What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Ceasefire Hits 90% as Hormuz Side-Deal Collapses 35 Points
Traders now treat the US-Iran truce as nearly locked in, but confidence in the diplomatic scaffolding around it — a Hormuz shipping pact, a formal end to the blockade — is evaporating just as fast.
Markets now put the odds of an effective US-Iran ceasefire holding through July 31 at 90%, up 4 points on the day and 32 over the week, with the August 31 marker climbing to 94%. Yet confidence in a broader Hormuz Strait management pact went the other way: the by-August-15 contract fell 35 points in 24 hours to just 30%, and hopes of Washington declaring the blockade over by mid-August dropped to 14%, down 15 points on the day. Traders are effectively pricing a ceasefire that holds without the diplomatic scaffolding around it. Elsewhere, Rodri's move to Barcelona surged to 90% after an 85-point weekly swing, and MrBeast's latest upload firmed to 74% odds of landing 60-70 million first-week views, up 48 points over seven days. In Minnesota, Mike Lindell's primary hopes eroded to 34%, down 38 points over the week, as the vote nears.
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Science & Tech
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Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
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Geopolitics
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Politics & Elections
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
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Geopolitics
The ceasefire itself looks entrenched — 90% by July 31, 92% by August 14, 94% by August 31, each up double digits over the week — but the surrounding architecture is fraying. Iran-Oman Hormuz management odds cratered 35 points to 30% for August 15, and blockade-end bets slid to 14%, down 15 on the day. A 60-day negotiation extension fell to 32%, down 27 points. Houthi shipping strikes remain priced as tail risk, under 7% across every date.
Minnesota's Republican primary, resolving within a day, has traders favoring Lisa Demuth at 61% over Mike Lindell's fading 34%, down 38 points on the week. South Carolina's special Senate primary tightened as Ralph Norman climbed 8 points to 32% against Darline Graham Nordone's slipping 58%. The Fed's September call stayed anchored at 64% for no change, while 2028 Republican nomination markets still favor J.D. Vance at 44% over Marco Rubio's 23%.
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Economy & Crypto
NVIDIA holds an 88% lock on largest-company honors through August, while gold traders lean toward a run past $5,000 by year-end at 45%, up 24 points over the week. July's US inflation print is a near coin-flip between 3.3% (40%, +8 on the day) and 3.4% (38%), and Anthropic's IPO odds by December 31 firmed to 72%. Crypto FDV contracts drifted lower across the board.
With its own deadline days out, the next Gemini Pro model's odds ticked up to 14% for August 14, even as the market has fallen 57 points over the week as traders price in a likely miss. Google's Gemini 4.0 fared no better at 12% for September 30. Anthropic still commands the 'best model' market outright at 92%.
Rodri's move to Barcelona is now considered all but confirmed at 90%, an 85-point weekly swing that has gutted Manchester City's hopes to 8%. In League of Legends, LYON surged 76 points in a day to 84% favorite for the tournament's shortest game. On tour, Sinner remains the US Open favorite at 50%, and Arsenal leads 2027 Premier League title markets at 40%.
MrBeast's latest upload firmed to 74% odds of clearing 60-70 million first-week views, up 48 points over the week. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' held its domestic-gross favorite at 58% for $900 million-plus, while Kai and Speed's Minecraft marathon markets swung hard intraday, with the August 20 finish line dropping 10 points to 50%.