What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m …
Automated edition: today's largest probability moves, reported directly from market prices.
Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? moved from 14% to 73% over the last 7d; Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? moved from 6% to 54% over the last 7d; Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? moved from 48% to 10% over the last 7d; Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? moved from 17% to 51% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
14%→73%7d
$67,699 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
6%→54%7d
$7,473 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
48%→9.5%7d
$17,503 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
17%→51%7d
$39,307 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
10%→47%7d
$15,143 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
39%→72%24h
$13,856 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
30%→1.7%7d
$34,514 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?
26%→3.9%7d
$56,255 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets price: Who will Trump meet with in August? — Elon Musk at 48% (+37 pts/24h); Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — December 31, 2026 at 51% (-10 pts/24h, +34 pts/7d).
Russell Fry17%▲ 13 7dDarline Graham Nordone64%▲ 2 24hRalph Norman18%▲ 3 24h
Economy & Crypto
Markets price: 3rd Largest Company end of August? — Apple at 54% (+23 pts/24h, +48 pts/7d); Largest Company end of August? — Apple at 10% (-8 pts/24h, -39 pts/7d).
Markets price: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — August 10 at 72% (+33 pts/24h); Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — August 14 at 90% (+18 pts/24h).
Markets price: WSOP Main Event Winner — Lauri Saaskilahti at 26% (+20 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d); Where will Vinicius Junior transfer? — Arsenal at 25% (-7 pts/24h, -4 pts/7d).
Kansas City Chiefs8.6%▲ 2 24hPhiladelphia Eagles4.5%Jacksonville Jaguars2.9%Detroit Lions4.2%
Culture
Markets price: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? — 900m+ at 73% (+33 pts/24h, +59 pts/7d); How many Emmys will “Hacks” win? — 4-5 at 40% (+13 pts/24h).