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Will Rodri join Barcelona?
2%→
90%
7d
Markets slashed the odds of a near-term end to the Iranian blockade across every date on the board, even as confidence in the underlying US-Iran ceasefire stayed near multi-week highs. The reassessment came on the day's heaviest volume, over $1 million traded on the blockade question alone.
Traders spent Sunday retreating from bets that Washington declares an end to its Iranian blockade anytime soon: the August 15 contract fell to 28%, down 29 points on the day, while every earlier date — August 12 through 14 — slid in lockstep by 29 to 34 points, on more than a million dollars of volume. The broader US-Iran ceasefire held firmer, at 86% through July 31 and climbing toward 91% by month's end. In Minnesota, the Republican gubernatorial primary flipped outright: Lisa Demuth surged to 56%, up 29 points on the day, overtaking Mike Lindell, who collapsed to 43%, down 30, with voters deciding within two days. Hollywood traders, meanwhile, grew more confident 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' clears $900 million domestically, pricing it at 64%, up 18 points on the day and 26 on the week.
The blockade dominated volume: all four near-term end-dates fell in tandem, from 14% (August 12) to 28% (August 15), each down 29 to 34 points on the day on over a million dollars traded. Hopes for a Hormuz deal by August 15 nearly halved to 18% (-31 points), and odds the 60-day US-Iran negotiation window gets extended slid to 60% (-12 points). Confidence in the immediate ceasefire held near multi-week highs — 92% through August 15 — even as December's odds slipped to 44% (-6 points), and an August 8 Black Sea vessel-strike contract jumped to 90% (+47 points).
Minnesota's Republican primary flipped hands: Lisa Demuth jumped to 56% (+29 points on the day, +30 on the week), leapfrogging Mike Lindell's collapse to 43% (-30, -29), with voters deciding within 48 hours. In Ohio's 7th district, bets that Max Miller drops out by August 30 fell to 4% (-34 points) as that market's roughly 18-hour clock runs down. Fed watchers kept consolidating around a September hold, now 62% (+23 points on the week), while the Clarity Act's passage odds ticked up to 20% (+5 points on the day).
Anthropic's IPO timeline got pushed further out: the October 31 contract fell to 50% (-12 points on the day) even as the December 31 window stayed dominant at 72% (+3 points on the week), suggesting traders still expect a listing this year, just later than previously priced. NVIDIA's grip on 'largest company' ticked up to 90% (+13 points on the week), while zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 remained the base case at 85% (-3 points on the week).
GPT-6's expected arrival kept drifting rightward: the September 30 contract fell to 52% (-12 points on the day, -9 on the week) while December 31 held at 86% (-2 points on the day), the market's preferred landing zone. Anthropic's hold on 'best AI model' through August stayed commanding at 92%, even as it eased 3 points on the week, with OpenAI a distant second at 6% (+4 points on the week).
Rodri's transfer saga resolved emphatically: Barcelona odds rocketed to 90% (+88 points on the week) as Real Madrid's collapsed to 3% (-74 points). Guests for Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding reshuffled sharply as that market's deadline arrived, with Piers Morgan's attendance odds jumping to 23% (+12 points) and Edu Aguirre's falling to 28% (-24 points). The Dodgers remained MLB's favorite at 40% (+2 points on the week).
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' traders grew more bullish on a $900 million-plus domestic haul, pricing it at 64% (+18 points on the day, +26 on the week) as the $800-900 million band faded to 34% (-18 points on the day). MrBeast's latest video crossed into the 25-30 million view band at 85% (+48 points) as its day-one deadline arrived. Kai and Speed's Minecraft deadline bets stayed scattered, with August 17 the modal date at 18%.
Traders are more confident Spider-Man clears $900 million than that Washington clears the Strait of Hormuz — draw your own conclusions about which plot Hollywood resolves faster.
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