What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Markets Price Iran-Arab Strike at 85% as Likud Crowns Eli Cohen
Traders priced a confrontation between Iran and an Arab neighbor at 85% overnight while Israel's ruling party handed its primary to Eli Cohen in a near-total landslide. Peace-talk odds cooled in tandem, and NATO's drone-intercept tally crept toward certainty.
Traders piled into a single question overnight: will Iran strike an Arab neighbor before the month is out? The market moved from a coin-flip to near-certainty, now pricing 85%, up 80 points on the day and 77 on the week, on $40,793 in trades. The shift arrived alongside a diplomatic reversal — bettors trimmed odds that Steve Witkoff (48%, -14 points) or Marco Rubio (16%, -26 points) attend any US-Iran peace talks by year's end, and pushed NATO's odds of downing a second Russian drone by August 31 to 97%, up 69 points on the week. In Israeli politics, the Likud primary broke decisively: Eli Cohen surged to 97% (+96 points) as Amir Ohana collapsed to 2% (-80 points), a near-total reversal in a single day. Elsewhere, Anthropic's shot at a $2.5 trillion valuation by December firmed to 50% (+27 points on the week), and Korean esports saw DN SOOPers jump to 51% (+19 points) in the KeSPA Cup final.
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
5.2%→85%24h
$40,793 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?
82%→2.1%24h
$9,371 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
28%→97%7d
$26,865 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
41%→90%7d
$65,502 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
36%→90%7d
$14,919 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
28%→74%7d
$19,499 traded · 24h
Sports
Will DN SOOPers Win KeSPA Cup 2026?
2.6%→51%7d
$8,459 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
24%→50%7d
$10,616 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The defining move: odds that Iran strikes an Arab country by August 17 rocketed to 85%, up 80 points in a day, even as bets on any US-Iran peace talks cooled — Witkoff to 48% (-14) and Rubio to 16% (-26). Israel's Likud primary resolved almost entirely: Eli Cohen at 97% (+96), Amir Ohana crushed to 2% (-80). NATO's odds of a second downed Russian drone by August 31 climbed to 97% (+69 on the week), and traders scattered on which Chinese firm exits the Pentagon's blacklist — BYD, Baidu, CATL and Tencent all fell double digits.
Four Republican primaries approach their deadlines: Darline Graham Nordone leads South Carolina's Senate race at 90% (+3), Catalina Lauf holds FL-19 at 90% (+7), and Chuck Gray leads WY-AL at 74% (+6), all resolving within about a day. FL-14 flipped hard as Mike Beltran surged to 72% (+30) past Kevin Steele's 24% (-32). Wisconsin's governor race stayed lopsided, with Democrat David Crowley at 78% (+38 on the week) over Republican Tom Tiffany.
Anthropic's path to a $2.5 trillion valuation by year-end firmed to 50%, up 27 points on the week, while the $1.75 trillion threshold reached 82%. Fed-hike odds for 2026 sat at 48%, little changed on the day but down 12 points on the week. NVIDIA's grip on largest-company status looked secure at 92% through September and 78% through December.
GPT-6's expected release window kept shifting: November 30 became the favored date at 60% (+5 on the day), while September 30 faded to 28% (-10). Anthropic held a near-lock on best AI model through August at 98% (+4 on the week), leaving OpenAI at just 2%.
DN SOOPers overtook Nongshim RedForce in the KeSPA Cup, surging to 51% (+19 on the day, +48 on the week). Chelsea's hold on Enzo Fernandez loosened to 55% (-23 on the week) as Manchester City rose to 42% (+28). Harry Kane held the Ballon d'Or lead at 62% (+5 on the week).
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's box-office markets stayed split — one contract puts a $900-920m finish at 42% (+6), another keeps $800-900m favored at 56%. The film held its lead as 2026's highest-grosser at 92%, with no consensus yet on James Bond's successor: Jack Lowden 24% (+17 on the week), No Bond chosen 25%.