What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Gold Eyes $5,000 as Traders Price In a Fed Hike, Not a Cut
Gold's odds of topping $5,000 by year's end climbed to 64%, up 8 points on the day and 19 over the week, rising in step with the odds of a 2026 rate hike, now 56% and up 7 points since yesterday.
Traders are quietly rewriting the inflation script. Gold's odds of hitting $5,000 by December rose to 64%, up 8 points on the day and 19 over the week, moving in tandem with the probability of a 2026 Fed rate hike, now 56% (+7 points/24h, +12/7d) — even as the September Fed decision market still favors no change, at 68%. Crypto sentiment cooled sharply: the odds an upcoming token launch holds an extended FDV above $150M collapsed 33 points in a day to 41%. Esports delivered the day's single biggest swing — Team Spirit's odds of winning CS2's EWC 2026 rocketed 36 points to 48% — while on the tennis side, Carlos Alcaraz's US Open title odds climbed to 34% (+7/24h, +22/7d), tightening a field led by Zverev at 21%.
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 BMW Championship?
50%→2.3%7d
$32,255 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Team Spirit Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
12%→48%24h
$37,143 traded · 24h
Economy & Crypto
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
74%→41%24h
$32,881 traded · 24h
Culture
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?
59%→84%24h
$24,752 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
12%→34%7d
$69,688 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
32%→6.5%7d
$13,795 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?
17%→42%7d
$11,843 traded · 24h
Politics & Elections
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
86%→68%7d
$141,339 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Markets pushed the Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement down to 6% (-2/24h, -25/7d) as its August 31 deadline nears, with the September 30 fallback also cooling to 36%. A broader end-of-blockade market still leans toward December 31 (67%). Traders now see just 30% odds of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by December, down 15 points on the week. In AI, Alibaba remains the favorite for best Chinese model at 89%, though it slipped 7 points as Moonshot edged up to 6%.
Scott Jennings has become traders' clear pick for the next White House Press Secretary, rising to 42% (+3/24h, +25/7d) as rivals faded — Ari Fleischer down to 2%. In South Carolina's now-past-deadline primary, Darline Graham Nordone's edge over Ralph Norman narrowed to 68-32. On the Fed, markets still favor no September move (68%), though a 25bp hike gained 3 points to 30%.
Gold's climb toward $5,000 (64%, +8/24h, +19/7d) is tracking rising conviction that 2026 brings a rate hike, now 56% (+7/24h, +12/7d). Crypto turned more skeptical of frothy valuations: one launch's odds of an extended FDV above $150M cratered 33 points to 41%, even as a rival token's shot at $800M rose to 52% (+7pts). Expectations for the 'next Mythos-class model' slipped, with a September 30 release down 19 points to 58%.
Anthropic's grip on the model-quality crown looks unshaken: 99% favorite for August, 90% for September, 70% for the year, all with modest weekly gains. GPT-6's expected arrival is compressing toward the fourth quarter — a September 15 launch fell 14 points to just 12%, while November 30 firmed to 61% (+11/7d), the steadiest of the dated contracts.
The volume-weighted mover of the day: Team Spirit's odds at CS2's EWC 2026 rocketed 36 points to 48%, with FURIA close behind at 30% (+8pts). Carlos Alcaraz strengthened to 34% for the US Open (+7/24h, +22/7d) as Zverev rose to 21%. At the BMW Championship, Wyndham Clark surged 21 points to 32% as the tournament's final round nears — Scheffler's and McIlroy's fading odds (2%, 6%) reflect the closing clock more than the leaderboard.
With its opening just 30 hours out, 'Insidious: Out of the Further' saw its sub-$25M weekend odds jump 24 points to 84% — the deadline talking as much as the tracking. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' remains the market's runaway pick for 2026's top grosser at 92%, with its fourth-weekend take converging on the $35-38M band, now 54% (+21pts).