What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Anthropic's Valuation Climbs as OpenAI's Astra Launch Keeps Slipping
Traders lift Anthropic's odds of a $1.75 trillion valuation to 83% while pushing back their timeline for OpenAI's Astra and GPT-6, even as the Fed's September hold gains conviction.
Two AI labs are trading places in the crowd's imagination. Markets now put Anthropic's odds of a $1.75 trillion valuation by December 31 at 83%, up 32 points over the past week, while OpenAI's timeline keeps receding: the chance Astra ships by September 15 fell 22 points on the day to 42%, and GPT-6 arriving by November 30 rose 6 points to 66% — a later date gaining ground as earlier ones fade. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve's September meeting is drifting toward anticlimax, with 'no change' probability up 11 points on the week to 72%. On court, Jannik Sinner's US Open title odds slid 11 points on the day to 30% as Carlos Alcaraz gained 8 to 20%, while in the transfer market Julian Alvarez's stay at Atletico Madrid firmed to 84%, up 14 points overnight.
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
7%→81%7d
$32,536 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?
36%→97%24h
$27,397 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
52%→2.2%24h
$137,167 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
58%→23%7d
$19,272 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
36%→7.5%7d
$127,098 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
50%→83%7d
$17,687 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?
52%→30%7d
$55,020 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
59%→84%7d
$9,690 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-related contracts cooled across the board. The odds of a US-announced end to the Iranian blockade by August 31 fell 4 points on the day to 8%, and the October 31 version eased 2 points to 52%. The Iran-Oman Hormuz management agreement by August 31 dropped 6 points on the day and 36 over the week to 23%. Meanwhile traders still assign an 81% chance that Iran targets an Arab country, a figure roughly flat on the day despite a turbulent 74-point swing over the past week.
No Meeting by September 3075%▲ 4 24hPakistan5%▼ 3 24hSwitzerland10%▼ 5 7d
Politics & Elections
The Federal Reserve's September decision moved toward consensus: 'no change' probability climbed 11 points over the week to 72%, against 28% for a quarter-point hike. Florida's primary contracts, by contrast, simply caught up with the calendar as results were tallied — Jared Moskowitz's win-by-25%-or-more odds jumped 61 points to 97% and James Fishback's under-10% vote-share contract collapsed 50 points to 2%, outcomes better read as settlement than surprise.
Anthropic's climb continued: markets now give 83% odds it reaches a $1.75 trillion valuation by December 31, up 32 points on the week, with the $2 trillion threshold up 30 points to 70%. Apple held a commanding 93% lead to remain the second-largest company by month's end, while NVIDIA's grip on the top spot eased slightly, down 3 points to 74% for its odds of still being largest by December.
OpenAI's Astra keeps missing its own moving target: the chance it ships by September 15 dropped 22 points on the day to 42%, and by August 31 fell 12 points to just 10%. GPT-6 timelines pushed later in sympathy — odds of an October 31 release rose 10 points to 57%, and November 30 gained 6 to 66%. Anthropic, meanwhile, is treated as a near-certainty to hold the best model title through August, at 99%.
Jannik Sinner's US Open favoritism cracked, sliding 11 points on the day and 21 over the week to 30%, with Carlos Alcaraz the beneficiary at 20%, up 8 points. In the transfer window, Julian Alvarez's odds of staying at Atletico Madrid jumped 14 points on the day to 84%. Cincinnati Open markets favor Taylor Fritz at 26%, up 10 points, edging out Alexander Zverev's 25%.
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' box-office markets flipped intraday: the odds of a $900 million-plus domestic total rose 9 points to 52%, while the $800-900 million band fell to 48%. A separate contract shows the same tension — sub-$900 million odds at 50%, down 8 points on the day, against 48% for the $900-920 million band, up 6 — leaving traders roughly split on which side of the line the film lands.