40%▲ 2 24h
90+97%▲ 16 24h91+3.5%▼ 1 24h
Dune: Messiah6.2%▼ 8 24hProject Hail Mary4.9%The Odyssey80%

Probabilities are the crowd's opinion of tomorrow — updated daily.

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