What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Ceasefire Odds Firm Up as Traders Price Wider Regional Strike Risk
Markets now give the US-Iran truce 96% odds of lasting to August 25, even as bets on an Iranian strike against an Arab neighbor climb toward month's end — a reminder that de-escalation and risk can price up together.
Prediction markets sent a mixed signal on Iran today: the US-Iran ceasefire's odds of holding through September 30 jumped 13 points to 70%, and through August 25 to 96%, even as traders raised the odds of an Iranian strike on an Arab country to 24% for August 30, up 15 points on the day. The blockade-ending question — the day's most heavily traded contract at $570,480 — stayed anchored near 6% for August, but climbs to 70% by December. Elsewhere, the AI industry's pecking order flipped: Google's odds of ranking as the second-best lab surged 32 points to 81%, while Alibaba collapsed 42 points to 3%. Politics brought its own swing, with Trump-Kim Jong Un meeting odds up 19 points to 38%. And in sports, Julian Alvarez's stay at Atletico Madrid firmed to 88%, up 4 points on the day and 22 on the week.
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
6.5%→91%7d
$14,639 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
91%→2.8%7d
$5,179 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
22%→88%7d
$5,630 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
50%→98%7d
$42,793 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
34%→5.5%7d
$210,831 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
62%→36%7d
$41,527 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
55%→24%7d
$5,081 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
66%→88%7d
$12,208 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Traders are growing more confident the US-Iran ceasefire holds, with survival odds firming across every horizon — 96% through August 25 (+3 points on the day) and 70% through September 30 (+13). The blockade-ending question, the single most heavily traded contract in today's data at $570,480, still gives only 6% odds by August 31, though traders assign 70% by December 31. Meanwhile, bets that Iran strikes an Arab country are climbing for dates with room to run, with the August 30 contract up 15 points on the day to 24%.
Trump's 2026 meeting dance is in flux: odds he sits down with Kim Jong Un jumped 19 points in a day to 38%, while a Delcy Rodríguez meeting cooled 12 points to 30%. The Fed's September call looks settled — traders assign 72% (+1) to no change and just 26% to a 25bp hike. Brazil's presidential race keeps Lula the favorite at 64%, with Flávio Bolsonaro climbing to 33% (+4 on the week).
Gold bulls added ground, with a $5,000 finish by December rising to 58% (+9 points on the day, +11 on the week). Anthropic's valuation ladder held largely steady at 66% odds of a $2 trillion mark by year-end, while its IPO odds by December 31 firmed to 89% (+4). STRC's push to $100 by September 30 rose 8 points to 36%, and the 2026 Fed rate-hike question sits at an exact coin flip, 50%.
The 'second-best AI lab' market flipped hard: Google surged 32 points in a single day to 81%, while Alibaba's odds cratered 42 points to just 3% — an 88-point collapse over the week. GPT-6's September 30 release odds continue to erode (24%, -4 on the day) as the calendar closes in, while OpenAI's Astra slipped further out, its September 15 odds down 6 points to 36%. Anthropic remains the field's runaway favorite for best model, at 98%.
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?72%
Sports
Julian Alvarez's stay at Atletico Madrid firmed to 88% (+4 on the day, +22 on the week), with a Barcelona move fading to 8%. In tennis, Jannik Sinner's US Open odds ticked up to 32% (+2), still well off the level he commanded a week ago. Arsenal extended its lead as 2027 Premier League favorite to 46% (+6 on the week), while Team Vision holds a 44% edge (+18) heading into The International.
Box-office markets are converging toward their August 31 settlement dates rather than reacting to fresh news: The Odyssey's $550-570m outcome sits at 88%, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day's odds swung toward the $800-900m band (61%, +14 on the day) and away from the $900m+ threshold (36%, -17). The next James Bond remains unsettled, with 'no Bond chosen' still the modal outcome at 28%.