What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Anthropic IPO Bets Surge as Markets Price an October Listing
Prediction markets pushed October-2026 Anthropic IPO odds to 62%, up 18 points on the day, while a swelling Bank of Japan rate-hike bet and a Rodri transfer that's now nearly certain rounded out a day of decisive repricing across sports and economics.
Traders spent Tuesday repricing conviction rather than chasing deadlines. Anthropic's IPO odds by October 31 jumped to 62%, up 18 points on the day and 26 on the week, with the December 31 contract now at 82% — a market increasingly confident the AI lab goes public within the year. In Tokyo, bets on a September Bank of Japan rate hike rose to 60%, up 18 points on the day, at the expense of the no-change camp, which fell 19 points to 38%. On the pitch, Rodri's move to Barcelona firmed to 88%, capping a 79-point swing over the week that has all but closed the door on a Real Madrid return, now priced at just 2%. And in the attention economy, MrBeast's newest video re-sorted itself into the 70-80 million view bracket at 90%, up 65 points on the day, as the 60-70 million bucket collapsed from 74% to 4%. Meanwhile, the Iran ceasefire held firm at 94%.
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
90%→6%7d
$17,224 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Rodri join Barcelona?
9.1%→88%7d
$10,458 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
74%→3.8%24h
$16,197 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
20%→72%7d
$36,715 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
52%→94%7d
$344,414 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
45%→9.5%7d
$306,588 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
64%→26%7d
$44,022 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
90%→62%7d
$54,404 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The Iran ceasefire held firm at 94% for the July 31 marker and climbed to 96% for August 31, even as traders cut odds of Washington ending the Iranian blockade by August 15 to just 10% (-4 points) — likely the looming deadline talking more than diplomacy. Elsewhere, a Yabloko ban from 2026 Russian elections jumped to 96%, up 31 points on the day, while odds of a Kyiv strike by the now-past August 10 deadline collapsed to 6%.
August 1532%▲ 2 24hAugust 3156%▼ 8 24hSeptember 3068%
Politics & Elections
With ballots closing, Minnesota's Republican primary crowned Lisa Demuth at 72% (+10 points) and South Carolina's Senate primary put Darline Graham Nordone at 62% ahead of its count — both markets converging as their deadlines arrive rather than on fresh information. More telling: Fed September odds tilted away from inaction, with 'no change' at 56% (-8 points on the day) ceding ground to a 25 bps increase, now priced at 40%, up 6 points.
Anthropic's IPO odds by October 31 rose to 62% (+18 points on the day, +26 on the week), with the December contract now at 82% — a decisive re-rating of listing timelines. The Bank of Japan's September hike odds jumped to 60% (+18 points), reversing prior conviction in a hold, which fell to 38%. NVIDIA's grip on 'largest company' status tightened to 92% (+4 points).
The next Gemini Pro model's odds of an August 14 release fell to just 6%, down 8 points on the day and 84 over the week — the deadline arriving with the market having already priced in delay. Anthropic still commands 'best AI model' honors at 94%, while Grok 4.6's odds of an August 14 release sit at 84%, rising to 92% for the following week.
Rodri's transfer to Barcelona firmed to 88%, closing out a 79-point weekly swing that has erased Real Madrid's odds to just 2%. On the tennis side, Jannik Sinner holds a commanding 52% to win the US Open, while Bruno Fernandes extended his lead for PFA Players' Player of the Year to 78% (+4 points on the day).
MrBeast's latest video reshuffled view-count expectations overnight, with the 70-80 million bracket surging to 90% (+65 points) as the 60-70 million bucket cratered to 4% (-70 points) — a swing that dwarfs anything else in the dataset. Meanwhile Kai and Speed's Minecraft marathon death count re-sorted toward the 50-69 range (30%, +17 points), and 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' held a 57% lean toward a $900 million-plus domestic haul.