What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets See Escalation Rising as Diplomacy Craters From Tehran to Kyiv
Traders lifted NATO's odds of downing a second Russian drone to 93%, up 30 points in a day. Diplomatic markets moved the opposite way, with Iran-Oman talks and any Russia-Ukraine meeting both sliding toward one in five.
Traders are pricing in more war, not less. NATO's odds of downing a second Russian drone by August 31 jumped to 93%, up 30 points on the day and 63 over the week, even as diplomatic channels iced over elsewhere: the Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement fell to 20%, down 14 points on the day and 43 on the week, and any Russia-Ukraine meeting by September 30 slid to 25%, down 10 and 36 points respectively. Elsewhere, money kept rotating out of legacy tech: Anthropic's odds of the largest 2026 IPO market cap rose to 41%, up 5 points on the day and 31 on the week, narrowing SpaceX's lead to 60%. In Wyoming's at-large primary, Chuck Gray's nomination odds climbed to 69%, up 12 points on the day, as rival Steve Friess slid 13 points to 26% with the vote two days out.
Will "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
5%→94%24h
$21,016 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
30%→93%7d
$28,797 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
14%→79%7d
$6,155 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
43%→87%7d
$53,637 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
64%→20%7d
$17,721 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
62%→25%7d
$6,569 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
9.7%→41%7d
$13,587 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
37%→69%7d
$7,734 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
NATO's drone-intercept market rocketed to 93%, up 30 points on the day and 63 on the week, the sharpest escalation signal in the data. Diplomacy fared worse: Iran-Oman's Hormuz agreement odds nearly halved to 20% over the week, the US-Iran blockade-end market drifted to 14% for August 31, and traders reshuffled who might show up to any US-Iran talks — Marco Rubio surged 22 points to 42% while Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf fell 23 points to 46%.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?5.5%▼ 8 24h
Politics & Elections
Wyoming's at-large primary tightened into a two-way race: Chuck Gray rose to 69% (+12 on the day, +32 on the week) as Steve Friess collapsed to 26% (-13, -22). South Carolina's Republican Senate primary, already at its deadline, settled further toward Darline Graham Nordone at 87%. Florida's down-ballot races stayed volatile — FL-02 Democrats swung toward Yen Bailey (55%, +12 on the day) while FL-09 Republicans remain a genuine four-way scramble.
Eric Barlow81%▲ 2 24hMegan Degenfelder16%▼ 5 24hBrent Bien2.9%▲ 2 24h
Economy & Crypto
Anthropic's odds of running the largest 2026 IPO rose to 41%, up 5 points on the day and 31 on the week, cutting into SpaceX's lead, now 60% (-5, -30). Traders also lifted the odds Anthropic clears a $1.5T valuation by December to 91% (+28 on the week) and a $3T valuation to 36% (+22 on the week). NVIDIA's grip on 'largest company' held firm at 92% for end-September and 97% for end-August.
Anthropic's lead in best-AI-model markets held steady across every horizon: 96% for end of August, 88% for end of September (+8 on the week), and 68% by year-end. xAI edged up to 11% (+6 on the week) for the year-end crown, the only meaningful challenger movement in an otherwise settled field.
Rodri's move to Barcelona firmed to 98%, up 17 points on the day. Esports markets shifted hardest: Dota's International title odds swung toward TEAM VISION at 40% despite a 6-point daily dip, while Nigma Galaxy gained 6 points on the week to 8%. CS2's Team Falcons slid 9 points to 18% as the EWC field stayed wide open.
Deadline effects dominated culture: 'Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes' vaulted to 94% (+88 points) as the Netflix weekly ranking neared its close, and 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day's' opening-weekend strike prices snapped toward their settled bands (83% and 91%) as the window shut. Away from the deadline crush, 'The Odyssey's' domestic gross odds for the 550-570m band held near 79%, up 65 points over the week.