What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Give Up on Iran Talks, Bet on a Long Freeze
Traders have slashed the odds of a swift end to the Iranian blockade and now see no qualifying US-Iran meeting before October as more likely than not, even as a Wisconsin surge and a tightening IPO race show plenty of movement elsewhere.
Diplomacy with Iran has stalled in traders' eyes: the odds of Washington ending its blockade by August 22 collapsed to 10%, down 62 points over the week, while the chance of a further 60-day negotiation extension sank to 13%, down 58 points. Markets now assign 70% odds — up 43 points over seven days — to no qualifying US-Iran meeting before September 30. Domestically, Wisconsin's governor race flipped hard: Democrat David Crowley's implied odds jumped 36 points over the week to 78%, while Republican Tom Tiffany slid to 24%, down 36 points over the same span. In the IPO arena, Anthropic is closing on SpaceX for 2026's biggest listing — its odds up 12 points on the day to 38% — as SpaceX fell 8 points to 62%.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
72%→10%7d
$137,139 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
72%→13%7d
$185,869 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
27%→70%7d
$35,514 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
47%→86%7d
$81,496 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
60%→24%7d
$72,212 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship?
50%→7.8%7d
$5,427 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
45%→79%7d
$6,107 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
92%→62%7d
$25,933 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Every Iran-related contract retreated this week. The odds of the blockade ending by August 22 fell to just 10%, down 62 points over seven days; the 60-day negotiation extension market slid to 13%, down 58 points over the same span. Traders now assign 70% odds (+43 points/7d) to no qualifying US-Iran meeting before September 30, and Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by year-end sits at 44%, down 15 points over the week — diplomacy stalling on every measurable front.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?44%▼ 1 24h
Politics & Elections
Wisconsin's governor race was the week's biggest political mover: Democrat David Crowley's odds rocketed 36 points to 78%, while Republican Tom Tiffany fell to 24%. That shift echoes a broader tilt toward Democrats in the generic Senate market, now 52% (+7 points/7d). In South Carolina, Darline Graham Nordone's primary lead widened to 86% as the vote nears. The Fed's September path stayed calm — no change priced at 74%, up 2 points on the day — while Brazil's Chamber of Deputies race tightened as UPB gained 9 points on the day to 30%.
The IPO race narrowed sharply: Anthropic's odds of the largest 2026 listing rose 12 points on the day to 38%, while SpaceX slipped 8 points to 62%. That mirrors rising confidence in Anthropic's valuation — traders put 67% odds (+5 points/24h) on the company topping $2.0T by year-end. Elsewhere, the odds of any 2026 Fed rate hike eased to 44%, down 7 points on the day, and NVIDIA's grip on 'largest company' held firm at 97%.
OpenAI's Astra model dropped hard across every Arena-score threshold — the 1490+ bracket fell 31 points on the day to 32% — as traders converge on a lower debut score. The Doge-1 lunar mission's target year has effectively shifted to 2027, now 68% (+16 points/7d), with a 2026 launch down to just 3%. Anthropic's hold on 'best AI model' stayed commanding at 96%, and a Tesla-SpaceX merger by 2027 crept up to 55%, the only merger horizon markets take half-seriously.
With the FedEx St. Jude Championship's final round approaching its close, Scottie Scheffler's title odds jumped 52 points on the day to 64% as the clock narrowed the field against Hovland (8%) and Åberg (6%). Transfer markets moved independently: Chelsea's odds of landing Enzo Fernández climbed 25 points to 66%, and Barcelona's hold on Rodri firmed to 84%. In esports, Team Falcons overtook Vitality for the EWC CS2 favorite spot (26% vs 22%), and Team Vision extended its Dota 2 lead to 38%.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's box-office markets swung bearish, with sub-900m domestic gross odds up 15 points on the day to 79%, echoed by a parallel 800-900m contract at 78% (+14 points/24h). Ahead of this weekend's box-office report, due in about two days, "The End of Oak Street" traders piled into the $20-23m opening bracket, now 60%. Bond speculation firmed around Jack Lowden, up 11 points to 34%, while Bad Bunny's hold on Spotify's top-artist spot ticked up to 78%.