The Probable Times — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Today's automated edition — the numbers, straight from the markets. The crowd's biggest repricings: Will Team Spirit Win the CS2 EWC 2026? moved from 16% to 76% over the last 7d; Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? moved from 35% to 92% over the last 24h; Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 BMW Championship? moved from 25% to 75% over the last 7d; Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026? moved from 11% to 44% over the last 7d. Full section tables below.

Sports

Will Team Spirit Win the CS2 EWC 2026?

16%→ 76% 7d

$36,572 traded · 24h

Culture

Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?

35%→ 92% 24h

$11,421 traded · 24h

Sports

Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 BMW Championship?

25%→ 75% 7d

$13,449 traded · 24h

Sports

Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?

11%→ 44% 7d

$206,779 traded · 24h

Culture

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?

37%→ 75% 24h

$26,539 traded · 24h

Politics & Elections

Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?

84%→ 54% 7d

$8,127 traded · 24h

Economy & Crypto

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

73%→ 46% 7d

$15,007 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

64%→ 36% 7d

$5,256 traded · 24h

Geopolitics

Markets price: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — September 30 at 36% (-28 pts/7d); Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...? — September 30 at 31% (+18 pts/24h).

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? $36,890 · 24h

September 3036%▼ 28 7dAugust 317%▼ 27 7d

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...? $26,011 · 24h

September 3031%▲ 18 24hAugust 318.9%▲ 4 24hSeptember 158%▲ 2 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? $409,350 · 24h

August 313.2%▼ 15 7dSeptember 3036%▲ 9 24hSeptember 2129%▲ 10 24hOctober 3148%▲ 6 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? $88,189 · 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?32%▲ 2 24h

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? $54,682 · 24h

No meeting by December 3158%▲ 10 24hChina38%▼ 6 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? $478,918 · 24h

September 3070%▲ 7 24hSeptember 1579%▲ 6 24hAugust 3192%▲ 6 24hOctober 3160%▲ 4 24h

Politics & Elections

Markets price: Maranhão Governor Election Winner — Orleans Brandão at 44% (+22 pts/24h, +28 pts/7d); Berlin State Election Winner — Linke at 58% (+16 pts/24h, +20 pts/7d).

Maranhão Governor Election Winner $23,379 · 24h

Orleans Brandão44%▲ 22 24hEduardo Braide54%▼ 20 24h

Berlin State Election Winner $37,302 · 24h

Linke58%▲ 16 24hCDU26%▼ 6 24hGrüne3.9%▼ 5 24hAfD9.4%▼ 4 24h

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner $73,718 · 24h

Darline Graham Nordone65%▼ 3 24hRalph Norman35%▲ 4 24h

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 $1,355,819 · 24h

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%▲ 5 24hJames Talarico2.2%Josh Shapiro5%

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? $166,240 · 24h

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?24%▼ 1 24h

Next Prime Minister of Sweden $52,397 · 24h

Ulf Kristersson8.5%▼ 1 24hMagdalena Andersson90%▲ 1 24h

Economy & Crypto

Markets price: Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $150M at 46% (+4 pts/24h, -27 pts/7d); Anthropic IPO by __? — October 31, 2026 at 82% (+14 pts/7d).

Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? $21,509 · 24h

$150M46%▲ 4 24h$300M32%▲ 4 24h$2B4%▲ 1 24h$800M7.5%▲ 1 24h

Anthropic IPO by __? $66,081 · 24h

October 31, 202682%▲ 14 7dSeptember 30, 202616%▼ 7 24hDecember 31, 202690%▲ 2 24hOctober 15, 202648%▼ 6 24h

Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch? $38,968 · 24h

$4B8.5%▲ 6 24h$3B8.9%▲ 5 7d$100M10%▼ 3 24h$1B9.5%▲ 2 24h

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? $96,854 · 24h

↑$1.75T80%▲ 6 7d↑$3.0T30%▲ 2 24h↑$2.5T48%▲ 3 7d↑$1.5T93%▲ 2 7d

Largest Company end of December 2026? $41,469 · 24h

Alphabet9.5%▼ 2 7dNVIDIA74%▲ 1 24hApple14%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? $22,832 · 24h

0 (0 bps)86%▲ 1 7d2 (50 bps)3.4%

Science & Tech

Markets price: Which company has the best AI model end of September? — Anthropic at 90% (+2 pts/7d); Which company has best AI model end of August? — Anthropic at 98% (-1 pts/24h, +1 pts/7d).

Sports

Markets price: PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner — Wyndham Clark at 75% (+44 pts/24h, +50 pts/7d); EWC 2026 CS2: Winner — Team Spirit at 76% (+28 pts/24h, +60 pts/7d).

PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner $44,280 · 24h

Wyndham Clark75%▲ 44 24hGary Woodland1.9%▼ 11 24hChris Gotterup3.1%▼ 6 24hRory McIlroy10%▲ 4 24h

EWC 2026 CS2: Winner $146,540 · 24h

Team Spirit76%▲ 28 24hFUT Esports23%▲ 13 24h

Pro Football: Browns Week 1 Starting QB $21,907 · 24h

Shedeur Sanders51%▲ 32 24hDeshaun Watson49%▼ 33 24h

The International 2026: Winner $710,773 · 24h

Team Spirit44%▲ 22 24hTEAM VISION57%▼ 4 24h

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) $231,619 · 24h

Carlos Alcaraz34%▲ 1 24hAlexander Zverev20%▼ 1 24hArthur Fils5.3%▲ 1 24hNovak Djokovic9.4%▲ 1 24h

EPL: 2027 Champion $491,189 · 24h

Arsenal48%▼ 1 24hManchester City20%▲ 2 24hManchester United5.5%▼ 2 24hTottenham1.6%▼ 1 24h

Culture

Markets price: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? — 25–30M at 92% (+58 pts/24h); "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office — 38-41m at 75% (+38 pts/24h).

# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? $79,859 · 24h

25–30M92%▲ 58 24h30–35M1.5%▼ 22 24h20–25M6.2%▼ 12 24h

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office $64,842 · 24h

38-41m75%▲ 38 24h35-38m22%▼ 32 24h41-44m4.5%▲ 1 24h

# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? $25,494 · 24h