What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Blockade Bets Shift From This Week to This Month
As the August 7 deadline passes without resolution, traders push the blockade's end toward mid-month and beyond, while a broader ceasefire holds near 80% and Rodri's Barcelona move crosses into near-certainty.
Traders rolled the Iran blockade question forward: the August 7 marker cratered to 13% (down 23 points on the day) as that deadline expired unmet, while the August 15 contract climbed to 58% (up 32 points over the week) on $923,000 in volume. The broader ceasefire held at 80% (down 4 on the day, up 52 over the week). In sports, Rodri's move to Barcelona surged to 91% (up 63 points on the day, 88 over the week), all but erasing last week's Real Madrid speculation. Markets also crowned NVIDIA the likely largest company by month's end at 86% (up 25 points over the week), while Google's next Gemini Pro model slipped to a 30% chance of an August 14 release (down 21 points on the day) as its window narrows.
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
24%→76%7d
$12,734 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
74%→30%7d
$22,864 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
92%→49%7d
$21,511 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
26%→58%7d
$173,824 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
38%→5.2%24h
$19,016 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?
3.5%→33%7d
$19,205 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The immediate Iran blockade marker expired unmet, sinking to 13% (down 23 points on the day), but traders pushed conviction into later dates — August 15 at 58% (up 32 over the week), August 31 at 74%, September 30 at 84%. The broader ceasefire held at 80% (up 52 over the week) despite a 4-point daily dip. Hamas disarmament by year-end fell to 49% (down 8 on the day, 42 over the week), and Steve Witkoff's odds of visiting Ukraine jumped to 80% (up 24 on the day).
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?74%▼ 2 24h
Politics & Elections
Ohio's Max Miller saw his odds of dropping out of the OH-07 race by August 9 leap to 33% (up 27 points on the day, 30 over the week) as that deadline nears. Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary flipped sharply: Angie Craig climbed to 30% (up 16 on the day) while Peggy Flanagan slid to 70% (down 13), narrowing what had looked like a rout. The Clarity Act's odds of passage this year eased to 14% (down 18 over the week).
NVIDIA's grip on the largest-company crown tightened to 86% for end of August (up 25 points over the week), even as Apple fell to 10%. STRC's climb to $100 by December edged up to 55%, and traders lifted Anthropic's odds of an IPO by October 31 to 44% (up 5 on the day). Gold bulls cooled, with a run to $5,000 by December slipping to 42% amid a 22-point weekly retreat.
September Meeting50%▲ 4 24hOctober Meeting57%▼ 3 7d
Science & Tech
Google's next Gemini Pro model lost ground on every near-term date — an August 14 release fell to 30% (down 21 points on the day, 44 over the week) as the window closes, and August 10 collapsed to 5% (down 33 on the day). GPT-6 by August 21 rose to 20% (up 17 on the day). Anthropic remained the trader consensus for best model through August and September, at 90% and 86% respectively.
Rodri's transfer market resolved almost entirely toward Barcelona, at 91% (up 63 points on the day, 88 over the week), as Real Madrid and Manchester City both cratered to 4%. Elsewhere, Jannik Sinner remained the US Open favorite at 55%, Harry Kane led the Ballon d'Or race at 58%, and guest odds for Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding shifted lower across the board as the event, resolving within two days, draws near.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's odds of clearing $900 million domestic held at 76% (up 52 points over the week, though down 5 on the day), and traders now see it as 2026's highest-grossing film at 92%. The Odyssey stayed the Best Picture favorite at 44% for the 2027 Oscars, while its own box-office bands remained split between the 530-550m and 550-570m ranges.