What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Warm to a Venezuela-Israel Thaw as Grok's Ambitions Cool
Traders lifted Venezuela's odds of recognizing Israel to 79% overnight, even as they slashed expectations for xAI's next Grok model and the Fed's September path firmed toward standing pat.
Venezuela's odds of recognizing Israel by December climbed to 79%, up 12 points on the day and 66 over the week — the clearest sustained geopolitical swing in today's data. Traders turned considerably colder on xAI: the odds the next Grok model debuts above a 1450 Arena score collapsed to 4%, down 82 points in a single session, as money piled into the sub-1440 outcome at 98%. The Federal Reserve's September path firmed alongside it, with 'no change' now favored at 66%, up 6 points on the day and 12 over the week, while a 25-basis-point hike slipped to 32%, down 4. Elsewhere, the Iran blockade-end market kept sliding toward its August 15 deadline, now just 4% likely — the calendar closing in more than a fresh signal — while Wisconsin's primary math settled the Crowley margin at 92% as results rolled in.
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14?
4.2%→98%24h
$45,445 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
8.4%→93%7d
$15,800 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
88%→6%7d
$10,170 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
64%→4.5%7d
$249,636 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?
86%→4%24h
$7,567 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?
20%→92%24h
$23,629 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
14%→79%7d
$56,790 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
87%→14%7d
$15,285 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Venezuela's Israel-recognition odds surged to 79% (+12 points on the day, +66 over the week), the section's standout move and one with real time left on the clock. Everything else tracked expiring deadlines: the Iran blockade-end market fell to 4% for August 15 (-7/24h, -59/7d) while longer-dated contracts held firmer, the Oman-Hormuz agreement eased to 14% (-8/24h, -74/7d), and the 60-day US-Iran negotiation extension slipped to 24% (-2/24h, -52/7d). Houthi shipping-attack odds for August 22 jumped to 48% (+42/24h).
Wisconsin's Democratic primary margin market snapped to 92% for a Crowley win of 0.4-0.6%, up 72 points as results rolled in — a deadline resolving, not new information. Wyoming's Republican primary swung hard too, with Brent Bien surging to 51% (+48/24h, +51/7d). Traders trimmed odds that Russell Vought exits the Trump administration to 18% (-28/24h), while Lee Zeldin (26%, +7/24h) and Susie Wiles (26%, -6/24h) remain favored to leave. The Fed's September call firmed toward inaction, with no-change odds at 66% (+6/24h, +12/7d).
Anthropic's IPO-by-December odds held at 80% (-2/24h, +14/7d), with the October 31 window at 62% (-2/24h, +23/7d). Its valuation markets stayed buoyant: odds of topping $1.5T rose to 78% (+2/24h, +12/7d) and $1.25T to 93% (+2/24h, +9/7d). Fed rate-hike odds for September eased to 31% (-6/24h, -14/7d), and traders still assign 86% odds of zero rate cuts in 2026 (-2/7d). NVIDIA remains the largest company at 96% (+3/24h, +9/7d).
The day's sharpest tech reversal: odds the next Grok model debuts at 1450+ on Text Arena cratered to 4% (-82/24h, -62/7d), with traders crowding into the 1440+ floor at 98% (+4/24h, +30/7d). Anthropic kept its grip on 'best model' markets, favored at 94% for August (-1/24h) and 84% for September (+4/24h). GPT-6's September 30 release odds held at 56% (-8/7d), while the next Gemini Pro's August 31 release ticked up to 45% (+5/24h, -42/7d).
Cristiano Ronaldo's guest list kept narrowing: Edu Aguirre's attendance odds fell to 6% (-24/24h, -82/7d), with the whole field losing ground as the wedding nears. Ben Shelton surged to 66% favorite at the Montreal 1000 (+32/24h, +55/7d) over Brandon Nakashima's 33% (+22/24h, +30/7d). Harry Kane held the Ballon d'Or favorite spot at 59% (+4/7d) ahead of Lamine Yamal's 17% (-4/7d). Team Vitality edged up to 28% for the EWC CS2 title (+3/24h).
Kai and Speed's Minecraft marathon markets swung hard toward completion — 98% by August 14, up 94 points — the clock doing the work, not new information. MrBeast's latest video locked into the 70-80M view-week-one range at 93% (+4/24h, +85/7d). 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' held favorite for 2026's top domestic grosser at 92%, with its $900M+ box-office threshold still favored at 62% despite a 20-point weekly pullback.