What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Harden Around a Fed Pause, Eyeing Calm Through December
Traders push the odds of no Fed move in September to 72%, up 24 points on the week, while an overnight reversal hands Google the lead over Alibaba as AI's second-best lab.
The week's clearest signal came from the world's most-traded market: a Fed pause in September, now priced at 72%, up 6 points on the day and 24 on the week, with December's no-change odds following in lockstep to 68%. Conviction is building, not cresting at a deadline — both meetings remain weeks away. In AI, traders staged an overnight reversal, crowning Google the second-best lab at 48% (+41 points) and dropping Alibaba to 42% (-48), a near-total swap of fortunes in a single session. Anthropic's ascent continued elsewhere: markets now give 62% odds its valuation clears $2 trillion by year-end, up 18 points, while its odds of running the largest 2026 IPO climbed to 26% as SpaceX's slid to 70%. Geopolitics offered the day's sharpest reversal: Venezuela's odds of recognizing Israel by December collapsed to 12%, down 66 points, unwinding much of the summer's optimism.
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
6.6%→98%7d
$10,152 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
79%→12%24h
$176,529 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
85%→5.5%7d
$11,287 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
58%→1.7%7d
$153,537 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
76%→36%7d
$51,658 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
72%→26%7d
$13,981 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
91%→42%24h
$6,955 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
48%→72%7d
$493,025 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Venezuela's path to recognizing Israel by December 31 crumbled to 12%, a 66-point one-day collapse that erases most of the summer's optimism, even as Saudi Arabia (11%) and North Korea (6%) ticked up slightly. Elsewhere, the Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement (6% for August 15) and a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade (2%) both cratered toward zero — moves that read less as news than as tomorrow's deadline arriving; traders still give September 30 versions of both wagers far better odds.
No Meeting by September 3062%▲ 6 24hSwitzerland14%▼ 2 24hPakistan12%▼ 1 24hOman3.3%▼ 2 24h
Politics & Elections
The Fed dominates the board: no-change odds for September rose to 72% (+6 on the day, +24 on the week), with December's no-change probability climbing in parallel to 68% (+10/+10). Down-ballot, South Carolina's special Senate primary hardened toward Darlene Graham Nordone (83%, +6) and Wyoming's GOP governor race toward Eric Barlow (79%), while traders remain near-certain (92-93%) Trump insults someone publicly on most days this month.
Anthropic's markets moved almost uniformly higher: 62% odds of a $2 trillion valuation by year-end (+18), 68% for $1.75 trillion (+14), and 26% odds of running the year's largest IPO (+15), as SpaceX's share of that race slipped to 70% (-16). Apple's hold on second-largest-company status firmed to 86% (+8), while traders trimmed Alphabet's odds to 12% (-8).
Google's second-best-AI-lab odds vaulted to 48% (+41 points in a day) as Alibaba's cratered to 42% (-48) — a near-complete swap of rank in a single session, with weeks still to run before the August 31 verdict. Anthropic still commands the top spot outright at 96% for best model. A Gemini Pro release by August 31 slid to 26% (-19) after the earlier August 21 deadline passed without one, dragging odds down with it.
Team Vitality strengthened its grip on the EWC 2026 CS2 title, now favored at 32% (+4) against a resurgent FaZe Clan (12%, +8) in the tournament's highest-volume market ($551k traded). Barcelona remains the strong favorite for Rodri's transfer at 81%, though that's down 6 points on the day as Manchester City's odds crept up to 16%. Harry Kane still leads the Ballon d'Or field at 59%.
Boston Red Sox6%▼ 5 7dLos Angeles Dodgers36%▼ 1 24hTampa Bay Rays8.1%▲ 1 24hHouston Astros3%▲ 1 24h
Culture
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's markets flipped hard: odds it clears $900m domestic by August 31 fell to 36% (-26), with the $800-900m bracket now favored at 64% (+28) — a genuine repricing with two weeks still on the clock. MrBeast's latest video, meanwhile, is all but certified for the 70-80M week-one bracket at 98%, though that's mostly the calendar closing in, with the video's fate due in about two days.