What the world’s prediction markets expect — read as news
Iran Ceasefire Confidence Surges to 94% as Traders Reprice a Quiet September
Markets now give the US-Iran ceasefire a 94% chance of lasting through August, up 40 points in a week, even as a rival Hormuz accord loses ground. Elsewhere, Chelsea's grip on Enzo Fernández evaporated overnight.
Traders have all but priced out a collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, pushing the odds it holds through August 31 to 94%, up 40 points in a week even as a parallel Hormuz shipping accord bleeds support, down to 8% on the same clock. The quiet is not universal: Chelsea's hold on Enzo Fernández evaporated in a single session, his 'stays' contract cratering 41 points to 30% while Manchester City's odds of landing him rocketed to 66%, a mirror-image swing on rising volume. In culture, Spider-Man: Brand New Day's box-office run is outperforming its own market, with bettors now assigning 89% odds to a $800-900m domestic total, up 22 points overnight. And in the crypto pits, Anthropic's prospective IPO valuation is drifting upward too — traders now give a $1.8 trillion-plus close an 86% chance, up 10 points on the day.
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?
90%→6.8%7d
$366,563 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
53%→94%7d
$191,808 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
38%→84%7d
$5,218 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?
46%→7.5%7d
$23,944 traded · 24h
Sports
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?
72%→30%24h
$10,751 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
56%→89%7d
$74,727 traded · 24h
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
33%→67%24h
$19,003 traded · 24h
Culture
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?
41%→7.5%24h
$18,375 traded · 24h
Geopolitics
The US-Iran ceasefire's survival through August 31 now trades at 94%, up 40 points this week, while hopes for a rival Hormuz shipping pact by September 15 have collapsed to 8%, down 38. Russia's advance toward Mykolaivka continues to firm modestly, now priced at 84% by September 30. Traders also lifted the odds of a China summit between Trump and Putin to 55%, up 11 points overnight, as a 'no meeting' outcome faded to 42%.
The Fed's September decision remains a near coin flip: markets give 'no change' a 66% chance against a 34% shot at a 25-bps hike, on very heavy trading. South Carolina's Republican Senate primary is effectively decided as its deadline arrives, with Darline Graham Nordone holding a 66% lead over Ralph Norman. Meanwhile the Clarity Act's odds of becoming law this year slipped to 18%, down 6 points on the day, extending a summer-long fade.
Crypto structured product STRC's odds of hitting $100 by September 30 jumped to 54%, up 16 points on the day and 23 on the week, alongside a broader re-rating of pre-IPO paper: Anthropic's shot at a $1.8 trillion-plus closing valuation rose to 86%, up 10 points, while OpenAI's odds of clearing $1.5 trillion firmed to 48%. Trading in Variational's token launch stayed frothy, with a $2B first-day valuation now given 29% odds, up 5 points overnight.
1.5T+48%▲ 7 24hNo IPO by December 31, 20278.6%▼ 5 24h1.25T–1.5T16%▼ 3 24h1T–1.25T17%▼ 2 24h
Science & Tech
Anthropic's lead in the 'best AI model' market held firm at 91% for late September, essentially unchallenged by OpenAI's 6% and Google's 2%. GPT-6's odds of shipping by year-end ticked up to 70%, while a September 15 release was marked down to 12%. In the Google Trends market, Erling Haaland's lead as most-searched person of 2026 narrowed to 13%, down 6 points, as Nicolás Maduro climbed to 12%.
The day's sharpest reversal came in the transfer market: Enzo Fernández's odds of staying at Chelsea collapsed 41 points to 30%, while Manchester City's odds of signing him rocketed to 66% on rising volume. Julian Alvarez's market stayed calmer, with Atlético Madrid favored at 54%. In tennis, Carlos Alcaraz remains the US Open favorite at 30%, and Arsenal's grip on the 2027 EPL title firmed to 52%.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's domestic haul is tracking toward the $800-900m band, now priced at 89%, up 22 points overnight as actuals roll in. The Odyssey's shot at clearing $570m by August 31 collapsed to 8%, down 34 points, as its total settles into the $550-570m band instead, now favored at 92%. MrBeast's next upload, meanwhile, saw its 60-70 million-view odds surge 34 points to 67% in a single day.