Culture
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?
7.9%→
61%
24h
Hamas disarmament by December 31 now sits at 60% on prediction markets, up 47 points this week. Meanwhile traders have slashed odds of foreign intervention by August's end to just 8%, down 34 points, pushing the whole Gaza timeline toward year's end.
Prediction markets spent the week pushing Gaza's endgame further down the calendar. Traders now put Hamas disarmament by December 31 at 60%, up 47 points over seven days, while odds of foreign intervention arriving by August 31 collapsed to 8%, down 34 points — yet the December 31 intervention contract climbed to 52%, up 17 points, suggesting the crowd isn't abandoning the idea, just its timing. Nearby, Alibaba's hold on 'best Chinese AI company' tightened to 86%, up 23 points on the day, as Moonshot slid to 5%. Washington-watchers repriced July's core CPI print sharply: a 2.5% year-on-year reading jumped to 42% likelihood, up 22 points on the day. And in Wisconsin, the Democratic gubernatorial primary turned genuinely competitive, with Hong's odds of a 30-point-plus blowout nearly halved to 36%.
Gaza's resolution keeps sliding down the calendar: Hamas disarmament by December 31 rose to 60%, up 47 points on the week, while intervention odds by August 31 sank to 8%, down 34 points, even as the December 31 intervention contract gained 17 points to 52%. Iran's blockade-end odds held near-certain (92% by December, 89% by October). Separately, Alibaba's lead in 'best Chinese AI company' widened to 86%, up 23 points on the day, as Moonshot fell to 5% and DeepSeek to 3%.
Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary turned into a real race: Hong's odds of a 30-point-plus win nearly halved to 36%, down 28 points on the day, while a 25–30% margin gained 20 points to 34% and a Crowley upset rose to 13%. Across the Atlantic, Clacton's by-election saw Count Binface's odds of taking second place climb to 92%, up 12 points. With Michigan's Senate primary and Missouri's 1st District both resolving within a day, El-Sayed (98%) and Wesley Bell (64%) are simply riding the clock to their deadlines.
Inflation traders repriced sharply: a 2.5% July core CPI reading jumped to 42% likelihood, up 22 points on the day, at the expense of the 2.4% outcome (down to 26%). Fed rate-hike odds held elevated at 57% for September and 62% for October. Nvidia's grip on 'largest company by month-end' eased slightly but stayed dominant at 76%, while Apple slipped to 18%, down 8 points on the week. SpaceX remains the runaway favorite for 2026's largest IPO at 92%.
Anthropic's model dominance barely wavered — 94% odds of best AI model by end of August, 70% through year-end — while Google's Gemini Pro release-date markets converged toward their deadlines, with the August 31 contract at 88% and August 21 at 80%. A next Google model still hasn't shipped by the August 7 marker, now priced at just 8%. On search trends, 'The Odyssey' overtook the field for most-searched movie of 2026, rising to 38%, up 16 points on the day, as Spider-Man: Brand New Day slipped to 16%.
Ballon d'Or bettors kept piling onto Harry Kane, now 54%, up 9 points on the week, well clear of Lamine Yamal's 21%. Transfer markets swung hard: Emiliano Martinez's odds of joining Aston Villa rose to 68%, up 8 points on the day, as his Juventus move collapsed to 10%, down 38; Vinicius Junior's Real Madrid stay firmed to 66%. At the Wyndham Championship, Rasmus Hojgaard's title odds fell 41 points to just 6% as the leaderboard turned. The Dodgers remain World Series favorites at 38%, up 4 points on the week.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's box office trajectory kept climbing: traders now put its domestic total above $800 million at 57%, up 8 points on the day, with a $900 million-plus finish gaining to 40%. In the Oscar race, 'The Odyssey' commands 80% odds of leading nominations at the 99th Academy Awards, well ahead of Dune: Messiah at 6%. The Odyssey's own box office markets, meanwhile, settled hard toward their weekend deadline, closing near 61% for a $52–57 million third-weekend take.
Rasmus Hojgaard's Wyndham odds fell 41 points in a day — proof that even on the back nine, prediction markets can shank one.
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