Politics & Elections
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
96%→
9.8%
24h
A week ago traders gave the blockade's end 77% odds by August 15; that's collapsed to 12%, even as October 31 confidence barely moved, down just 18 points to 72%. The market isn't losing faith in a resolution — it's rescheduling one.
A week ago, prediction markets gave 77% odds that Washington would declare the Iranian blockade over by August 15; that has collapsed to 12% (+2 points on the day, -65 over the week), while confidence in later dates erodes far more gently — an October 31 resolution still holds at 72%, down just 18 points over the same span. The pattern repeats across the diplomatic complex: the US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15 has fallen to 8% (-58 pts/7d), and a 60-day negotiation extension has faded to 26% (-43 pts/7d). Traders aren't abandoning the thesis so much as re-dating it. Elsewhere, sentiment swung hard in other arenas: Rodri's move to Barcelona firmed to 83%, up 77 points over the week despite a 5-point wobble on the day, and MrBeast's latest upload is now given 90% odds of landing 70-80 million first-week views, up 83 points in seven days as early numbers rolled in.
The Iran blockade timeline keeps sliding later: an August 15 resolution has crashed to 12% (-65 pts/7d) while October 31 still holds at 72%, down just 18 points over the week, and the parallel US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15 fell to 8% (-58 pts/7d). Yet the Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement tells a firmer story — 78% by September 30, up 10 points on the day. Elsewhere, Venezuela's odds of recognizing Israel by year-end jumped to 67%, up 50 points overnight and 54 over the week, the sharpest reversal in the recognition basket.
Tuesday's primaries did what deadlines do: Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary snapped to David Crowley at 90% (+86 pts/24h) as Francesca Hong collapsed to 10%, with Crowley sweeping Waukesha County 95% to Hong's 4%. Minnesota's 5th District GOP race settled on John Nagel at 96% (+75 pts/24h), and South Carolina's Republican Senate special primary now favors Darline Graham Nordone at 73% (+32 pts/24h) over Ralph Norman's 28%. Off the ballot, odds that New Zealand's Christopher Luxon exits by September 30 fell to 6%, down 48 points on the day.
Anthropic's IPO odds keep climbing: a December 31 listing now prices at 82% (+17 pts/7d) and an October 31 listing at 64% (+29 pts/7d), while bets on a $1.5 trillion valuation by year-end rose to 76%, up 8 points overnight. July's inflation prints, now resolved, split narrowly toward a 3.4% annual read (40%) and a monthly gain of at least 0.1% (68%, +6 pts/24h). NVIDIA's grip on 'largest company' by end of August tightened to 92%, up 9 points over the week.
Grok 4.6's release window snapped forward within a single session: bets on an August 12 launch collapsed to 21% (-40 pts/24h) while August 21 firmed to 94% (+3 pts/24h), a sharp reversal of yesterday's near-term optimism. SSI's public model timeline shifted too — an October 31 release fell to 40% (-24 pts/24h) as traders crowded into September 30 instead, now 30% (+10 pts/24h). Anthropic remains the runaway favorite for best model of the month, at 94%, with Google and OpenAI both stuck in single digits.
Rodri's move to Barcelona firmed to 83%, up 77 points over the week even after a 5-point Tuesday dip, all but closing the book on a Real Madrid switch, now down to 2% (-76 pts/7d). Guessing games around Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding guest list swung hard: Marcelo fell to 19% (-7 pts/24h, -41 pts/7d) and Joao Felix to 6% (-17 pts/24h). At the ATP 1000 in Montreal, Rafael Jodar surged to favorite at 40% (+17 pts/24h), edging out Ben Shelton's 34%. Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or odds ticked up to 59%, extending a six-point weekly gain.
MrBeast's latest upload is now priced at 90% odds of landing 70-80 million week-one views, up a striking 83 points over the week as early numbers rolled in. The Kai and Speed Minecraft marathon keeps dragging: odds it wraps by August 17 rose to 30% (+13 pts/24h), while a same-day finish by August 14 held at just 8%. In-game death counts are converging on the 50-69 range, now 41% (+11 pts/24h). 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' firmed toward a $900M+ domestic haul, now 62% (+6 pts/24h), versus 36% for the $800-900M band.
Democracy delivered its verdicts on schedule Tuesday; the Strait of Hormuz, less so.
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