What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Fed Rate-Hike Bets Crumble as Traders Price In a Hold
September's no-change probability jumped 14 points to 62% on the dataset's largest volume, while a quarter-point hike slid to 36% — even as Iran ceasefire markets pushed toward 90% and Minas Gerais swung hard toward Cleitinho Azevedo.
Traders spent Friday unwinding their rate-hike playbook: the Fed's September no-change probability jumped 14 points on the day to 62%, the steepest single-day swing of the cycle, while a quarter-point hike fell 12 points to 36% on $2.6 million in volume — the dataset's largest. A parallel retreat priced a 2026 hike down to 55%, off 8 points on the day. Geopolitics moved with equal conviction: markets pushed the odds of an effective US-Iran ceasefire to 90%, up 9 points on the day and 78 over the week, while a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 15 held at 57%, up 49 points over the week. In Brazil, Cleitinho Azevedo's odds of winning the Minas Gerais governorship rocketed to 64%, up 48 points on the day, as rivals Mateus Simões and Flávio Roscoe both slid double digits.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
8.5%→57%7d
$204,778 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 140m and 150m?
27%→80%24h
$12,197 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
78%→23%7d
$7,951 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
72%→23%24h
$19,361 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
15%→64%24h
$17,865 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Diogo Dalot attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
63%→18%24h
$12,291 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran ceasefire complex firmed across the board: an effective ceasefire by July 31 climbed to 90% (+9 on the day, +78 on the week), and the blockade's end by September 30 rose to 88% (+4/+25) after the August 15 marker held at 57% (+49 on the week). Ceasefire continuation through August 31 rose to 82% (+4/+40), and a 60-day negotiation extension held near 72%, up 32 points on the week, while Iranian airspace closure odds by September 30 fell to 18% (-9 on the day). Alibaba remained the favorite for best Chinese AI company, at 92%.
Minas Gerais reshuffled dramatically: Cleitinho Azevedo surged to 64% to win the governorship, up 48 points on the day, as Mateus Simões (9%, -11) and Flávio Roscoe (6%, -10) both collapsed. On the Fed, traders swung toward patience — a September hold rose to 62% (+14 on the day) while a hike fell to 36% (-12) on $2.6 million traded, the dataset's largest volume. Hungary's Botond Fülöp slid to 14% (-18) as András Baka emerged the favorite at 85%, and Max Miller's odds of exiting the OH-07 race by August 30 eased to 38% (-16).
Away from the September meeting, broader rate-hike bets also retreated: an October hike fell to 48% (-9 on the day) and a 2026 hike to 55% (-8), both extending a weekly decline. Elsewhere, Anthropic's IPO odds by October 31 rose to 62% (+17 on the day), STRC's path to $100 by year-end firmed to 64% (+8), and gold's run to $5,000 by December held at 45% (+3). NVIDIA remained the runaway favorite for largest company at 88%.
Model-release markets converged toward their deadlines rather than delivering news: OpenAI's Astra by August 31 dropped to 23% (-48 on the day) as traders shifted weight to a September 15 window, while Google's next Gemini Pro by August 21 — now past its window — fell to 23% (-26). Anthropic held its post as trader favorite for best AI model at month's end, 92%.
Rodri's move to Barcelona is effectively priced as done, holding at 90% after an 89-point run over the week. Guesses about Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding guest list swung sharply as Saturday's resolution nears — Edu Aguirre led at 52% while Diogo Dalot's odds nearly halved to 18% (-44 on the day). Jannik Sinner remains the clear US Open favorite at 54%, and the Dodgers lead a wide-open World Series field at 40%.
Real Madrid40%▼ 2 24hBarcelona54%▲ 2 7dAtlético Madrid3.6%▼ 1 7d
Culture
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' dominates the box-office markets as its second-weekend window closes: the $140-150m band jumped to 80% (+52 on the day) while $150-160m collapsed to 12%, a shift that tracks the approaching resolution more than fresh data. The film also remains the heavy favorite for 2026's top grosser at 92%. On Netflix, 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' holds the top US slot at 94%.