What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Anthropic Closes In on SpaceX in Race for 2026's Biggest IPO
Traders now see Anthropic's IPO market cap edging past SpaceX's, a 22-point swing in a week, even as OpenAI's Astra model surges toward release and Iran-related risk markets stay elevated.
Anthropic's odds of claiming 2026's largest IPO market cap climbed to 48%, up 22 points over the week, while SpaceX's slid to 54%, down 17 points over the same span — a race that traders priced as a near-lock for SpaceX a week ago and now call essentially a coin flip. The move tracks a broader repricing of Anthropic's calendar: traders now put 83% odds on an IPO by October 31, up 10 points on the day and 12 on the week, with October itself favored at 68%, up 11 points on the day. Elsewhere in AI, OpenAI's Astra model jumped to 58% odds of a September 15 release, up 22 points in a single day. Geopolitical risk markets tell a more unsettled story: contracts on Iran targeting an Arab country sit at 85%, up 80 points over the week though down 6 on the day, even as traders cut odds of an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30 to 24%, down 26 points over the week, and a Hormuz management deal to just 9%, down 24.
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
4.5%→85%7d
$22,257 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
19%→70%7d
$7,422 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?
52%→97%7d
$7,756 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
50%→24%7d
$104,776 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
34%→9%7d
$34,725 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
26%→48%7d
$14,400 traded · 24h
Science & Tech
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?
36%→58%24h
$6,835 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 BMW Championship?
22%→3%24h
$27,898 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran risk markets remain elevated but jittery: odds that Iran targets an Arab country sit at 85%, up a full 80 points over the week though down 6 on the day, while traders keep trimming hopes for de-escalation — an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30 fell to 24% (-26 pts/7d), a Hormuz management pact slipped to 9% (-24 pts/7d), and normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by December sits at 30% (-16 pts/7d). Markets give 78% odds of no US-Iran talks before September 30.
No Meeting by September 3078%▲ 2 24hPakistan4.5%▼ 1 24hSwitzerland9.5%▼ 1 24hOman2.1%▼ 1 24h
Politics & Elections
South Carolina's Republican Senate primary tightened sharply, with Ralph Norman climbing to 30% (+10 pts/24h) as Darline Graham Nordone's lead narrowed to 71% (-9 pts/24h). The Clarity Act's odds of becoming law in 2026 rose to 28% (+6 pts/24h). Down-ballot, Michigan and Wisconsin both firmed further toward Democrats, with Abdul El-Sayed at 64% (+3 pts/24h) and David Crowley at 80% (+3 pts/24h).
Anthropic dominates the economy desk: traders give it 48% odds of the largest 2026 IPO market cap (+4 pts/24h, +22 pts/7d), closing on SpaceX's 54% (-3 pts/24h, -17 pts/7d), while odds it IPOs by October 31 reached 83% (+10 pts/24h). Its $1.75T valuation-by-year-end contract holds at 79%. Meanwhile Aligned Layer's FDV cleared $100M a day after launch at 97% odds (+9 pts/24h, +45 pts/7d), even as the $200M and $300M thresholds cooled sharply.
OpenAI's Astra model saw its sharpest repricing of the week: 58% odds of a September 15 release, up 22 points on the day and 18 on the week, with the September 30 threshold now at 84%. GPT-6 by September 30 also firmed to 36% (+12 pts/24h). Anthropic, meanwhile, remains the market's runaway pick for best model through August (98%) and September (90%).
At the BMW Championship, resolving within two days, Scottie Scheffler's title odds collapsed to 3% (-19 pts/24h) as Rory McIlroy surged to 18% (+12 pts/24h) — the field reshuffling as the tournament nears its close. Elsewhere, Julian Alvarez's move to Atletico Madrid cooled to 74% (-14 pts/24h) as Arsenal and Barcelona each climbed to 13%. In tennis, Jannik Sinner (36%, +3 pts/24h) edges Carlos Alcaraz (26%, +9 pts/24h) for the US Open.
'The Odyssey' delivered the week's wildest culture swing: odds it lands in the $550-570m domestic gross band fell 19 points on the day to 70%, even after climbing 50 points over the week, as the $570m-plus tier jumped 25 points on the day to 31% — traders scrambling to reprice as the film outperforms. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' held steadier, with its $800-900m band at 66% (+6 pts/24h).